Baowu
Pakistan
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.
Canada
Source: iStock / Getty Images Plus
Photographer: Christian Petersen-Clausen via Getty Images
Sources: country CO2 emissions are from BP, which reflects only carbon emissions through consumption of oil, gas and coal for combustion related activities and natural gas flaring; company-level emissions estimates done by CREA
Sources: country CO2 emissions are from BP; company-level emissions estimates done by CREA
Top 5 emitters were responsible for 60% of the global CO2 emissions in 2019
CHINA
U.S.
INDIA
RUSSIA
JAPAN
The world's top five polluters were responsible for 60% of global emissions in 2019. China alone generated about the same amount of CO2 as the next four countries combined. And its carbon output is still rising every year.
China’s emissions are so vast that its biggest companies, few of which are household names, create more pollution than entire nations. China Baowu, the world’s top steelmaker, put more CO2 into the atmosphere last year than Pakistan.
Take state-owned oil giant Sinopec Group. One of its subsidiaries, China Petroleum & Chemical, contributed more to global warming last year than Canada, itself an emissions heavyweight with the 11th-most CO2 among nations.
China’s biggest companies have more sway over warming temperatures than most countries. Yet little is known about the emissions from these state-run giants. Until now.
The Chinese Companies Polluting the World More Than Entire Nations
Curbing China’s output of greenhouse gas will do more than almost anything else at this point to decide the fate of the planet. That primacy comes from being, by far, the world’s top source of new emissions. But few outside of the Chinese government can examine the true drivers of this crucial planet-warming pollution: dozens of gigantic state-run companies.
As world leaders and diplomats head to Glasgow, Scotland, to discuss how to keep rising temperatures in check, understanding the role of China’s industrial titans has never been more important. These companies won’t be party to United Nations-backed negotiations. Yet no deal will be effective in practice without their strong cooperation.
China’s companies drove the country’s greenhouse gas emissions above those of all developed nations combined in 2019, according to a study by Rhodium Group. To deliver on President Xi Jinping’s promise to zero out emissions by 2060, these same companies will have to shift away from dirty energy, embrace new technologies and change the way they operate.
“Emissions of numerous state-owned enterprises in the power, steel, cement, oil refining, and other major emitting sectors are equal to those of entire nations,” says Lauri Myllyvirta, an analyst with the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air who produced the estimates used in this project. “Once these enterprises align their investments and business plans with the emissions-neutrality target, they can make an enormous contribution, if they choose to.”
To measure the task ahead, CREA, a Finland-based environmental research group, focused on some of the largest emitters in China’s most-polluting sectors. Companies were chosen based on the availability of public data showing metrics such as coal use and manufacturing capacity, drawn from financial statements of listed units and corporate sustainability reports.
All the estimates include emissions from company operations and electricity use. In sectors where significant greenhouse gases are generated along the supply chain, CREA added those estimates as well. Doing so takes into account the steel used to build cars and the gasoline required to power them, as well as emissions from burning oil products and steel or cement used in construction.
In some cases these emissions overlap, as when Petrochina Co.’s gasoline fuels cars built by SAIC Motor Corp. Experts argue that holding both companies accountable for the same gallon of gasoline raises the chance that those emissions will be eliminated, whether at the source or by the end user. None of the companies responded to questions about their emissions.
158M
metric tons of CO2 equivalent
SAIC MOTOR CORP.
HOW TO READ THE CHART
Similar to the the CO2 emissions of
Argentina
Estimated carbon emission of the company
AUTOMOBILE
Direct emissions reported by the company, if available
Close to the greenhouse gas emissions avoided by 13,300 wind turbines running for a year
64M
Chang'an
Automobile
Group
59M
Beijing
Automotive
Group
211M
metric tons of CO2 equivalent
STEEL
102M
Dongfeng
MOTOR CORP.
China Baowu Group
Equivalent to the carbon sequestered by 1 billion tree seedlings growing for a decade
More than the CO2 emissions of
Belgium and Austria combined
63M
SHOUGANG
GROUP
Equivalent to the carbon sequestered by 72 million acres of U.S. forests in one year
103M
China FAW
Group Corp.
Similar to the energy-related CO2 emissions of New Jersey
More than the CO2 emissions of Bangladesh
57M
SHANDONG STEEL
GROUP
Equivalent to the GHG emissions of New York City
Direct carbon emissions reported by the companies
69M
ANSTEEL
GROUP
77M
sHAGANG
GROUP
THERMAL POWER*
Similar to GHG emissions of Chicago and New Delhi combined
69M
JIANLONG
GROUP
81M
HBIS
GROUP
Equivalent to the energy-related CO2 emissions from U.S. state of Indiana
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions from European international aviation bunkers
189M
Datang International
Power Generation Co.
Similar to the GHG emissions of Tokyo
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions from charging 9.8 trillion smartphones
155M
Huadian Power Intl.
50M
China Power IntL.
Development
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions from annual energy use of 6 million U.S. homes
733M
China Petroleum
& Chemical Corp.
Similar to the CO2 emissions of
Spain and Canada combined
255M
GD Power
Development Co.
PETROCHEMICAL
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions of
Malaysia
317M
HUANENG POWER Intl.
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions from
the U.K.
Petrochemical companies have a more complicated task when it comes to carbon neutralization since most of its emissions happen far away from their production sites, at car tailpipes or gas stovetops.
881M
PetroChina Company Limited
More than the CO2 emissions of
Vietnam and South Korea combined
In some sectors, companies do publish data about their emissions, though there’s little detail on how those calculations are made.
CONSTRUCTION
255M
China National Building
Material Group
Similar to the CO2 emissions of
France
61M
Aluminum Corp.
of China
Equivalent to the greenhouse gas emissions from 13.3 million cars driving for one year
158M
metric tons of CO2 equivalent
HOW TO READ THE CHART
SAIC MOTOR CORP.
Estimated carbon emission of the company
Similar to the the CO2 emissions of
Argentina
Direct emissions reported by the company, if available
AUTOMOBILE
Close to the greenhouse gas emissions avoided by 13,300 wind turbines running for a year
64M
Chang'an
Automobile
Group
59M
Beijing
Automotive
Group
102M
Dongfeng
MOTOR CORP.
Equivalent to the carbon sequestered by 72 million acres of U.S. forests in one year
103M
China FAW
Group Corp.
Similar to the energy-related CO2 emissions of New Jersey
More than the CO2 emissions of Bangladesh
Direct carbon emissions reported by the companies
211M
metric tons of CO2 equivalent
STEEL
China Baowu Group
Equivalent to the carbon sequestered by 1 billion tree seedlings growing for a decade
More than the CO2 emissions of
Belgium and Austria combined
63M
SHOUGANG
GROUP
57M
SHANDONG STEEL
GROUP
Equivalent to the GHG emissions of New York City
69M
ANSTEEL
GROUP
77M
sHAGANG
GROUP
Similar to GHG emissions of Chicago and New Delhi combined
69M
JIANLONG
GROUP
81M
HBIS
GROUP
Similar to the GHG emissions of Tokyo
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions from charging 9.8 trillion smartphones
THERMAL POWER*
Equivalent to the energy-related CO2 emissions from U.S. state of Indiana
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions from European international aviation bunkers
189M
Datang International
Power Generation Co.
155M
Huadian Power Intl.
50M
China Power IntL.
Development
317M
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions from annual energy use of 6 million U.S. homes
HUANENG POWER Intl.
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions from
the U.K.
255M
GD Power
Development Co.
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions of
Malaysia
733M
China Petroleum
& Chemical Corp.
Similar to the CO2 emissions of
Spain and Canada combined
PETROCHEMICAL
Petrochemical companies have a more complicated task when it comes to carbon neutralization since most of its emissions happen far away from their production sites, at car tailpipes or gas stovetops.
881M
PetroChina Company Limited
More than the CO2 emissions of
Vietnam and South Korea combined
In some sectors, companies do publish data about their emissions, though there’s little detail on how those calculations are made.
255M
CONSTRUCTION
China National Building
Material Group
Similar to the CO2 emissions of
France
61M
Aluminum Corp.
of China
Equivalent to the greenhouse gas emissions from 13.3 million cars driving for one year
158M
metric tons of CO2 equivalent
HOW TO READ THE CHART
Estimated carbon emission
of the company
SAIC MOTOR CORP.
Direct emissions reported
by the company, if available
Similar to the the CO2 emissions of
Argentina
AUTOMOBILE
Close to the greenhouse gas emissions avoided by 13,300 wind turbines running for a year
64M
Chang'an
Automobile
Group
59M
Beijing
Automotive
Group
102M
Dongfeng
MOTOR CORP.
Equivalent to the carbon sequestered by 72 million acres of U.S. forests in one year
103M
China FAW
Group Corp.
Similar to the energy-related CO2 emissions of New Jersey
More than the CO2 emissions of Bangladesh
Direct carbon emissions reported by the companies
211M
metric tons of CO2 equivalent
STEEL
China Baowu Group
Equivalent to the carbon sequestered by 1 billion tree seedlings growing for a decade
More than the CO2 emissions of
Belgium and Austria combined
63M
SHOUGANG
GROUP
57M
SHANDONG STEEL
GROUP
Equivalent to the GHG emissions of New York City
69M
ANSTEEL
GROUP
77M
sHAGANG
GROUP
Similar to GHG emissions of Chicago and New Delhi combined
69M
JIANLONG
GROUP
81M
HBIS
GROUP
Similar to the GHG emissions of Tokyo
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions from charging 9.8 trillion smartphones
THERMAL POWER*
Equivalent to the energy-related CO2 emissions from U.S. state of Indiana
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions from European international aviation bunkers
189M
Datang International
Power Generation Co.
155M
Huadian Power Intl.
50M
China Power IntL.
Development
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions from annual energy use of 6 million U.S. homes
255M
GD Power
Development Co.
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions of
Malaysia
317M
HUANENG POWER Intl.
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions from
the U.K.
733M
PETROCHEMICAL
China Petroleum
& Chemical Corp.
Similar to the CO2 emissions of
Spain and Canada combined
881M
PetroChina Company Limited
More than the CO2 emissions of
Vietnam and South Korea combined
In some sectors, companies do publish data about their emissions, though there’s little detail on how those calculations are made.
255M
China National Building
Material Group
CONSTRUCTION
Similar to the CO2 emissions of
France
61M
Aluminum Corp.
of China
Equivalent to the greenhouse gas emissions from 13.3 million cars driving for one year
HOW TO READ THE CHART
Estimated carbon
emission of
the company
Direct emissions
reported by
the company
158M
metric tons of CO2 equivalent
saic motor corp.
Similar to the the CO2 emissions of
Argentina
AUTOMOBILE
59M
Beijing
Automobile
Group
Direct carbon emissions reported by the companies
102M
Dongfeng
MOTOR CORP.
103M
China FAW
Group Corp.
Similar to the energy-related CO2 emissions of New Jersey
64M
Changan
Automotive
Group
More than the CO2 emissions of Bangladesh
Similar to the GHG emissions of Tokyo
Similar to GHG emissions of Chicago and New Delhi combined
STEEL
77M
sHAGANG
GROUP
69M
ANSTEEL
GROUP
211M
China Baowu Group
More than the CO2 emissions of
Belgium and Austria combined
63M
SHOUGANG
GROUP
69M
JIANLONG
GROUP
81M
HBIS
GROUP
57M
SHANDONG
STEEL
GROUP
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions from charging 9.8 trillion smartphones
THERMAL POWER*
50M
China Power
International
Development
155M
Huadian Power Intl.
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions from European international aviation bunkers
317M
HUANENG POWER Intl.
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions from
the U.K.
189M
Datang International
Power Generation Co.
Equivalent to the energy-related CO2 emissions from U.S. state of Indiana
255M
GD Power
Development Co.
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions of
Malaysia
733M
China Petroleum
& Chemical Corp.
PETROCHEMICAL
Similar to the CO2 emissions of
Spain and Canada combined
171M
167M
881M
PetroChina Company Limited
More than the CO2 emissions of
Vietnam and South Korea combined
In some sectors, companies do publish data about their emissions, though there’s little detail on how those calculations are made.
CONSTRUCTION
255M
China National Building
Material Group
Similar to the CO2 emissions of
France
61M
Aluminum Corp.
of China
Equivalent to the greenhouse gas emissions from 13.3 million cars driving for one year
HOW TO READ THE CHART
Estimated carbon
emission of
the company
Direct emissions
reported by
the company
158M
metric tons of CO2 equivalent
saic motor corp.
Similar to the the CO2 emissions of
Argentina
AUTOMOBILE
59M
Beijing
Automobile
Group
Direct carbon emissions reported by the companies
102M
Dongfeng
MOTOR CORP.
103M
China FAW
Group Corp.
Similar to the energy-related CO2 emissions of New Jersey
64M
Changan
Automotive
Group
More than the CO2 emissions of Bangladesh
Similar to the GHG emissions of Tokyo
Similar to GHG emissions of Chicago and New Delhi combined
STEEL
77M
sHAGANG
GROUP
69M
ANSTEEL
GROUP
211M
China Baowu Group
More than the CO2 emissions of
Belgium and Austria combined
63M
SHOUGANG
GROUP
69M
JIANLONG
GROUP
81M
HBIS
GROUP
57M
SHANDONG STEEL
GROUP
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions from charging 9.8 trillion smartphones
THERMAL POWER*
155M
Huadian Power Intl.
