e-fundresearch: Welche fundamentalen Faktoren sind für die Bewertung von China Aktien derzeit am wichtigsten?
Martha Wang, "Fidelity Funds - China Focus A" (10.12.2009): "Concerns regarding the sustainability of economic recovery in China have abated, with continued strength shown in the latest set of economic data. Investors have now shifted focus towards questions about the withdrawal of policy measures undertaken to stimulate domestic demand. I expect monetary policy to be further fine-tuned, but real tightening measures are not likely to be introduced until next year. Annual inflation remains muted even though rising food prices are stoking inflation expectations. The extreme measures that were previously undertaken to stimulate and support economic growth can be scaled back as the economy has now gained traction."
Martin Lau, Director Greater China Equities, "First State Greater China Growth I" & "First State Greater China Growth A GBP Acc" (16.12.2009): "We are bottom-up fund managers with a preference for quality companies trading at reasonable valuations. In any economic climate, it is important to invest in companies with steady cashflows and strong balance sheets. "
Agnes Deng, Director - Asian Equities - Baring Asset Management (Hong Kong), "Baring Hong Kong China USD" (17.12.2009): "In terms of stock selection strategy, following the strong rebound of the overall market from distressed levels, we are emphasizing earnings delivery in China. The earnings visibility of the company is assessed together with the valuation and how our view differs from market expectations. We expect earnings delivery to be a key differentiating factor in terms of individual stock’s performance."
Samantha Ho, "Invesco PRC Equity USD A" (14.12.2009): "We look into 4 main criteria when assessing China stocks:
• Valuation - based on a number of valuation criteria including - P/E (prospective), P/B, PCF, PFCF, premium or discount to NAV, DDM, ROE, relative to historic, sector, market
• Management / franchise value determination – management and ownership, earnings quality, balance sheet quality, product quality
• Earnings growth - EPS growth, growth in market share, origin of growth
• Liquidity – days to get in / out, total turnover"
Allan Christensen, Portfolio Manager Chinese and Far Eastern Equities, "Jyske Invest Chinese Equities" (16.12.2009): "In our investment process we are looking for relatively cheap stocks with rising earnings momentum and a high (and rising) CFROI. We have an in-house developed quant model that can help identify and compare stocks with these criteria. In addition to this we are also trying to find top-down themes that can secure that the earnings momentum continues. Both criteria are currently very important.
Due to the government efforts to boost domestic consumption we have strong focus on stocks that will benefit from these initiatives."
Thomas Rose, Head Investment & Risk Management, Wholesale EMEA, "UBS (Lux) Eq Fd - Greater China (USD) P-acc (15.12.2009): "Company fundamentals and cash flow, not much different from developed market, except they will have higher growth rate for longer duration."
Christina Chung, "Allianz RCM China - A - USD" & "Allianz RCM China Fund -A - USD" (16.12.2009): "Aus Sicht eines Bottom-up Managers achten wir sehr stark auf Faktoren wie Gewinnwachstum und angemessenes Bewertungsniveau. Derzeit besonders von Bedeutung ist auch das Preis-Buch-Verhältnis, worauf viele erfolgreiche Titelselektionen zurückzuführen sind."
Yi Tang, "Saint-Honore Chine A" (16.12.2009): "• Industries with long term growth potential
• Leading or differentiating positions of the company in its segment
• Management quality and corporate governance
• Financial strength and undemanding valuation."
Frage 2:
e-fundresearch: "Welche Über- und Untergewichtungen haben Sie derzeit in China bzw. Greater China Fonds umgesetzt?"
Martha Wang, "Fidelity Funds - China Focus A" (10.12.2009): "I have increased the fund’s exposure to companies which will benefit from higher domestic consumption and as such, I continue to favour consumer-related sectors. Within staples, the fund has invested in companies which manufacture items such as personal products or wines, which thrive on aspirations for adopting a western lifestyle. In light of my expectations for monetary tightening, I have added positions in sectors which are relatively immune to interest rate changes, such as gas utilities and information technology. For example, I like China Gas because of its dominance in the industry, good distribution network and low utilisation rates. Among my top bets is China’s number one instant messaging service and social networking site, Tencent, which has over 70% of the country’s 300 million internet users as members of its virtual community. Within financials, the allocation to the insurance sector has been increased to a neutral stance by adding to existing positions in names like China Insurance, as higher interest rates will increase the yield on investment in an under-penetrated market that has a long-term structural growth path. Meanwhile, I have reduced exposure to banking stocks due to expected changes in policy which could curtail loan growth."
Martin Lau, Director Greater China Equities, "First State Greater China Growth I" & "First State Greater China Growth A GBP Acc" (16.12.2009): "First State Greater China Growth Fund:
Country Exposure:
• We remain overweight in Hong Kong and underweight in China and Taiwan
• We have recently increased our weighting in Taiwan and decreased our weighting in Hong Kong
Sector Exposure
• Increased weighting in Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, Information Technology and Utilities
• Decreased weighting in Consumer Staples, Energy, Financials, Industrials, Materials, Telecom Services.
• Overweight Consumer sectors, Health Care and Utilities
• Underweight Energy, Financials, Industrials, Information Technology, Materials and Telecom Services
Stockmarket Outlook
• The number and quality of recent IPOs make us nervous about the short-term market outlook.
• We remain focused on companies that will benefit from the strong growth of domestic consumption in the Greater China region.
• We have trimmed our exposure to technology stocks as they have performed very strongly.
• We remain positive about the long-term growth potential for the Greater China region.
We have recently added to the Consumer Discretionary sector as we believe inflation will rise next year and increased weighting in the Telecom Services sector as stocks there are out of favour. Consumer companies have done well over the last 6 months. Consumer, both discretionary and staples, is an area which we have focused on over the last 3 years, based on our positive view on domestic consumption in the Greater China region. Consumer stocks often also have strong pricing power and in the long run many Asian brands will be established."
Agnes Deng, Director - Asian Equities - Baring Asset Management (Hong Kong), "Baring Hong Kong China USD" (17.12.2009): "Baring Hong Kong China Fund
As at end of November 2009
Top 10 Overweight Positions
Top 10 Underweight Positions
Samantha Ho, "Invesco PRC Equity USD A" (14.12.2009): "In general, we look to do stock-picking through our bottom-up stock selection process on industries/ companies that offer solid earnings growth, strong cash flow and balance sheet with low/ no gearing. We overweight on companies that can benefit from government’s policies, such as in the infrastructure and consumer-related sectors. We underweight sectors which are vulnerable to global slowdown (i.e. related to exports and low value-added manufacturing)."
Allan Christensen, Portfolio Manager Chinese and Far Eastern Equities, "Jyske Invest Chinese Equities" (16.12.2009): "We have an overweight on stocks that benefit either directly or indirectly from rising domestic consumption. We are currently overweight consumer discretionary, consumer staples and Internet stocks.
Investments are also an important theme. We are overweight materials (cement) and property companies.
We are underweight oil stocks and also telecommunication due to high competition and price pressure."
Thomas Rose, Head Investment & Risk Management, Wholesale EMEA, "UBS (Lux) Eq Fd - Greater China (USD) P-acc (15.12.2009): "The increasing consumption capacity of Chinese consumers is reflected by our large sector overweight is in Consumer Staples (companies like China Mengniu Dairy)
Overweights:
China Mengniu Dairy: Despite the industry-wide milk contamination scandal, this large dairy company will benefit in the long run as the government strengthens regulations and the market consolidates post this event
China Vanke: the largest residential property developer in China, with ample land bank. It should benefit from China’s booming property market as the industry leader in the long run
Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine: the largest wine maker in China, with a strong sales network. The stock is expected to maintain solid and steady growth given sustainable consumption growth in China
Underweights:
Bank of China: We believe that there are better opportunities in the Finanacial sector in China, such as Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (ICBC)
China Mobile: The lack of earnings clarity amidst the increasing competition and concerns over potential market-share loss lead to an underweight in the fund."
Christina Chung, "Allianz RCM China - A - USD" & "Allianz RCM China Fund -A - USD" (16.12.2009): "Übergewichtung: IT, Automobil und Versorger; Untergewichtung: Telekom, Energie und Baustoff; Neutral: Konsum und Finanzwerte."
Yi Tang, "Saint-Honore Chine A" (16.12.2009): "• Overweight: IT services, consumer discretionary, health care, industrials, utilities
• Underweight: Banks, energy, materials"
Frage 3:
e-fundresearch: Wie ist Ihr genereller Marktausblick für China and Greater China Aktien in den kommenden 12 Monaten? Wo ergeben sich Chancen und wo liegen die Risiken?
Martha Wang, "Fidelity Funds - China Focus A" (10.12.2009): "I remain positive about China, given the current economic growth momentum and the government’s inclination to ensure the rapid pace of expansion continues. At the same time, equity market sentiment will probably remain volatile until investors are convinced that there is, indeed, a meaningful gap between the end of easing and the beginning of tightening. Corporate performance has been improving and, subsequently, earnings estimates have been raised. However, the recent rally has pushed up valuations and it becomes more important in this environment to look for good quality firms which have room for further upgrades and positive surprises. There are some sectors where I see more attractive value, such as within the consumer discretionary space."
Martin Lau, Director Greater China Equities, "First State Greater China Growth I" & "First State Greater China Growth A GBP Acc" (16.12.2009): "In terms of risks, while we believe the worst of the economic slowdown could be over, we are cautious on the pace of recovery especially after markets have already re-rated significantly. As the recent economic recovery in China has been driven by fiscal spending, we believe domestic consumption will need to pick up to sustain current economic momentum.
China’s economic growth for 2009 is likely to exceed 8%, reflecting the initial success of the government’s fiscal stimulus measures. Our view on exports is that they will bottom out and potentially post a positive recovery, but the same kind of strong export growth we have seen in the past (20-30%) is unlikely to be repeated. A substantial amount of positive news is priced into the Chinese stock markets but we need to see more solid signs of earnings growth for stocks to make further progress. Anyone who chooses to invest into China today has to take a longer term view."
Agnes Deng, Director - Asian Equities - Baring Asset Management (Hong Kong), "Baring Hong Kong China USD" (17.12.2009): "2010 China Market Outlook:
• China to sustain the high growth moment in 2010
• Government policy to contain the growth
• Fixed asset investment remain strong
• Domestic consumption growth to reaccelerate from 2010
• Earnings rather than the liquidity as the primary driver of the market
• China’s growth premium is not fully priced in
With sequential improvement in the macroeconomic backdrop and corporate earnings picking up, we believe the China equity market remains attractive. In the medium term, the market should find additional support from monetary easing and infrastructure spending by the government. While concerns over the macroeconomic control and monetary tightening may heighten the near term volatility of China market."
Samantha Ho, "Invesco PRC Equity USD A" (14.12.2009): "Looking ahead, we maintain our positive stance in investing in China, supported by its long-term secular case, relatively solid fundamentals and favorable government policies. We expect Chinese equities to reflect underlying fundamentals of companies in the long run. Whilst short-term Chinese markets performance will likely be driven by liquidity and fund flows, we have solid conviction that medium term investors will be rewarded as equity markets converge and return to focusing on fundamentals and corporate profitability. We believe that patience and adherence to discipline will be the key under this environment.
Risk relates to policy execution by the Chinese government – the government can enforce too little or too much stimulus measures to stimulate the economy. Having said that, we believe the Chinese government is aware of the global economic situation."
Allan Christensen, Portfolio Manager Chinese and Far Eastern Equities, "Jyske Invest Chinese Equities" (16.12.2009): "I am still relatively positive on Chinese stocks for the coming 12-18 month. The growth prospects are relatively more positive here that elsewhere and valuations are still not excessive. Also for this period I see rising domestic consumption as the most important theme – so again consumption-related stocks. The second important theme is investments – cement, coal stocks and also real estate companies.
The biggest risk is if the Chinese government starts tightening too soon. We can already see that the market is scared about this – but we believe that the market is too worried at this stage and that we will only see token tightening."
Thomas Rose, Head Investment & Risk Management, Wholesale EMEA, "UBS (Lux) Eq Fd - Greater China (USD) P-acc (15.12.2009): "After the strong recovery, we expect the market will be more volatile with an upward bias. We still like consumer names and healthcare."
Yi Tang, "Saint-Honore Chine A" (16.12.2009): "Greater China market should continue to offer upside potential for the next 12 to 18 months. We believe the worst is over, and Chinese economy should grow by around 9% in 2010, led by investment and consumption and aided by the gradual export recovery. While on the other hand, valuation is still reasonable even after the YTD rally.
Going into 2010, we expect to see accommodative policies and abundant liquidity, even though more fine-tuning measures will be introduced to guide the economy toward consumption-driven and structural change for sustainable development. Healthcare, railway, alternative energy, telecommunication equipment and IT services should offer good investment opportunities in our view, while property and banks are exposed to higher regulatory risks."
Christina Chung, "Allianz RCM China - A - USD" & "Allianz RCM China Fund -A - USD" (16.12.2009): "Wir sehen China weiterhin als Wachstumstreiber für die ganze Region und sind überzeugt von der langfristigen Aussicht der chinesischen Aktien. Kurzfristig erwarten wir eine Konsolidierungsphase mit einer Seitwärts-Bewegung. Der Aktienmarkt wird getrieben durch Nachrichten und Sektorrotation. Zahlreiche IPOs in kommenden Monaten werden auch die Handelsaktvitäten stark beeinflussen.
Chancen sehen wir vor allem bei Nebenwerten, die im Nischenbereich rasantes Wachstum und steigenden Marktanteil von sich behaupten und weniger abhängig von der Konjunkturentwicklung sind.
Potentiale Risiken bestehen darin, dass eine durch Liquiditätsüberfluß geprägte Überhitzung stattfindet, wie es im Jahr 2007 der Fall war."
Frage 4:
e-fundresearch: "Welche Auswirkungen erwarten Sie von den umfangreichen Konjunkturpaketen in China?"
Martha Wang, "Fidelity Funds - China Focus A" (10.12.2009): "While the crisis management programmes deployed at the end of 2008 can be gradually scaled back, the government is focused on transforming the economy into one which is more reliant on domestic sources of demand and, hence, some of the measures are likely to continue. Specifically, I see the VAT rebate for appliances and the cash rebate for retiring old automobiles that do not meet emission standards continuing in the new year. Old-for-new subsidies have been a key driver of the recent improvement in sales of home appliances, accounting for about a third of total revenue in participating cities for certain companies. The government is now seeking opinions to assess whether it needs to expand the programme to cover additional product categories and regions for an extended period. If that goes through, it would be a major positive for the industry. Additionally, higher domestic consumption is likely to be achieved through recovering employment and income growth."
Martin Lau, Director Greater China Equities, "First State Greater China Growth I" & "First State Greater China Growth A GBP Acc" (16.12.2009): "The stimulus package has led to a massive increase in liquidity and risks of asset bubbles in China. There is a possibility that the government would need to limit additional liquidity boost in 2010. Policies to control inflation could also be launched."
Agnes Deng, Director - Asian Equities - Baring Asset Management (Hong Kong), "Baring Hong Kong China USD" (17.12.2009): "China market should find additional support from monetary easing and infrastructure spending by the government, with benefit in rising consumer and infrastructure spending."
Samantha Ho, "Invesco PRC Equity USD A" (14.12.2009): "In our view, the RMB4 trillion stimulus package was the government’s initial step to revive China’s economy. We expect these stimulus packages to translate into investment opportunities in infrastructure related sectors, especially in China where we expect order books to expand in the second half of 2009, following last November’s large stimulus package.
As the next step, we expect the Chinese government will continue to remain accommodative by providing various measures to further stimulate consumption (i.e. appliance subsidy program for rural population, replacement program for residents to trade-in old appliances for new ones etc) and reduce savings rate. With the lack of sense of social security due to the absence of adequate social welfare scheme, yet-to-be established education system, and limited usage of credit cards etc, savings rate continues to remain excessively high. As we do not expect domestic consumption to flourish overnight, promotion in domestic consumption will be a long-term program. "
Allan Christensen, Portfolio Manager Chinese and Far Eastern Equities, "Jyske Invest Chinese Equities" (16.12.2009): "The government has already succeed in boosting the economy – growth is picking up, loan growth has been very strong, real estate transactions have picked up, retail sales are strong, power generation has picked up. I think it is important not only to look at the massive numbers, but also at other government efforts such as the stimulus programs, which make the outlook for China look relatively positive."
Thomas Rose, Head Investment & Risk Management, Wholesale EMEA, "UBS (Lux) Eq Fd - Greater China (USD) P-acc (15.12.2009): "Most of the stimulus is on sectors that have been underinvested by the government in the past so we do not see a big overcapacity issue. The problem of the stimulus package is asset price has increased very fast so they might need a period of consolidation."
Christina Chung, "Allianz RCM China - A - USD" & "Allianz RCM China Fund -A - USD" (16.12.2009): "Das Konjunkturpaket hat zu China´s BIP Wachstum in 2009 maßgeblich beigetragen. Allerdings sind die Auswirkungen noch nicht im vollen Umfang entfaltet. Die Implementierung wird sich über Jahre hinweg erstrecken und erst ab 2012 sukzessive auslaufen. Profitieren werden vor allem die ländliche Regionen und niedrigere Einkommensgruppen, womit ein solides Fundament für Chinas Transformation geschaffen werden soll."
Yi Tang, "Saint-Honore Chine A" (16.12.2009): "The comprehensive economic stimulus package has played a crucial role in China’s economic recovery amid the challenging external environment. It quickly created a benign liquidity environment to fuel fixed asset investments, and successfully guided spending on auto, property and white goods which sparked overall improvement in consumer confidence. With growth coming back on track, Chinese authorities will focus more on the structural change leveraging on the stimulus package. As a result, we expect to see strong secular growth in sectors related to social well-being, such as healthcare, insurance and education, as well as environmental-related and energy efficient segments, including railway and clean energy."
Alle Daten per 04.12.2009 in Euro:
