Alistair Thompson & Angus Tulloch, Fondsmanager der "First State Asia Pacific A GBP Acc", "First State Asia Pacific Leaders A GBP Acc", "Skandia Pacific Equity A1", First State (25.02.2010): "Our investment approach does not tend to change - we employ a bottom-up research process which combines regular company visits with extensive fundamental analysis. Our investment research identifies the highest quality companies with sustainable long-term earnings per share growth prospects and focuses on those stocks where we believe the market has incorrectly priced future growth potential."
Joseph Tse, Fondsmanager des "Fidelity Funds - South East Asia A USD" & "Fidelity Funds - Asian Special Sits A" (24.02.2010): "In the year 2009, the market was driven by normalisation trades where stocks with less sound fundamentals actually did better than quality stocks. The year 2010 should be more about stock picking and fundamental investing."
Anna Ho, Fondsmanagerin des "NESTOR Fernost Fonds" (19.02.2010): "Since we are a bottom up stock picker using the thematic approach as guidance, we pay attention to the business environment of Asia and look for growth driven by themes, such as demographic trends, industry consolidation trends, outsourcing trends…etc. Provided we found the companies benefiting from these trends and have reasonable visibility of future earnings growth, we are happy. We therefore pay less attention to the short term impact of changes in the fiscal and monetary policies of different countries."
Mark Mobius, Fondsmanager des "Templeton Asian Growth A Ydis USD" (22.02.2010): "Wir konzentrieren uns weiterhin auf zwei Hauptthemen: Verbraucher und Rohstoffe. Die Pro-Kopf-Einkommen sind in den meisten Schwellenländern immer noch niedriger als in den meisten Industrieländern, steigen jedoch auf der Grundlage stärkeren Wirtschaftswachstums und niedrigerer Geburtenraten rasch an. Das bedeutet, dass die Wachstumsrate des Pro-Kopf-Einkommens in Schwellenländern höher ist als in Industrieländern. Die hohen Bevölkerungszahlen in Indien und China mit jeweils einer Milliarde Menschen belegen, wie viele Verbraucher allein Asien stellt. Diese Märkte haben außerdem immenses Potenzial für Konsumgüter, weil sie ausgesprochen schwach penetriert sind. Wir interessieren uns für mehrere Konsumbereiche wie Verbraucherfinanzdienstleistungen, Einzelhandel und Konsumgüter."
Greg Kuhnert, Fondsmanager des "Investec GSF Asian Equity A Acc Gross" & "Investec Asia ex Japan A Acc Net" (18.02.2010): "Regardless of where a company is domiciled, we believe that a good investment is one which is attractively valued at purchase, is good quality in terms of the consistency of cash flow returns, is getting increasing focus from brokers and analysts, and demonstrates decent share price momentum. We have incorporated this combination of fundamental and behavioral finance characteristics into our renown 4Factor investment process. We rigorously apply these factors to the analysis of the investible universe of Asian equities before performing detailed fundamental analysis on the short list of companies that score highest on this screen."
Frage 2:
e-fundresearch: "Welche Regionen und/oder Sektoren sind derzeit in Asien ex Japan Fonds über- und untergewichtet? Was sind die Gründe dafür?"
Alistair Thompson & Angus Tulloch, Fondsmanager der "First State Asia Pacific A GBP Acc", "First State Asia Pacific Leaders A GBP Acc", "Skandia Pacific Equity A1", First State (25.02.2010): "Regional Exposure
• Increased exposure to Papua New Guinea, China, Malaysia, Australia and Singapore
• Decreased exposure to India, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand
• Overweight Australia, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand
• Underweight China, India, South Korea and Taiwan
Sector Exposure
• Increased exposure to Consumer Staples, Industrials, Telecom Services and Utilities
• Decreased exposure to Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Information Technology
• Overweight Consumer Staples, Health Care, Industrials, Telecom Services and Utilities
• Underweight Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Financials, Information Technology and Materials
Our portfolio is currently cautiously positioned. IT and materials sector are export dependant and we are worried about the demand outlook for Western consumers as they repair balance sheets. Consumer staples, healthcare, telcoms and utilities are all relatively immune from the expected slower economic growth from the West. Banks are expensive in Asia."
Joseph Tse, Fondsmanager des "Fidelity Funds - South East Asia A USD" & "Fidelity Funds - Asian Special Sits A" (24.02.2010): "I am currently overweight technology stocks as these names have been able to benefit from the global recovery. I had been underweight the sector for most of the last 9 years after the TMT bubble burst, anticipating a long de-rating period. However, I have moved to an overweight position more recently. There are increasingly more technology stocks that are reasonably priced, and some even pay dividends. I am also overweight consumer discretionary given the huge growth potential on the back of high but falling savings rate and the enormity of this market.
Conversely, I am currently underweight the telecommunication sector given the regulatory risks faced by most of these names. The sector has also been extremely out of favour as global economies normalised and investors seek for names that were more leveraged to the recovery last year."
Anna Ho, Fondsmanagerin des "NESTOR Fernost Fonds" (19.02.2010): "We had always been overweighting China and India for the fund because there we can find many themes to invest along, and themes matter in these markets so we can always find companies delivering handsome growth regardless of the macro economic conditions. We are overweight on the Industrial sector for China because we invest along the industry consolidation theme. We also invest a lot in industries related to the environment protection theme. In India we invest along the theme of infrastructure boom through financial and engineering companies."
Mark Mobius, Fondsmanager des "Templeton Asian Growth A Ydis USD" (22.02.2010): "Wir sind aktuell übergewichtet in Thailand und Indien. Untergewichtet sind wir in Taiwan und Südkorea. Im Sektor Energie und Materialien sind wir übergewichtet, untergewichtet im Sektor Halbleiter und Immobilien.
Wir haben unser Engagements in China über die in Hongkong notierten „H”-Aktien, aber auch in Indien und Indonesien ausgebaut. Außerdem kauften wir gezielt Titel aus Pakistan, Südkorea und Thailand zu und bauten die Fonds-Positionen in Branchen wie Öl und Gas, Banken, IT-Beratung, Bau und Technologie sowie Immobilienverwaltung und -entwicklung aus."
Greg Kuhnert, Fondsmanager des "Investec GSF Asian Equity A Acc Gross" & "Investec Asia ex Japan A Acc Net" (18.02.2010): "We do not focus on the country of registration of a stock. We are far more interested in the sustainability of superior returns that a company can generate for the benefit of its shareholders. Of course we have extensive multi-variant risk monitoring systems in place to ensure that we understand the impact of intended and unintended risks that the overall portfolio is taking. Currently we have a preference for a number of technology hardware stocks in the region, and oil & gas stocks. Consumer products are currently driving strong hardware demand, but expectation is for enterprise spend and PC replacement cycle to pick up in 2010 to further enhance returns. We like those oil & gas stocks that satisfy our investment criteria and are geographically close to the fastest growing economies in the world."
Frage 3:
e-fundresearch: "Welche Rolle wird China in zehn Jahren übernehmen?"
Alistair Thompson & Angus Tulloch, Fondsmanager der "First State Asia Pacific A GBP Acc", "First State Asia Pacific Leaders A GBP Acc", "Skandia Pacific Equity A1", First State (25.02.2010): "Asian governments are showing very little desire to raise interest rates in the fear of attracting hot currency flows, though both China and India now appear to be trying measures other than interest rates to pre-empt the formation of bubbles. Higher food and raw material prices are already leading to sharp upward revisions of inflation. From the bottom-up, we currently find it particularly difficult to find reasonably-priced companies in China and India; wage pressures and skill-shortages have also recently emerged in both countries.
Putting aside these potential pitfalls, careful stockpicking can make all the difference in this area. The region is much less well researched than the West, and what research exists is much more deal driven too. With Asia’s large aspirational population, the scaleability of successful concepts, (such as the Li Ning brand in China) never ceases to amaze. Above all the calibre of company management and corporate governance is improving at an astonishing pace."
Joseph Tse, Fondsmanager des "Fidelity Funds - South East Asia A USD" & "Fidelity Funds - Asian Special Sits A" (24.02.2010): "In ten years time, China should remain as the leader of the region, and perhaps a leader of an even bigger scale. We are a believer of a continual shift in economic power from the west to the east."
Anna Ho, Fondsmanagerin des "NESTOR Fernost Fonds" (19.02.2010): "Going forward we believe the regional trade centered around China will be larger than between Asia and the US as a whole. As China’s economy becomes more and more dependent on domestic demand and less on exports, we expect the rest of Asia and Australia will develop their respective strength to take advantage of the rapidly growing China market."
Mark Mobius, Fondsmanager des "Templeton Asian Growth A Ydis USD" (22.02.2010): "The rapid developments in China could allow it to command even greater attention in the global investment universe and feature among the world’s most important and influential countries. We could see more money being directed into China over the next 10 years, as investors realize that they may be able to buy good value at reasonable prices with relatively lower risk, compared to developed markets."
Greg Kuhnert, Fondsmanager des "Investec GSF Asian Equity A Acc Gross" & "Investec Asia ex Japan A Acc Net" (18.02.2010): "China is the personification of the investment case for investing in Asia at the moment, which is rapidly increasing domestic consumption, global outsourcing, foreign investment attracted to low cost production and vast infrastructure growth. It’s no more complicated than this."
Frage 4:
e-fundresearch: "Wie ist Ihr genereller Marktausblick für Aktien aus der Region Asien ex Japan in den kommenden 12 Monaten? Wo ergeben sich Chancen und wo liegen die Risiken?"
Alistair Thompson & Angus Tulloch, Fondsmanager der "First State Asia Pacific A GBP Acc", "First State Asia Pacific Leaders A GBP Acc", "Skandia Pacific Equity A1", First State (25.02.2010): "Our Asian portfolios are currently conservatively positioned and maintain large positions in two gold mining companies as a hedge against inflation and/or deflation.
• Markets have largely discounted a return to a recovering global economy.
• The unprecedented levels of artificial stimulus seen through low interest rates and forced bank lending will have to end at some point.
• The global economy may yet fall back into recession or face an inflationary future as this level of ‘quantitative easing’ has never been tried before.
• It is difficult to find a market commentator who is negative going into 2010, or at least the first quarter of the year. This, coupled with the above-trend valuations, justifies retaining a cautious outlook."
Joseph Tse, Fondsmanager des "Fidelity Funds - South East Asia A USD" & "Fidelity Funds - Asian Special Sits A" (24.02.2010): "The market as a whole is offering sufficient opportunities to buy growth that are trading at reasonable valuations. Over the medium term, I expect Asia’s economy to outperform the rest of the world. After having an earlier and sharper rebound than the rest of the world, the region’s recovery should continue this year thanks to global inventory-restocking, aggressive policy stimulus, and strong domestic demand from China.
I see the best opportunities in these areas:
Asia Consumption Story – Asian countries make up a significant part of the world population, and the world’s biggest consumer market. Over the last decade, population in Asia, especially rural population has witnessed strong income growth due to a combination of cyclical drivers and supportive policy actions. Rising income bodes well for consumption stocks, especially when penetration of most consumer durables in Asia remains low, especially in rural areas and small cities. The enormous size of Asian consumer market and low consumer goods penetration mean a significant growth potential.
Asian Producers Moving Up the Value Chain - Asian companies are moving up the value chain as the economy rebalances away from low value-added manufacturing. Winners in this space are hard to find, but uncovering them would be extremely rewarding.
In terms of risk, I see a faster than expected return of inflation as a potential risk. As concerns about downside risks to the growth outlook appear to be easing, the market has become increasingly sensitive to any sign of inflation, especially given the very loose monetary policy stance in both China and other major economies."
Anna Ho, Fondsmanagerin des "NESTOR Fernost Fonds" (19.02.2010): "The markets will be extremely volatile given the uncertainties related to the pace of the exit policies of the global equities markets. I hope to be able to take advantage of such volatilities to optimize the portfolio with holdings of high quality growth at low valuation, and eventually deliver good return as uncertainties subside. I still believe by sticking to the themes we have and pick the best candidates to invest on these themes, we can achieve better than market return for our investors in the long run."
Mark Mobius, Fondsmanager des "Templeton Asian Growth A Ydis USD" (22.02.2010): "Unseres Erachtens befinden sich die asiatischen Märkte in einer langfristigen Hausse. Die allgemeine Marktrichtung in Asien könnte also weiter nach oben zeigen. Viele Länder verbuchen bereits wieder Wachstum, das sich 2010 unserer Erwartung nach verstärken dürfte. Der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) rechnet für Schwellenländervolkswirtschaften 2010 mit durchschnittlich 5,1% Wachstum. Diese höheren Raten sollten früher oder später auf die Aktienmarktentwicklung durchschlagen."
Greg Kuhnert, Fondsmanager des "Investec GSF Asian Equity A Acc Gross" & "Investec Asia ex Japan A Acc Net" (18.02.2010): "We continue to rely only on the evidence of a sustainable recovery in earnings, and therefore only select companies whose quality and valuation we believe are capable of delivering sustainable returns for investors. In the medium to long term, we believe Asia ex Japan equities are a truly exception opportunity and an essential core component of a diversified portfolio. This is because Global leading indicators are reviving which is good for Asian exports, the long term structural story is intact (rising consumption, infrastructure spending, global outsourcing ) so we expect that economic growth will be superior to developed markets. In addition to this, corporate and national debt levels are more favourable than elsewhere. The most significant risks are, as ever, policy mistakes resulting in the interruption of the global economic recovery."
Alle Daten per 16.02.2010 in Euro:
