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Die besten Russland Aktienfonds

Die Fondsmanager der besten Russland Aktienfonds haben exklusiv 5 Fragen zu Ihren Einschätzungen zum aktuellen Markt, der Entwicklung des Rohölpreises sowie zu ihren Über- und Untergewichtungen in den Fonds beantwortet. Funds | 22.02.2010 04:30 Uhr
e-fundresearch: "Welche Faktoren hatten in den letzten Monaten den russischen Aktienmarkt am stärksten beeinflusst?" Tim McCarthy, Fondsmanager des "MC Russian Market Fund A share", Valartis (10.02.2010):"External factors have had the most influence on Russian markets. With so much of Russia’s economy focused on extracting natural resources for export, Russia’s markets are very sensitive to global problems and the Russian market has sold off by about 10% year-to-date due to several global factors. When China raised its banking reserve requirements a few weeks ago, this lead to a sell-off in oil, copper and other commodities, which caused the Russian market to drop over the next few trading sessions. The problems in Greece lead to higher risk premiums for a number of EU and developing countries. Russia’s credit default swaps spreads over US treasuries jumped 20bps from 170 to 190bps as the Greek problems caused a contagion affect and higher adversity to risk. The US Dollar is negatively correlated to commodities, so as the ‘carry-trade’ was un-winding and as the Euro was falling due to problems in Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain, the US Dollar gained relative to the Euro. This US Dollar strength lead to lower commodity prices and countries like Russia, that sell commodities, saw their markets drop." Matthias Siller, Fondsmanager des "Baring Russia C", Baring AM (11.02.2010): "Auf makroekonomischer Sicht: Konsumausgaben, Industrieproduktion sowie Gueterumschlag, im Bankensektor speziell die Entwicklung der Rueckstellungen fuer notleidende Kredite und der Refinanzierungssatz der russischen Nationalbank, die stabile Entwicklung des Rubels. Der Erdoelpreis hat relativ wenig Auswirkung auf den Aktienmarkt. Auch die politische Entwicklung stand weniger im Blickpunkt des Marktes."

Peter Elam Håkansson, Fondsmanager des "East Capital Rysslandsfonden", East Capital (12.02.2010): "Increasing risk appetite (investors more willing to increase equity exposure); attractive valuation (Russia trades at around p/e of 8, cheaper than majority of emerging markets and all other BRIC nations); upwards growth revisions (for example IMF increased GDP growth expectations from 1.5% in October 09 to 3.6% in January 10); stable oil price."

Peter Bodis, Fondsmanager des "Pioneer Funds Austria – Russia Stock T", Pioneer (17.02.2010): "The Russian economy is on a gradual recovery path, which ehlped the performance of stocks with exposure to the domestic economy: e.g. financials, consumer stocks, telecoms. Steel was also doing well driven by recovering global demand."

Odeniyaz Dzhaparov, Fondsmanager des "DWS Russia", DWS (17.02.2010): "There are 2 set of factors: global and domestic. Global factors are more important for now, i.e. continuing global economic recovery, continuing Chinese growth and subsequent rise in commodities prices. All that encouraged investors to take more risk and Russia being high beta market benefited from it. Domestically it is gradual economic recovery, better than expected budget deficit and inflation."

Zina Psiola, Fondsmanagerin des "Clariden Leu (Lux) Russia Equity Fund", Clariden Leu (22.02.2010): "Stable commodity prices and factors tied to the global inventory cycle have translated into improvements in Russia’s trade balance and a strengthening of the rouble. Stock markets rebounded sharply in the second and third quarters of 2009. They went into hibernation mode in winter, trading in a tight trading range while seeking new direction. I believe that improving domestic newsflow will lead to a “spring awakening” in this market."

Frage 2:

e-fundresearch: "Welche Faktoren sind in den kommenden Monaten von Bedeutung?"

Tim McCarthy, Fondsmanager des "MC Russian Market Fund A share", Valartis (10.02.2010): "Oil and other commodity prices are always at the top of the list of important factors for Russia. Geo-politics are also up there and the situation with Iran seems to be coming to a conclusion. There is a lot of pressure building to settle this dispute one way or another.  Diplomacy seems to have yielded little and ‘war hawks’ are circling. Russia seems to be coming closer to the US side at the UN Security Council discussions in an effort to pressure Iran to drop its nuclear ambitions. If there is an attach on Iran, 15% to 20% of daily oil production will not be able to make its way to consumers and prices will rise very quickly to new highs. This scenario may have a low probability, but this probability is increasing."

Matthias Siller, Fondsmanager des "Baring Russia C", Baring AM (11.02.2010): "Der Markt erwartet starke Konsumnachfrage, steigendes frei verfuegbares Einkommen und einhergehndes solides Wachstumspotential im Retail-, Konsumgueter-, Finanz-, Versorger- und  Telekomsektor. Im Bereich der Investitionsnachfrage und im Infrastrukturbereich sind die Erwartungen weitaus gedaempfter. Fuer Exporteure (=Rohstoffsektor) spielen die Kostenentwicklung (Inflation), politische Einflussnahme (Steuern, Exportzoelle,Investionsanreize) und natuerlich der Weltmarktpreis eine wichtige Rolle."

Peter Elam Håkansson, Fondsmanager des "East Capital Rysslandsfonden", East Capital (12.02.2010): "Continued upward growth revisions; strong corporate earnings growth (consensus puts EPS growth in Russia at 40% in 2010, around 10% higher than other BRIC’s); falling inflation and interest rates; a reversal of flows which has seen investors focus on bringing up weights in EMEA after they were overlooked in GEM allocation’s in 2009."

Peter Bodis, Fondsmanager des "Pioneer Funds Austria – Russia Stock T", Pioneer (17.02.2010): "The recovery of the Russian economy needs to continue, and it will unless another external shock happens. One risk is bankrupcy in Greece or other highly indebted economies. That will make the dollar strong, commodity collapse and sovereign interest rates increase. It’s not our base case scenario, but a risk. Oil price doesn’t have to increase just keep the current 70 USD level. That is enough for the Russian economy to recover."

Odeniyaz Dzhaparov, Fondsmanager des "DWS Russia", DWS (17.02.2010): "The same factors will be important in coming months. We need to see those positive trends to continue fro equity markets to go up."

 

Zina Psiola, Fondsmanagerin des "Clariden Leu (Lux) Russia Equity Fund", Clariden Leu (22.02.2010): "I expect inflation and credit statistics to offer positive newsflow. I am looking for annual inflation to slow to 6.5% by the end of 2010 (inflation in 2009 was 8.8%), and we expect 10-15% growth in credit volume, in particular to small and medium enterprises and the general population. This could create favourable conditions for construction, automotive and banking industries. In addition, I believe that capital investments should remain at least at 2009 levels and support specific infrastructure companies such as pipe producers, as well as port and container operators."

 

Frage 3:

e-fundresearch: "Wie schätzen Sie die weitere Entwicklung des Rohölpreises ein?"

Tim McCarthy, Fondsmanager des "MC Russian Market Fund A share", Valartis (10.02.2010): "Short-term bearish / long-term bullish. We see currently high levels of oil inventories, combined with excess capacity and moderate global growth and oil demand outlook as unsupportive of current oil prices in the $70-$80 range. If oil prices move back down to the $50-$60 range, oil sector stocks will drop accordingly, offering and attractive entry level. In the long run, we are bullish on oil prices, and we believe that prices over $100 will occur over the next 2 or 3 years. Of course, an attack on Iran could send oil prices up to new highs very quickly and diplomatic options appear to be coming to an end."

Matthias Siller, Fondsmanager des "Baring Russia C", Baring AM (11.02.2010): "Stabil, um das dzt Niveau."

 

Peter Elam Håkansson, Fondsmanager des "East Capital Rysslandsfonden", East Capital (12.02.2010): "The baseline scenario is that it will stay within the USD 60-80/barrel range throughout this year. Currently we see more upward pressure on oil price than downward."

Peter Bodis, Fondsmanager des "Pioneer Funds Austria – Russia Stock T", Pioneer (17.02.2010): "It will probably remain range bound for some time. The oil price has strong seasonality: in January and February it tends to be weak, and starts recovering around March as the driving season kicks in. It peaks around June and then stagnates, or trades down through the year end. We see how strong the demand recovery will be from March, but an oil price over USD 80 is not affordable for OPEC countries form the political viewpoint. With fragile developed economies, the oil price can not go up too much. Wilcard is the USD and China. If the USD depreciates again, it will help the oil price, and demand in China is exceeding all expectations. However, even if these thing boos demand, OPEC has enough capacity to cap the oil price at 80."

Odeniyaz Dzhaparov, Fondsmanager des "DWS Russia", DWS (17.02.2010): "It is not easy question. Too many factors drive oil price apart from fundamental supply/demand balance. It is geopolitics, financial speculation among them. In that environment it is very difficult to forecast oil price with comfortable degree of certainty."

 

Zina Psiola, Fondsmanagerin des "Clariden Leu (Lux) Russia Equity Fund", Clariden Leu (22.02.2010): "The rule of thumb I apply is that oil, like other commodities, trades between the after-tax cash costs of production and the marginal cost of supply. The IEA and OPEC expect incremental demand for oil to grow by about 0.5%-1% per year in 2010-2011. Given that scenario, I estimate that oil can trade in a range between USD 65 and USD 82 per barrel. We closely track actual consumption of oil products such as gasoline in the US and China. In the US, demand looks to be stabilizing, while in China one can see relatively moderate but solid double-digit growth. Based on such a scenario, I am comfortable with the USD 65 to 82 range. But as the global recovery starts to include developing and developed countries, the demand for oil should grow by more than 1% each year (based on historic correlation between GDP and demand growth). That would lead oil to break above the USD 82 /bbl level, in turn stimulating development of new, untapped oil fields."

Frage 4:

e-fundresearch: "Welche Über- und Untergewichtungen lieferten in den letzten 12 Monaten welchen Beitrag zur Outperformance/Underperformance?"

Tim McCarthy, Fondsmanager des "MC Russian Market Fund A share", Valartis (10.02.2010): "Compared to the Fund’s benchmark ROS Index, we had significant under-weights in the oil and gas sector and over-weights in domestic sectors, like retail, banking, telecoms, utilities. Over the last 12 months we averaged 45% to 50% oil and gas sector exposure vs. 70% to 75% benchmark weights. Within oil and gas, we under-weighted Gazprom and Lukoil, while over-weighting Novatek and Rosneft. Gazprom suffered from low European demand and lower prices in 2009, while Novatek benefited from new reserve acquisitions. Lukoil suffered from low growth while Rosneft’s outlook improved dramatically given recent production starts at the new Vankor field and the Eastern Siberian production tax breaks."

Matthias Siller, Fondsmanager des "Baring Russia C", Baring AM (11.02.2010): "Der Baring Russia Fund verzeichnete in den letzten 12 Monaten eine Outperformance idHv ca. 3%, zu gleichen Teilen aus stock picking und Asset Allocation.
Im Bereich Asset Allocation trugen die Uebergewichtung im Konsumgueterbereich und im Industriesektor sowie die Untergewichtung im Energiesektor bei. Negativ in Bezug auf relative Performance wirkte sich die Untergewichtung im Finanzsektor aus."

Peter Elam Håkansson, Fondsmanager des "East Capital Rysslandsfonden", East Capital (12.02.2010): "We are not indexed orientated so do not position or monitor ourselves against the benchmark. Generally we struggled during Q1 due to our exposure to Mid/Small caps, but we stuck to our strategy and got rewarded as the positive market sentiment gradually spread through sectors and segments.
Throughout the year we have been very active and did increase weights in companies in sectors such as energy, financials, utilities, retailers as we recognized value discrepancies and strong market sentiment resulting in a 9% out-performance of the fund in EUR compared to the benchmark RTS index in 2009. 
Our success can first of all be attributed to having local knowledge and getting first hand information from a large network throughout the region. Further, finding the right balance between value investments and know how of when to move into bombed out stocks is also a critical factor."

Peter Bodis, Fondsmanager des "Pioneer Funds Austria – Russia Stock T", Pioneer (17.02.2010): "We started the year with UW Financials, OW energy playing the rubel devaluation. We increased Financials to neutral, cut Energy to UW in March. We bought leveraged stocks, real estate in particular in April. We reduced energy further in June, and increased Financials, consumers, and materials OW."

Odeniyaz Dzhaparov, Fondsmanager des "DWS Russia", DWS (17.02.2010): "Financials, some resource based companies, coal in particular were outperformers. The cash was absolute underperformer."

 

 

Zina Psiola, Fondsmanagerin des "Clariden Leu (Lux) Russia Equity Fund", Clariden Leu (22.02.2010): "The market performed in a very rational manner in line with the business cycle phases -  the recovery in spring 2009 started with early cyclicals (steel, logistics and banking) and after the summer moved to more mid-cycle sectors such as telecoms and industrials. Since the beginning of 2010, investors have been looking for good quality companies capable not only of gaining market share, but also able to generate solid cash flow and pay dividends."

Frage 5:

e-fundresearch: "Welche Über- und Untergewichtungen sind derzeit im Fonds umgesetzt?"

Tim McCarthy, Fondsmanager des "MC Russian Market Fund A share", Valartis (10.02.2010): "The Fund is still over-weight in retail, telecoms and utilities, but we are looking forward to short-term weakness in oil prices to provide an attractive entry point into oil sector stocks. We have recently become under-weight in banking due to the high prices. Our Fund went from a 12% sector weight to under 2% in the last two months as prices rose to our sell targets. We are looking forward to increasing the Fund’s exposure in this sector if prices come down 10% to 15%. We are over-weight gold-stocks after the recent gold price correction and we are likely to increase our weights in other metals and mining stocks in the near future."

Matthias Siller, Fondsmanager des "Baring Russia C", Baring AM (11.02.2010): "Im Prinzip behalten wir die beschriebenen Ueber-/Untergewichtungen bei, in juengster Zeit wurde im Rohstoffbereich die Uebergewichtung in Metals/Mining abgebaut und die Untergewichtung im Energieberiech verringert."

Peter Elam Håkansson, Fondsmanager des "East Capital Rysslandsfonden", East Capital (12.02.2010): "We are well diversified across different sectors and continue to focus on small and mid-cap companies which we expect to continue to out-perform as the recovery continues."

Peter Bodis, Fondsmanager des "Pioneer Funds Austria – Russia Stock T", Pioneer (17.02.2010): "We are big time underweight in energy and overweight everything else, like materials, financials and consumer stocks. The rational is, that if oil is not going anywhere, the energy sector will remian stagnant. As opposed to this, other sectors will deliver decent earnings growth this year, and earnings outperformance should translate into price outperformance."

Odeniyaz Dzhaparov, Fondsmanager des "DWS Russia", DWS (17.02.2010): "There are no significant sector over- or underweights at the moment."

 

 

Zina Psiola, Fondsmanagerin des "Clariden Leu (Lux) Russia Equity Fund", Clariden Leu (22.02.2010): "There is a strong domestic overweight - from telecoms and banking to infrastructure and industrials - as they are capable of delivering strong earnings growth  in 2010 – between 25- and 35%. January statistics showing an increase in retail sales is a confirmation that confidence is returning to domestic market. In commodity sectors we are much more selective. For example, in steel I prefer companies that can shift production from export-oriented products such as the simplest form of slabs, into more sophisticated products that will be increasingly required on the domestic construction and automotive sectors. We recently added several companies that are only listed locally, which offer good value in comparison to ADRs."

Alle Daten per 08.02.2010 in Euro:

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