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Die besten Japan Aktienfonds

Die Fondsmanager der besten Japan Aktienfonds beantworten exklusiv 5 Fragen zur ihrem Ausblick für die Entwicklung der jap. Konjunktur, dem jap. Aktienmarkt, die Gewinnentwicklung relevanter Unternehmen, sowie die Titelselektion und den Gewichtungen in ihren Fonds. Funds | 05.04.2010 04:25 Uhr
e-fundresearch: "Wie ist Ihr Ausblick für die Entwicklung der japanischen Konjunktur?" Tony Roberts, Fondsmanager des "Invesco Japanese Equity Core A" (30.03.2010): "The Japanese economy has recovered from the lows during the early part of 2009 and we have seen expansion since the second quarter of last year. Most recently, figures from the Cabinet Office indicated that the Japanese economy recorded annualised growth of 3.8% in the fourth quarter. The key export sector has also strengthened, year-on-year export growth turned positive in December for the first time in 15 months and was 45.3% in February according to data from the Finance Ministry, albeit that this figure is flattered by the unusually weak comparison from a year ago. While challenges still remain, we expect further gradual improvement, built largely on recovery in the manufacturing sector. In our view, this would be enough to see corporate profits in Japan rise further, providing a positive backdrop for equities." Fidelity Investmentexperten (31.03.2010): "Since the onset of the global financial crisis, a stabilisation in economic activity has been catalysed by an unprecedented and globally coordinated fiscal and monetary policy response. This has led to a sharp recovery in some jurisdictions, with the emerging market economies proving to be a particularly important component of global growth. This has undoubtedly put pressure on sovereign debt levels in many western democracies and it has yet to be seen whether this stimulus will be sufficient to stimulate sustained credit growth.

Whilst Japan’s geographical position has allowed it to benefit from Asia’s economic rebound, the domestic economy currently remains unable to shake off what has been an essentially deflationary environment for over a decade. Moreover, the extent of Japan’s negative output gap indicates that price declines will continue well into 2011 and private domestic demand is unlikely to embark upon a self-sustaining recovery in the near future."

Mag. Nicole Strebinger, CIIA, "Meinl Japan Trend" (24.03.2010): "Die japanische Wirtschaft hat mit einer sinkenden Arbeitslosigkeit und recht positiven Konjunkturdaten im jüngsten Quartal für erfreuliche Überraschungen gesorgt. Dennoch ist das stark exportabhängige Japan hoch verschuldet. Hinzu kommt die starke Überalterung der Gesellschaft und auch das deflationäre Umfeld, das voraussichtlich noch länger andauern wird. Somit ergibt sich ein gemischtes Bild für die japanische Wirtschaft. Da sich die japanische Konjunktur aber bereits viel länger in diesem rezessiven Wirtschaftsszenario befindet und sich mit diesem in gewisser Weise arrangiert hat, wie auch die jüngsten Unternehmensergebnisse unterstreichen, ist der Ausblick für Japan insgesamt betrachtet positiv."

Manfred Schraepler, Head of db funds, "DB Platinum IV Cropi Japan R1C" (30.03.2010): "The outlook is positive. Deutsche Bank’s research team has upgraded its forecast for the Japanese economy. GDP growth is expected to increase by 2.3% in 2010, while another 1.0% increase is expected for 2011. The reason for the recent upward revision is mainly rising exports and capital investments of the Japanese economy. Especially exports continue to expand due to the unexpectedly robust global recovery."

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e-fundresearch: "Welche zusätzlichen volkswirtschaftlichen Faktoren beeinflussen derzeit den japanischen Aktienmarkt?"

Tony Roberts, Fondsmanager des "Invesco Japanese Equity Core A" (30.03.2010): "The export sector remains a key contributor to economic growth in Japan and therefore the health of the global economy is particularly important. At the current time, we view this interaction with the global economy as being a major positive for Japanese companies. The large, globally focused exporters are benefiting from vigorous growth being experienced in China and across Asia, while the ongoing recovery in developed markets is also encouraging. We believe that Japanese companies are well positioned to exploit this overseas growth through their brand strength, local knowledge of Asian economies and their market leading expertise in both consumer and capital goods industries."

Fidelity Investmentexperten (31.03.2010): "There are some substantial positives from the corporate sector in Japan and these are likely to be best captured amongst through bottom-up fundamental research. First, the inventory rebuild following the global financial crisis is likely to drive the potential for positive earnings revisions ahead of the full-year results season in the spring. In fiscal 2010, assuming a sustained uptrend in global economic activity and a more stable exchange rate, a sharp rebound in corporate profits should emerge. Second, in certain cases aggressive cost cutting has left companies operationally geared into improving top-line growth. Where this powerful combination exists there could emerge some large earnings surprises in 2010. We believe that divergence in earnings growth, which is often ignored during the early stages of recovery, will become increasingly important as the early stage of recovery ends. This is where many future opportunities should emerge and where stock picking will be particularly important."

Mag. Nicole Strebinger, CIIA, "Meinl Japan Trend" (24.03.2010): "Japans Wirtschaft wird stark vom Export dominiert. Trotz hoher Nachfrage japanischer Güter innerhalb Asiens, haben die USA einen beträchtlichen Anteil an den japanischen Exporten. Somit ist eine Erholung der japanischen Konjunktur unweigerlich mit einem Wirtschaftsaufschwung in den USA verbunden. Für eine Ankurbelung japanischer Exporte ist allerdings der starke Yen von Nachteil, weshalb mit einer Yen-Schwäche in der nächsten Zeit zu rechnen ist."

Manfred Schraepler, Head of db funds, "DB Platinum IV Cropi Japan R1C" (30.03.2010): "The equity market is of course influenced by sales growth and operating margins. Our research team has revised upwards the levels of growth rates for both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries for each three year period from 2010 – 2012. All-industry sales growth is expected to be -12.5% yoy in 2009, 5.5% in 2010, 3.3% in 2011, and 5.0% in 2012. Meanwhile operating profit is expected to increase even stronger, of course partly influenced by the low levels in 2009. After an expected decline of -13.9% in 2009, the analysts look for growth rates of the operating profit by 37.0% in 2010, 18.9% in 2011, and 14.9% in 2012.
Price-to-Book ratios are currently relatively low as ROE is also relatively low. Deutsche Bank’s houseview is that the TOPIX Index could reach JPY 1,200 from April to June 2010 and that it could reach around JPY 1,000 at year end which Deutsche Bank regards as fair value."

Frage 3:

e-fundresearch: "Wie schätzen Sie die Gewinnentwicklung der japanischen Unternehmen in den nächsten 12-18 Monaten ein und wie beurteilen Sie die aktuellen Bewertungen (P/B, P/E)?"

Tony Roberts, Fondsmanager des "Invesco Japanese Equity Core A" (30.03.2010): "Historically, Japan’s earnings cycle has seen pre-tax profit growth of 50-60% in the first year of recovery according to research by Nomura and we are confident of a robust rebound in profits this year. The severe downturn experienced in 2009 saw Japanese companies cut costs aggressively and as a result, we believe that the improvement in profits could be even larger this time around. We have already seen demand pick up and assuming that gradual economic improvement continues then we believe that profit growth of 50% could prove to be conservative.

In terms of price to earnings ratios, these may appear high but this is due to the heavy profit falls experienced last year. As the strong profit recovery that we anticipate comes through, these ratios will come down quickly. We believe that price to book value offers a better indication of the real cheapness of Japanese companies. Based on the broadly based Topix index, Japanese companies are trading at a little over the value of their assets, which leaves them around historic lows and also well below the levels of international peers. While Japanese stocks trade at around 1.2 times book value, shares in the US trade on 2.2 times book based on the S&P 500 and UK shares are at 1.9 times using the FTSE All Share, according to Bloomberg data. Even if you assume that Japanese stocks should trade at some kind of discount to these markets, they still look too cheap in our view."

Mag. Nicole Strebinger, CIIA, "Meinl Japan Trend"  (24.03.2010): "Die jüngsten Quartalsergebnisse in Japan folgen dem positiven globalen Trend. Großteils überraschten viele Unternehmen mit besseren Zahlen als erwartet worden war. Insbesondere Unternehmen aus der Finanzdienstleistungsbranche konnten positiv überzeugen. Die japanischen Unternehmen haben im Gegensatz zu ihren Pendants in den USA oder Europa einen sehr geringen Verschuldungsgrad und damit eine sehr gesunde Basis. Während das Kurs Gewinn Verhältnis wenig vielversprechend aussieht, sind sowohl Kurs Buchwert als auch Kurs Cashflow Verhältnis nach wie vor sehr attraktiv zu bewerten."

Manfred Schraepler, Head of db funds, "DB Platinum IV Cropi Japan R1C" (30.03.2010): "The equity market is of course influenced by sales growth and operating margins. Our research team has revised upwards the levels of growth rates for both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries for each three year period from 2010 – 2012. All-industry sales growth is expected to be -12.5% yoy in 2009, 5.5% in 2010, 3.3% in 2011, and 5.0% in 2012. Meanwhile operating profit is expected to increase even stronger, of course partly influenced by the low levels in 2009. After an expected decline of -13.9% in 2009, the analysts look for growth rates of the operating profit by 37.0% in 2010, 18.9% in 2011, and 14.9% in 2012.
Price-to-Book ratios are currently relatively low as ROE is also relatively low. Deutsche Bank’s houseview is that the TOPIX Index could reach JPY 1,200 from April to June 2010 and that it could reach around JPY 1,000 at year end which Deutsche Bank regards as fair value."

e-fundresearch: "Auf welcher Grundlage erfolgt die Titelselektion für Japan Aktienfonds?"

Tony Roberts, Fondsmanager des "Invesco Japanese Equity Core A" (30.03.2010): "Bottom-up analysis forms the basis of our investment process and it is the key driver of stock selection within our fund. Portfolio construction at sector level is largely determined by this bottom-up process but is also influenced by top-down macro economic views. For us, valuation determines whether or not a stock is attractive. We focus our stock picking on those companies whose potential is not reflected in their valuations. We do not have any predetermined style bias and we can invest across the market capitalisation spectrum."

Ron Slattery, "Fidelity Funds - Japan Advantage A JPY" (31.03.2010): "I utilize a value biased, bottom-up stock selection approach in the management of the fund, an approach that I has applied consistently since I began managing the fund in February 2007. This approach is an appropriate way to manage Japanese equity assets over the long term.

My investment approach places more emphasis on valuation analysis than qualitative analysis of company fundamentals. Valuation analysis marks the starting point of my decision-making process.
 
I select stocks from a universe that includes Fidelity’s own research coverage and most benchmark constituents. I set my own target price for each stock within the investment universe, using 12- to 18-month forward earnings estimates generated by Fidelity’s Japanese equity analysts based in Tokyo.

A stock’s inclusion in the fund is primarily a function of its price relative to the target price. I buy stocks that trade at a discount to the target price and tend to sell stocks that have either achieved or are nearing their target price.
 
Typically, the portfolio consists of around 60 to 90 stocks across a broad range of industries. Sector allocation is a result of stock-picking. I aim to maintain a portfolio that offers superior returns for value, focusing on price-to-earnings (PER) or price-to-book (PBR) measures. I primarily look for stocks that are cheap on at least one of two criteria: 1) PE adjusted for net cash/debt; and/or 2) PBR adjusted for unrealised gains/losses."

June-Yon Kim, "FAST - Japan A JPY Acc" (31.03.2010): "The FAST Japan Fund is essentially a concentrated portfolio of my highest conviction investment ideas selected from a ‘bottom-up’ perspective. As a result of the fund’s structure, I am able to leverage Fidelity’s highest-conviction investment ideas and adjust market exposure to match the underlying investment environment. I am also afforded the ability to synthetically short stocks, which enables me to use our analysts’ highest conviction sell ratings as an additional source of alpha.

On the long side, I seek to identify attractively priced stocks with positive fundamentals that typically fall into one of the following categories:

• Stocks with visible potential returns greater than 20% per annum.
• Attractively valued companies with strong cash-generative business models.
• Companies benefiting from a major product cycle where incremental market share gains are possible.
• Companies experiencing significant margin improvement driven by sales mix changes and/or cost cutting.

On the short side, I am supported by a dedicated shorting analyst, who assists me in identifying short positions in stocks where we believe that:

• Fundamentals warrant a lower price for the stock than is currently priced at in the market.
• There is an identifiable trigger that is likely to cause an imminent share price decline."

Mag. Nicole Strebinger, CIIA, "Meinl Japan Trend"  (24.03.2010): "Der Meinl Japan Trend wird seit 2005 nach einem eigens im Haus entwickelten Value Quant Modell gemanagt. Dieses fokussiert auf diverse Kennzahlen wie zB Est.Price-/Earnings Ratio, rel. Dividendenrendite, Earnings Revisions etc. und rankt diese. Um eventuelle Clusterrisiken zu vermeiden, werden die Titel nochmals gescreent. Die Gesamtaktienquote und eine mögliche Teilabsicherung des Aktienexposures bzw. des Währunsgexposures wird im Rahmen des Asset Allocation Prozesses, der auch für die Dachfonds angewendet wird, festgelegt."

Manfred Schraepler, Head of db funds, "DB Platinum IV Cropi Japan R1C" (30.03.2010): "The DB Platinum CROCI (R) Japan Fund tracks the CROCI Japan Index, which comprises the 30 best value companies on our proprietary CROCI model, selected on a monthly basis. CROCI, which stands for Cash Return on Capital Invested, is a fundamental share analysis process developed by Deutsche Bank. It is used to determine an economical price-earnings ratio, i.e. to make adjustments for differences in accounting and thus balance sheet and earnings indicators. This creates a uniform and comparable investment basis across different industries. The aim of the fund is to identify undervalued stocks and thus earn greater returns in comparison to the relevant benchmark."

Kunihiko Sugio, "Morgan Stanley Japanese Value Equity A JPY" (25.03.2010): "Die wertorientierte Aktienauswahl nach der Bottom-up-Methode konzentriert sich auf Unternehmen mit hervorragender Marktposition, die mit einem erheblichen Abschlag von ihrem langfristigen marktgerechten Wert notieren, auf der Basis der
Analyse der Fundamentaldaten jedes einzelnen Unternehmens, Die ersten Auswahlkriterien anhand der Bewertung stützen sich u.a. auf das Verhältnis Kurs/Cashflow, Kurs/Buchwert und Kurs/Gewinn. Im Rahmen gründlicher Untersuchungen der fundamentalen Voraussetzungen und im Zuge von Besuchen beim Unternehmen werden vor allem die Finanzstruktur, die Unternehmensführung, die Marktposition, die Produkte und die strategischen Werte des Unternehmens geprüft."

Frage 5:

e-fundresearch: "Welche Über- und Untergewichtungen gegenüber der Benchmark sind derzeit im Fonds umgesetzt?"

Tony Roberts, Fondsmanager des "Invesco Japanese Equity Core A" (30.03.2010): "We have significant overweight positions in financials at the current time, as we see exceptional value in these sectors. Specifically, we are overweight in banks, brokers and real estate. We also have some large positions in electronics and in car makers, where we believe that valuations do not adequately reflect the vast potential for growth in Asia, most notably in China, and also from recovery in Western economies. These positions are relative to the Topix index, but the fund is unconstrained and so it is likely to look quite different to the benchmark. In terms of underweight allocations, we currently have no exposure to the more defensive areas, such as telecoms and utilities, as valuations and growth prospects are not as compelling as those in other market sectors in our view."

Ron Slattery, "Fidelity Funds - Japan Advantage A JPY" (31.03.2010): "The fund´s sector and market cap distribution relative to the fund´s benchmark index Russell/Nomura Total Market Value Index is primarily a result of stock selection. The fund´s overweight exposure to the electric appliances sector reflects the manager´s predilection towards undervalued cyclical exporters. Thanks to the recent sell-offs due to concerns about yen appreciation and the sustainability of a recovery in global demand, there are many technology companies that are trading at attractive valuations in terms of PBR and normalised PER."

June-Yon Kim, "FAST - Japan A JPY Acc" (31.03.2010): "The fund’s sector and market-cap distribution relative to its benchmark (MSCI Japan Index) is primarily a result of my bottom-up stock selection process.

In terms of current positioning, the fund’s largest overweight sector position is in IT, where I have exposure to market leaders that are well placed to benefit from a recovery in the semiconductor, LCD and PC hardware cycles. The fund also has a high relative weighting in financials, particularly insurance (heavily discounted in terms of both price-to-NAV and relative to global peers, improving industry fundamentals) and trust banks (well capitalised, strong fee businesses and loan books). I have added some positions in mega banks, where the overhang from equity financing had been eliminated.

On the other hand, the fund is most heavily underweight in healthcare and consumer discretionary, where valuations are close to historical highs and there is little in the way of value."

Mag. Nicole Strebinger, CIIA, "Meinl Japan Trend"  (24.03.2010): "Aktive Abweichungen zur Benchmark, Topix 100 sind derzeit bei Industrials und Technology zu finden, während Financials und zyklische Konsumtitel zuletzt reduziert wurden."

Manfred Schraepler, Head of db funds, "DB Platinum IV Cropi Japan R1C" (30.03.2010): "Companies are equally weighted in the CROCI Japan index. Largest sector overweights and underweights versus TOPIX 100 are overweights in Industrials and Consumer Staples and underweights in Financials and Consumer Discretionary. Our strategy has been very successful: with a fund volume of more than 7 billion JPY the DB Platinum CROCI Japan Fund increased by about 27% in 2009 and by approximately 8% year-to-date. This is an outperformance against the benchmark TOPIX 100."

Alle Daten per 22.03.2010 in Euro:

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