50M
China Power
IntL.
Development
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions from European international aviation bunkers
317M
HUANENG POWER Intl.
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions from
the U.K.
189M
Datang International
Power Generation Co.
Equivalent to the energy-related CO2 emissions from U.S. state of Indiana
255M
GD Power
Development Co.
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions of
Malaysia
733M
China Petroleum
& Chemical Corp.
PETROCHEMICAL
Similar to the CO2 emissions of
Spain and Canada combined
171M
167M
881M
PetroChina Company Ltd.
More than the CO2 emissions of
Vietnam and South Korea combined
In some sectors, companies do publish data about their emissions, though there’s little detail on how those calculations are made.
CONSTRUCTION
255M
China National Building
Material Group
Similar to the CO2 emissions of
France
61M
Aluminum Corp.
of China
Equivalent to the greenhouse gas emissions from 13.3 million cars driving for one year
HOW TO READ THE CHART
Estimated carbon
emission of
the company
Direct emissions
reported by
the company
158M
metric tons of CO2 equivalent
saic motor corp.
Similar to the the CO2 emissions of
Argentina
AUTOMOBILE
59M
Beijing
Automobile
Group
102M
Dongfeng
MOTOR CORP.
Direct carbon emissions reported by the companies
103M
China FAW
Group Corp.
Similar to the energy-related CO2 emissions of New Jersey
64M
Changan
Automotive
Group
More than the CO2 emissions of Bangladesh
211M
China Baowu Group
More than the CO2 emissions of
Belgium and Austria combined
Similar to GHG emissions of Chicago and New Delhi combined
STEEL
77M
sHAGANG
GROUP
69M
ANSTEEL
GROUP
63M
SHOUGANG
GROUP
69M
JIANLONG
GROUP
81M
HBIS
GROUP
57M
SHANDONG
STEEL
GROUP
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions from charging 9.8 trillion smartphones
THERMAL POWER*
50M
China Power
IntERNATIONAL
Development
155M
Huadian Power Intl.
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions from European international aviation bunkers
317M
HUANENG POWER Intl.
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions from
the U.K.
189M
Datang International
Power Generation Co.
Equivalent to the energy-related CO2 emissions from U.S. state of Indiana
255M
GD Power
Development Co.
Equivalent to the CO2 emissions of
Malaysia
733M
China Petroleum
& Chemical Corp.
Similar to the CO2 emissions of
Spain and Canada combined
PETROCHEMICAL
171M
167M
881M
PetroChina Company LTD.
More than the CO2 emissions of
Vietnam and South Korea combined
In some sectors, companies do publish data about their emissions, though there’s little detail on how those calculations are made.
CONSTRUCTION
255M
China National Building
Material Group
Similar to the CO2 emissions of
France
61M
Aluminum Corp.
of China
Equivalent to the greenhouse gas emissions from 13.3 million cars driving for one year
*Only includes emissions from thermal power units within the companies
China says it will soon release a detailed road map for reaching peak emissions by the end of the decade. Meanwhile government agencies and state-owned companies have announced plans that signal a much faster buildout of clean power and energy storage than official targets suggest. Still, China won’t promise to start reducing coal use until 2026, and is trying to boost output by 100 million tons by the end of the year to ease power shortages.
While Xi announced in September that China will stop building coal plants overseas, Beijing has pushed back against international demands to stop using the dirtiest fossil fuel at home. Officials argue that its current goal will be the most ambitious emissions reduction ever attempted. They also point out that developed countries, which are responsible for the bulk of the greenhouse gases that have accumulated in the atmosphere, are also struggling to meet their own climate targets.
But China is in a category by itself today. CREA estimates that the country generated greenhouse gases equivalent to more than 13 billion tons of CO₂ in 2019, mostly from manufacturing and construction. The top emitter of all time, the U.S., has curbed emissions to produce just about half of that, 6.6 billion tons, according to the country’s Environmental Protection Agency.
Estimated Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector in China
GHG emissions
generated by
this sector
MANUFACTURING
>3.8b
metric tons
of CO2
equivalent
Emissions from direct
coal consumption
Consumption of
other fuels
Consumption of
electricity and heat
401M
311M
422M
Electricity and heat usage was responsible for more than a third of carbon emissions in manufacturing.
More than 75% of the energy in China is still generated by burning coal and oil.
Chemical products
Metal consumption
Machinery
Processing of Petroleum
Coal and Other Fuels
Automobile
is a major source of emissions from manufacturing automobiles and machinery.
OTHER MANUFACTURING
China adds about 2 billion square meters of new buildings annually, one-third of global total.
More than 90% of the carbon emissions come from materials used; the steel industry alone burns more than a fifth of China’s coal.
CONSTRUCTION
Cement & glass consumption
Metal consumption
>3.9b
1.67B
2.12B
RESIDENTIAL
Emissions from fluorinated gases used by air conditioners
>2.2b
775M
People in cities are responsible for more carbon emissions per capita than those in rural areas, partly because urban households own more electronic devices.
URBAN
RURAL
More than half of China’s oil is used for transportation, according to the International Energy Agency.
TRANSPORT & LOGISTICS
>870M
AGRICULTURE & FORESTRY
Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions
>500M
Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions
MINING
>480M
WHOLESALE & RETAIL
>290M
OTHERS
HOW TO READ THIS CHART
GHG emissions generated by this sector
Emission sources
MANUFACTURING
>3.8B metric tons of CO2 equivalent
Chemical products
1.1b
Emissions from coal
consumption
Usage of
other fuels
Usage of
electricity and heat
Electricity and heat usage was responsible for more than a third of carbon emissions in manufacturing.
More than 75% of the energy in China is still generated by burning coal and oil.
401M
311M
422M
Machinery
504m
Metal consumption
Processing of Petroleum Coal
and Other Fuels
501m
Automobile
409m
OTHER MANUFACTURING
1.0b
is a major source of emissions from manufacturing automobiles and machinery.
CONSTRUCTION
>3.9B
Cement & glass
consumption
Metal consumption
1.67B
2.12B
China adds about 2 billion square meters of new buildings annually, one-third of global total.
More than 90% of the carbon emissions come from materials used; the steel industry alone burns more than a fifth of China’s coal.
RESIDENTIAL
>2.2B
1.5b
urban
Emissions from fluorinated gases used by air conditioners
775m
People in cities are responsible for more carbon emissions per capita than those in rural areas, partly because urban households own more electronic devices.
RURAL
740m
TRANSPORT & LOGISTICS
>870M
More than half of China’s oil is used for transportation, according to the International Energy Agency.
AGRICULTURE & FORESTRY
>500M
Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions
MINING
>480M
Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions
RETAIL & WHOLESALE
>290M
OTHERS
HOW TO READ THIS CHART
GHG emissions generated by this sector
Emission sources
MANUFACTURING
>3.8B metric tons of CO2 equivalent
Chemical products
1.1b
Emissions from coal
consumption
Usage of
other fuels
Usage of
electricity and heat
401M
311M
422M
Machinery
504m
Metal consumption
Processing of Petroleum Coal
and Other Fuels
501m
Automobile
409m
OTHER MANUFACTURING
1.0b
Electricity and heat usage was responsible for more than a third of carbon emissions in manufacturing.
More than 75% of the energy in China is still generated by burning coal and oil.
CONSTRUCTION
>3.9B
Cement & glass
consumption
Metal consumption
1.67B
2.12B
China adds about 2 billion square meters of new buildings annually, one-third of global total.
More than 90% of the carbon emissions come from materials used; the steel industry alone burns more than a fifth of China’s coal.
RESIDENTIAL
>2.2B
RURAL
740m
1.5b
urban
Emissions from fluorinated gases used by air conditioners
775m
People in cities are responsible for more carbon emissions per capita than those in rural areas, partly because urban households own more electronic devices.
TRANSPORT & LOGISTICS
>870M
More than half of China’s oil is used for transportation, according to the International Energy Agency.
AGRICULTURE & FORESTRY
>500M
Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions
MINING
>480M
Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions
RETAIL & WHOLESALE
>290M
OTHERS
HOW TO READ THIS CHART
GHG emissions generated by this sector
Emission sources
MANUFACTURING
>3.8B metric tons of CO2 equivalent
Chemical products
1.1b
Emissions from coal
consumption
Usage of
other fuels
Usage of
electricity and heat
401M
311M
422M
Machinery
504m
Metal consumption
Processing of Petroleum Coal
and Other Fuels
501m
Automobile
409m
OTHER MANUFACTURING
1.0b
Electricity and heat usage was responsible for more than a third of carbon emissions in manufacturing.
More than 75% of the energy in China is still generated by burning coal and oil.
CONSTRUCTION
>3.9B
Cement & glass
consumption
Metal consumption
1.67B
2.12B
China adds about 2 billion square meters of new buildings annually, one-third of global total.
More than 90% of the carbon emissions come from materials used; the steel industry alone burns more than a fifth of China’s coal.
RESIDENTIAL
>2.2B
RURAL
740m
1.5b
urban
Emissions from fluorinated gases used by air conditioners
775m
People in cities are responsible for more carbon emissions per capita than those in rural areas, partly because urban households own more electronic devices.
TRANSPORT & LOGISTICS
>870M
More than half of China’s oil is used for transportation, according to the International Energy Agency.
AGRICULTURE & FORESTRY
>500M
Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions
MINING
>480M
Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions
RETAIL & WHOLESALE
>290M
OTHERS
Coal
Other fuels
Electricity and heat
Metal
Cement and glass
Others
There are several factors in China’s favor as it works to decarbonize. Solar and wind power are now often cheaper than fossil fuels. Electric vehicle and battery technology has matured, and China is a leader in both. Investment in green technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture is at an all-time high, increasing the likelihood of deployment on a large scale.
“Emissions have been increasing much faster in 2021, instead of slowing down,” says Myllyvirta. This suggests that China expects other countries to make up for a slower start in its own emissions reduction. But, he says “there is hope that emissions could turn around fast, if energy policy and economic policy pull in the same direction.”
How China Can Tame Its Biggest Emitters
Thermal power supply
33%
of national CO2-equivalent emissions
China’s biggest task is to green its electricity sector. That means shutting down thousands of coal-fired power plants and dramatically increasing clean energy. The nation already leads the world in renewables and just kicked off a massive 100 gigawatt project in the desert that will be bigger than all the wind and solar installed in India today.
China’s Roadmap to Net Zero
Estimates
100% of energy supply
WIND, SOLAR
& OTHER RENEWABLES
BIOFUELS
& WASTE
75
OIL
NATURAL GAS
HYDRO
50
NUCLEAR
COAL
25
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2060
100% of
energy supply
Estimates
WIND, SOLAR
& OTHERS
RENEWABLES
BIOFUELS
& WASTE
75
OIL
NATURAL GAS
HYDRO
50
NUCLEAR
COAL
25
0
1990
2000
’10
’20
’30
’40
’60
100% of
energy supply
Estimates
WIND, SOLAR
& OTHERS
RENEWABLES
BIOFUELS
& WASTE
75
OIL
NATURAL GAS
HYDRO
50
NUCLEAR
COAL
25
0
1990
2000
’10
’20
’30
’40
’60
Estimates
100% of
energy supply
WIND, SOLAR
& OTHERS
RENEWABLES
BIOFUELS
& WASTE
75
OIL
NATURAL GAS
HYDRO
50
NUCLEAR
COAL
25
0
2000
’20
’40
’60
Known as the Big Five, China’s top utilities—Huaneng Group Co., Huadian Corp., China Energy Investment Corp., State Power Investment Corp, and Datang Co.—are some of the world’s largest polluters.
The parent corporations aren’t listed. However, all five companies have public units that report figures for coal consumption and thermal power generation. In 2020, emissions from those operations alone added up to 960 million tons of CO₂, more than double that of Russia’s entire coal fleet.
The Big Five have pledged to reach peak emissions by 2025, but power demand is still increasing and coal has been promoted by government officials as a way to maintain energy security—especially as the world grapples with a shortage heading into winter. In the first half of this year, state-owned firms proposed 43 new coal-fired generators and construction began on 15GW of new coal-power capacity.
Steel
21%
of national CO2-equivalent emissions
More than a fifth of China’s coal is burned by the steel industry. Emissions from the sector soared more than 40% from 2010 to 2020, even as the average energy use per ton of steel has fallen.
The industry has pledged to cut emissions by 30% from its peak by the end of the decade, in part by replacing hundreds of millions of tons of aging capacity with newer and cleaner equipment. But the initiative risks extending the use of blast furnace technology and locking the sector into further coal dependency.
Beijing’s other tool is to cap steel output. The government wants this year’s production to be below that of 2020. Manufacturing surged to an all-time high in the first half, meaning there needs to be an 11% year-on-year drop in the final six months.
Domestic Demand for Steel Remains Strong
1,000 million metric tons
CONSUMED
DOMESTICALLY
750
500
More and more steel produced in China was consumed domestically
250
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
EXPORTED
250
6.2% of steel produced in China was exported to more than 200 countries and territories
1,000 million metric tons
CONSUMED
DOMESTICALLY
750
500
More and more steel produced in China was consumed domestically
250
0
2009
2014
2019
EXPORTED
6.2% of steel produced in China was exported to more than 200 countries and territories
250
1,000 million metric tons
CONSUMED
DOMESTICALLY
750
500
More and more steel produced in China was consumed domestically
250
0
2009
2014
2019
EXPORTED
6.2% of steel produced in China was exported to more than 200 countries and territories
250
1,000 million metric tons
CONSUMED
DOMESTICALLY
750
500
More and more steel produced in China was consumed domestically
250
0
2009
2014
2019
EXPORTED
6.2% of steel produced in China was exported to more than 200 countries and territories
250
Companies are testing new technologies that could help cut emissions. Baowu is piloting the use of microwaves during the sintering process to replace coal. It also plans to build a 1-million-ton furnace that will use hydrogen generated from renewable energy. HBIS Group and Jianlong Group, two other major steel producers, are also starting to dabble in hydrogen, even though it’s still five times more expensive than traditional methods.
“China does have a good foundation for scaling large-scale deployment of green hydrogen,” says Wu Changhua, senior researcher at Beijing-based think tank Center for China and Globalization. Green steel is expected to grow faster than the government originally envisioned, she says, and starting to generate hydrogen from fossil fuels could help accelerate the shift to 100% carbon-free hydrogen.
Construction
30%
of national CO2-equivalent emissions
Includes steel and cement production
China is constructing skyscrapers and shopping malls at breakneck speed as its cities boom. Putting up new buildings was responsible for about 4 billion tons of CO₂ in 2019, according to CREA’s estimates, with 95% of that coming from the production of materials such as steel and cement.
And that doesn’t include the emissions from running the buildings. Existing properties generate 2.1 billion tons of CO₂ a year, according to the Chinese Society for Urban Studies, mainly from electricity use, heating, and cooling.
Built-up area
SUZHOU
SHANGHAI
10KM
10MILE
2000
2014
2020
Shanghai
XIAOGAN
WUHAN
10KM
10MILE
2000
2014
2020
Wuhan, Hubei Province
GUIYANG
10KM
10MILE
2000
2014
2020
Guiyang, Guizhou Province
Sources: Global Human Settlement, European Commission (2000, 2014); Esri 2020 Land Cover; aerial images from Bing Maps
A government clampdown on debt-fueled real estate companies, including China Evergrande Group, could help cut those emissions. But it’s also a major risk to China’s economy and threatens to create a wave of defaults if it isn’t properly managed.
Decarbonizing the sector will also come down to finding greener materials. Cement production is one of the worst-polluting sectors in China because the plants are coal fueled and energy intensive.
One solution is to capture carbon and store it away. Anhui Conch Group Co., China’s No. 2 cement maker, has invested 60 million yuan to separate and purify 50,000 tons of CO₂ at one of its plants. China National Building Material Group Co. , the nation’s biggest materials producer, says it’s making an effort to replace coal with solar and biomass and upgrade its furnaces to improve combustion efficiency.
Petrochemical
14%
of national CO2-equivalent emissions
Includes oil and gas production and refining, as well as chemical manufacturing
China’s oil giants in some ways have a more complicated task than their power and steel brethren. While those firms produce the vast majority of their emissions at on-site generators or mills, most oil and gas emissions happen far away from the source, at car tailpipes or gas stovetops.
Sinopec Group, the country’s largest oil refiner, and China National Petroleum Corp., the largest oil and gas producer, both aim to reach peak emissions by 2025 and net-zero by midcentury. According to their own reports, PetroChina—the listed arm of CNPC—emitted 167.4 million tons of CO₂ in 2020, while its Sinopec counterpart—called China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.—added 171 million tons.
Those targets don’t cover emissions from the burning of their products. Adding them brings emissions to 881 million tons for PetroChina and 733 million tons for Sinopec, according to CREA. To cut those so-called Scope 3 emissions, “China’s oil companies will also have to develop new business opportunities that help them shift away from fossil fuels,” says BloombergNEF analyst Luxi Hong. But that will be difficult if the government maintains a “mandate of maintaining and growing the core oil and gas business.”
Between now and 2025, operations will start at 10 mega-refining projects able to process more than 200 million tons of crude a year. By the middle of the decade the country’s total refining capacity is set to grow to 1 billion tons a year.
One saving grace is that as the world moves toward electric transportation, refiners are shifting their businesses away from fuel and toward chemicals, which make everyday products from washing powder to plastics. At least with those goods, some of oil’s carbon stays trapped in polymer chains instead of wafting into the atmosphere after being burned.
Transportation
7%
of national CO2-equivalent emissions
Includes burning of gasoline by cars and steel production
More than half of China’s oil is used for transportation. So far the government has focused on shrinking those emissions by boosting a nationwide electric vehicle fleet that’s already by far the biggest in the world. Planners want one in every five new cars sold to be a new EV by 2025, up from 5% now. Combined with ever-greener power generation, that’s the best bet to reduce carbon while still moving people and goods around.
1.4%
of passenger vehicles on the road are battery EVs
By 2040, it’s estimated their share will be more than
60%
2020
2030
2040
1.4%
of passenger vehicles on the road are battery EVs
By 2040, it’s estimated their share will be more than
60%
2020
2030
2040
1.4%
of passenger vehicles on the road are battery EVs
2020
2030
By 2040, it’s estimated their share will be more than
60%
2040
1.4%
of passenger vehicles on the road are battery EVs
2020
2030
By 2040, it’s estimated their share will be more than
60%
2040
Still, just putting automobiles together in massive, energy-hungry factories carries a heavy toll on the environment. SAIC Motor Corp, the country’s biggest manufacturer, generated 98 million tons of CO₂ from its operations, electricity use, and steel production in 2020, according to CREA’s calculations. Adding the emissions from driving all the vehicles the company has sold so far brings it to 158 million tons.
Passenger vehicles are relatively easy to electrify, but answers are harder to come by for heavier equipment like trucks, trains, airplanes, and ships, all of which are growing rapidly. Possible solutions, such as hydrogen and ammonia, are far from being economically viable.
Agriculture
11%
of national CO2-equivalent emissions
Estimate is based on studies using 2014 data, the latest available, and includes methane generation
Feeding the world’s biggest population generates a lot of greenhouse gas. According to researchers from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, energy use has surpassed fertilizers to become the biggest source of CO₂ emissions from the sector as processes become more mechanized. In 2019 the industry’s energy consumption was responsible for 188 million tons of CO₂ emissions, according to CREA.
And that’s not even counting the methane produced by China’s pigs and cows. The superpotent greenhouse gas traps 80 times more heat than CO₂ in its first two decades in the atmosphere. In 2020, China reared more than two-thirds of the pigs raised for meat consumption worldwide.
The top five pig-breeding companies in China together raised 48.6 million pigs that produced 14 million tons of CO₂ equivalent, according to CREA. That was only a tenth of China’s national herd, which is set to grow as incomes rise and citizens—already the top pork consumers in the world—add more meat to their diets.
“The land use sector, including agriculture, has been long neglected,” says Li Shuo, an analyst with Greenpeace East Asia. “If China is serious about carbon neutrality, it can’t afford to turn its head away from this sizable source of emissions. As the to-do list for the power and transportation sectors become clear, the land sector needs to play some urgent catch-up.”
How we estimated the Greenhouse Gas emissions by sector
Analysts at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air calculated sector-level CO2 emissions using 2019 data from the China Energy Statistical Yearbook, which provides energy consumption data by each sector.
Emissions factors for different fuel categories used in the Yearbook reporting were adopted from National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) reporting guidelines for counting greenhouse gas emissions.
To capture a fuller picture of sector-level GHG emissions, in addition to emissions from energy consumption, the analysts also used other sources to estimate GHG emissions from cement consumption, as well as other greenhouse gases from agriculture, air conditioning, and coal mining.
Emissions from the production of power and heat were allocated to consuming sectors. Our analysis also allocated emissions from construction materials to the construction sector, instead of manufacturing, based on various reports and estimates of the proportion of steel and other metals and non-metallic minerals used for construction.
How we estimated company-level GHG emissions
Petrochemicals
For direct emissions, we used self-reported figures from the companies. We calculated emissions from fuels sold using oil refinery throughput and gas production numbers reported by the companies and applied the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) default CO2 emissions factors.
Thermal power
The estimate is based on heat rate and thermal power generation from companies’ annual reports, as well as the National Development and Reform Commission’s (NDRC) default emissions factor for coal.
Steel
Our estimate used company-reported steel production and energy consumption per ton of steel. When the latter was not reported by the company, we used the median for all companies reporting. The average CO2 emission factor of energy input into steelmaking was calculated on an annual basis from national-level energy statistics.
Agriculture
GHG emissions from the top five pig-breeding companies are estimated for farming only. Annual emissions from the pig production system is based on data from a study by researchers from South China Agricultural University. CREA analysts allocated emissions to the five companies according to their share of the national pig herd.
Automobile
To estimate carbon emissions from car manufacturing, including indirect emissions from electricity and steel use, we calculated total emissions from the sector based on reported energy consumption, and estimated the share of steel, other metals, and glass used for autos. We then allocated production emissions to companies based on their reported number of vehicles produced in 2020, according to data obtained from China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM).
Carbon emissions from driving vehicles produced by SAIC Motor Corp. was estimated based on the total number of vehicles the company has sold so far.