Mag. Erich Hackl, CFA, Fondsmanager des "PIA – Euro Inflation Linked Bond T" (25.03.2010): "Der wichtigste fundamentale Faktor: Das Angebot an Liquidität durch „unkonventionelle“ Maßnahmen der Zentralbanken - nicht nur in der Eurozone, sondern weltweit - sorgt für eine hohe Nachfrage bei Assets und insbesondere bei Staatsanleihen. Mangels kurzfristiger Inflationsgefahren wird diese Liquidität noch anhalten und nur sehr graduell zurückgehen."
Michiel de Bruin, Fondsmanager des "F&C Euro Inflation Linked Bond I" (24.03.2010): "There are currently two main factors we believe driving the inflation linked debate and bond markets. At one side there is the unemployment situation, currently the high unemployment is expected to put downward pressure on inflation. At the other side there are the effects of robust growth in emerging market countries driving up commodity prices and central banks flooding the market with liquidity both expected to put upward pressure on inflation."
Laurent Gonon, Fondsmanager des "Amundi Funds Euro Inflation Bond C C" (25.03.2010): "Monetary policy remains the most important factors to assess the future direction of yields and shape of the yield curve.
We don’t expect central banks to increase rates before late in the year as growth remain fragile and inflation low. There is also a risk that central banks will delay their first hike in 2011 as austerity measures implemented by governments will weigh on growth. However raising rates too late could open the door for higher inflation.
The level of public deficits and public debt will also translate in more supply on government bonds. Last year, quantitative easing helped absorb easily this supply. We will see how markets react this year. They may ask for higher yields."
Andrew Craig, Senior Fixed Income Investment Specialist "Parvest Euro Inflation Linked C C" (23.03.2010): "Amongst the factors which are currently important are those that always come up when assessing European bond markets, namely:
- the macroeconomic environment, specifically the outlook for growth and inflation. We expect a long period of anemic growth in the Eurozone. We expect disinflation or deflation to constitute more of a threat than inflation.
- the fiscal situation for sovereign issuers in the Eurozone. This issue has taken on particular importance given the massively costly rescue packages undertaken to prop up the financial system. European bond investing is once again requires careful analysis of the fiscal positions of each sovereign issuer in order to made judgements about relative valuations. This constitutes a core skill of BNPP AM and is an area which we expect to provide numerous opportunities in our active management in coming months.
- future policy from the European Central Bank with regard to the normalisation of monetary policy after the provision by the ECB of liquidity to the European banking system since the start of the crisis. We expect a gradual, catious normalisation of monetary policy by the ECB. We do not expect the ECB to raise official rates before the second quarter of 2011.
Finally, the structure and organisation of the Eurozone is currently open to question following the events related to Greece´s fiscal problems. We believe ultimately that the Greek saga will give rise to a more pronounced integration of economic policy within the Eurozone. However, we do not exclude further volatility as the political process is likely to be long and create uncertainty."
Tamsin Balfour, Investment Director - Fixed Income bei Standard Life Investments, "Standard Life IG SICAV Euro Inflation-Linked Bd A" (24.03.2010): "The three phases of economic recovery are firstly the inventory cycle turning, secondly a pick up in industrial production and thirdly an improvement in consumer demand and capital investment. While the first two are arguably well under way, the third remains in doubt so we are paying particular attention to signs of growth in capital investment and to signs of current and future growth in consumer demand such as retail sales, unemployment and capital investment data .
We are also looking very closely at the current political situation in Europe, particularly in the UK where the possibility of a hung parliament grows, and in Greece, whose need for a bail-out has potential ramifications for the rest of the EU."
Sylvain De Bus, Senior Asser Manager at Dexia Asset Management, "Dexia Bonds Euro Inflation Linked C C" (25.03.2010): "The fundamental factors that should hold center stage in European government bonds markets over the coming months are: the fiscal situation and consolidation process of European countries and the evolution in monetary policy of the major central banks.
As mentioned a key factor to follow up will be the implementation of a tighter fiscal policy by the different European countries and the impact it will have on the European macro-economic environment as for some countries the measures need to be drastic (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain,...). Not resolving their fiscal problems in terms of deficit and debt is however not an option as it could stoke their sovereign risk to levels difficult to bear.
Fiscal consolidation is a necessary step for European countries. It will prove to be the least costly, both financially as politically even it will partially refrain economic growth in the short term.
Another element that will impact European government rates and that is linked to the current fiscal situation of European states is: government debt issuance that will remain important to absorb over the coming year.
Another key element to follow up is the change in monetary policy stance, ending of quantitative easing measures and the phasing out of liquidity measures by the major central banks. The ECB will have to handle this smoothly as a policy miscalculation could lead to an important downturn in the Euro-zone economy.
While at the same time a too accommodative monetary policy by the ECB could drive inflation and inflation expectations upwards."
Frage 2:
e-fundresearch: "Wie ist Ihre generelle Einschätzung hinsichtlich Inflation/Deflation in Europa für die nächsten 12 Monate?"
Mag. Erich Hackl, CFA, Fondsmanager des "PIA – Euro Inflation Linked Bond T" (25.03.2010): "In den nächsten 12 Monaten kommen in der Eurozone keine Inflationstendenzen auf. Zu groß sind die noch vorhandenen Überkapazitäten. Inflationsschübe sind dennoch denkbar: einerseits über Rohstoffpreissteigerungen aufgrund des rohstoffintensiven Wachstums der Emergining Markets, andererseits sollte der Konsolidierungsbedarf der Staatshaushalte Steuererhöhungen und damit Preissteigerungen mit sich bringen."
Michiel de Bruin, Fondsmanager des "F&C Euro Inflation Linked Bond I" (24.03.2010): "Regarding inflation we believe that inflation can be somewhat higher than expected by market participants currently. We do not think that a deflation scenario is likely. Growth is expected to pick up, employment can improve and also commodities have resumed their upward trend contributing to inflation."
Laurent Gonon, Fondsmanager des "Amundi Funds Euro Inflation Bond C C" (25.03.2010): "Inflation in Europe in 2010 looks contained. After the sharp rebound of end 2009 mainly due to base effect, inflation should stabilize between 1% and 1.5%. Core inflation (inflation ex food and energy) will be going down following the effect of the recession and the high level of unemployment (no upside pressure on wages). Headline inflation could however surprise on the upside with energy prices going up (oil is still around 80$) and food prices pushed higher by the Asian recovery. As a consequence 2010 should not bring any inflation threat. However major uncertainties remain for 2011 and later. Inflation would be very helpful to reduce the level of debt in all countries and central banks, despite their comments, have probably a bias towards more inflation rather than less in order to avoid deflation definitely. As a consequence inflation will reach 2% in 2011."
Andrew Craig, Senior Fixed Income Investment Specialist "Parvest Euro Inflation Linked C C" (23.03.2010): "We have a strong convication that disinflation or even deflation will constitute more of a problem in the Eurozone over the next 12 months. Please see the attached presentation for more detail on what we see as disinflationary factors."
Tamsin Balfour, Investment Director - Fixed Income bei Standard Life Investments, "Standard Life IG SICAV Euro Inflation-Linked Bd A" (24.03.2010): "We expect headline inflation to remain fairly moderate, picking up slightly over the next twelve months as VAT rates rise in several European countries and the European economy continues to slowly recover. Core inflation is likely to grind slightly lower until excess capacity no longer limits firm´s pricing power before picking up later in the year. The long term implications of the recession and subsequent extraordinary stimulus packages are unknown, however, so it is unlikely that we will revert to the pre-crisis mode of low volatility in markets and economic data for some time."
Sylvain De Bus, Senior Asser Manager at Dexia Asset Management, "Dexia Bonds Euro Inflation Linked C C" (25.03.2010): "If we look to the outcome for inflation going forward;
Our EMU inflation forecasting model is forecasting euro-zone inflation to stand at 1.5% on a 1 year horizon.
In a first phase (2011-2012 horizon), the risk of an inflationary spiral (inflation moving markedly above 2%) should remain limited taking into account the current environment on the employment market and regarding capacity utilization that should keep core inflation under control.
Specific risks however remain present: commodity prices, exchange rate evolution,...
Longer term once growth returns further towards its potential, the inflationary risk should become more serious."
Frage 3:
e-fundresearch: "Wie attraktiv sind aktuell inflationsgeschützte Anleihen in Europa?"
Mag. Erich Hackl, CFA, Fondsmanager des "PIA – Euro Inflation Linked Bond T" (25.03.2010): "Die Preise inflationsindexierter relativ zu herkömmlichen Anleihen implizieren derzeit Inflationsraten von um 2% Inflation im Zeitraum 5 bis 10 Jahren. Der Inflationsschutz ist somit im z.B. 5 bis 10-jährigen Bereich ohne erkennbaren Aufpreis zu kaufen, wenn man annimmt, dass etwa 2% ein Erwartungswert für die Inflation in der mittelfristigen Zukunft ist.
Ist die Betrachtung nicht relativ zu herkömmlichen Anleihen, sondern in einem „Total Return“-Verständnis, so sind auch andere Einflussfaktoren als die Inflation relevant, insbesondere die reale Rendite. Die reale Rendite ist auf einem - historisch gesehen – niedrigen Niveau; sie ist, wie Eingangs erwähnt, aufgrund der Stützungsmaßnahmen der Zentralbank deutlich gesunken und hat zu Kursgewinnen insbesondere im letzten Jahr geführt. Könnte sich das umdrehen? Einerseits sollen diese Maßnahmen nur sehr langsam rückgeführt werden, andererseits sind bereits Steigerungen der realen Rendite in den Markterwartungen (steile reale Zinskurve) und damit in den Preisen verarbeitet, sodass ich auch von dieser Seite keine negative Überraschung erwarte."
Michiel de Bruin, Fondsmanager des "F&C Euro Inflation Linked Bond I" (24.03.2010): "Currently inflation linked bonds are priced relatively neutral. However we believe that on a medium term horizon it can be attractive to buy inflation linked bonds still as we believe inflation can rise from its current levels."
Laurent Gonon, Fondsmanager des "Amundi Funds Euro Inflation Bond C C" (25.03.2010): "Inflation linked bonds remain attractive at different levels.
First, 10 years expectations are currently just above 2% at 2.05%. For the last 10 years, inflation was on average 2.0% in the Euro Zone (including the 2009 negative figures). Long term average for this 10 years expectation is 2.3%, showing a 30bp inflation premium. This means that the premium to pay for being protected against inflation is zero at current levels.
Secondly, government inflation linked bonds remain undervalued compared to government nominal (fixed rate) bonds. They underperformed massively in 2008 when the market started to forecast a deflation; they recovered significantly but not fully in 2009. Today we consider the undervaluation of inflation linked bonds is around 4%."
Andrew Craig, Senior Fixed Income Investment Specialist "Parvest Euro Inflation Linked C C" (23.03.2010): "Inflation-linked bonds are an asset class that has been somewhat neglected by investors in the past. In our view they have very attractive attributes that mean investors should consider them as an asset class in their own right. There are very few other financial instruments that provide a real return with inflation protection. We therefore believe that they have a role to play as a core asset class for most investors.
Currently we see short-dated real interest rates as overpriced. We see longer-dated real rates as attractive and this is the focus of our dedicated fund , Parvest Euro Inflation-linked Bond."
Tamsin Balfour, Investment Director - Fixed Income bei Standard Life Investments, "Standard Life IG SICAV Euro Inflation-Linked Bd A" (24.03.2010): "Although risk premia have risen, global inflation-linked bonds are still attractive. European inflation-linked bonds are nearing fair value on a historical basis but there remain considerable opportunities as medium dated European inflation-linked bonds look better value than longer dated and French inflation is starting to look relatively expensive versus European inflation."
Sylvain De Bus, Senior Asser Manager at Dexia Asset Management, "Dexia Bonds Euro Inflation Linked C C" (25.03.2010): "We are positive on EMU inflation linked bonds as a long term investment.
Inflation linked bonds are clearly offering value for long term investors. Break-even levels are standing around 1.75% in the 10Y area (see Germany 2020 linker) and are pricing in a limited inflation risk for the years to come. Break-even inflation levels declined since the start of the year, letting to a negative performance YTD of the asset class relative to nominals. For us the asset class is very interesting as a diversifying position that protects the portfolio against the longer term risk of accelerating inflation in the euro area. Short term support could also come from the carry for long break-even inflation positions that will turn back positive for the coming months."
Frage 4:
e-fundresearch: "Welche Über- und Untergewichtungen haben Sie derzeit im Fonds umgesetzt?"
Mag. Erich Hackl, CFA, Fondsmanager des "PIA – Euro Inflation Linked Bond T" (25.03.2010): "Der Fonds hat derzeit leichtes Untergewicht des Emittenten Frankreich (zugunsten Deutschland und Italien), sowie ein Untergewicht in kurzen Bonds, welche in Kürze den Referenzindex verlassen werden."
Michiel de Bruin, Fondsmanager des "F&C Euro Inflation Linked Bond I" (24.03.2010): "We are overweight bonds linked to European inflation versus bonds linked to French inflation. Also we are slightly overweight inflation linked bonds from peripheral countries being Italy and Greece, believing that yield spreads versus core issuers can converge from current levels as European growth picks up this year."
Laurent Gonon, Fondsmanager des "Amundi Funds Euro Inflation Bond C C" (25.03.2010): "We are currently underweight short term maturities and overweight long term ones (flattening of the yield curve). We expect the curve will flatten in anticipation of future rate hikes. Usually, the curve starts to flatten 6 months before the first hike.
We also have some exposure to inflation expectations as we think they will increase in the next three months.
Finally we are underweight on bonds linked to French inflation compared to bonds linked to Euro inflation. These bonds look expensive and the recent cancellation of the carbon tax will further withdraw some appetite for these bonds."
Andrew Craig, Senior Fixed Income Investment Specialist "Parvest Euro Inflation Linked C C" (23.03.2010): "In our flagship funds we are slightly underweight duration versus our benchmarks. This is a tactical position to take advantage of what we see as a period of declining risk aversion. We have a strong conviction that the 3 - 7 year part of the curve is very attractive, based on our view that the ECB will not hike rates before mid 2011. We are underweight longer dated bonds as we expect they will be subject to some selling pressure coming from the US market."
Tamsin Balfour, Investment Director - Fixed Income bei Standard Life Investments, "Standard Life IG SICAV Euro Inflation-Linked Bd A" (24.03.2010): "We have been tactically playing an underweight peripheral versus core Europe position as we are not confident in the peripheral government abilities sufficiently to reduce their fiscal deficits. We are overweight French real yields against Swedish real yields as we believe that the Riksbank might raise rates earlier than they have currently indicated. We have recently implemented an underweight relative value position on the 5yr5yr part of the European HICPs curve."
Sylvain De Bus, Senior Asser Manager at Dexia Asset Management, "Dexia Bonds Euro Inflation Linked C C" (25.03.2010): "We recently reduced our exposure on € linked issues versus French linked issues. We currently have an overweight on Greek and Italian real yields as we think they offer medium term potential of spread tightening versus their German and French counterparts. Volatility on Greek real yields should however remain important in the short term as Greece has some important financing hurdles to pass in the coming months.
Finally we have a preference for the middle part of the curve relative to the front end as we think inflationary risk is not priced accordedly on the BE-inflation curve taking into account our inflation forecasts. Also in terms of real yields, the accommodative monetary policy of the ECB has brought the short end to extreme levels. Real yields for 2011 maturities are standing at -1.2% while BE-inflation on 2 year issues is standing at 1.75%. We therefore prefer to extend our exposure further out the curve relative to the front end."
Alle Daten per 16.03.2010 in Euro:
