Dr. Philipp Lehmbecker, Fondsresearch der DekaBank, "DekaLuxTeam-EM Bond CF" (21.04.2010): "Currently, the most important fundamental factors in establishing our global emerging markets bond investment strategy are:
- The state of the ongoing global rebalancing process. Capital flows into emerging markets are likely to continue to drive price action and support recent momentum.
- Sustainablity of the economic recovery that will set the risk appetite. We thourougly assess global and emerging market marco trends, which overall are currently supportive.
- Investor risk appetite in general which we assess using a proprietary model.
- Inflation dynamics: Inflation has been picking up across EM countries, and central banks – with some already in tightening mode – could be perceived as falling behind the curve, which would likely create another source of volatility in the market, particularly in an environment of rising commodity prices..
- Market technicals such as such as liquidity, volatility, correlation and momentum.
- Supply and demand dynamics are also likely to set the tone in this quarter: We expect issuance to increase in Q2."
Jed Königsberg, Investment Product Specialist, "MFS Meridian Funds Emerging Markets Debt A1 USD", MFS Investment Management (21.04.2010): "The team analyzes and assesses a variety of economic and political factors to determine overall creditworthiness, including debt/GDP levels, current account balances, trade and foreign investment trends, fiscal and monetary policy, demographics and social indicators, and geopolitical factors."
e-fundresearch: "Wie beurteilen Sie das aktuelle Niveau der Schwellenländer Anleihen Spreads?"
Sergey Dergachev, Portfoliomanager, "UniEuroRenta EmergingMarkets", Union Investment (21.04.2010): "Bei aktuellem Marktumfeld und bei der derzeitigen positiven Liquiditätssituation erwarten wir weiterhin gute Chancen, dass sich die Spreads auf Sicht der kommenden 6 Monate weiter einengen können. Eine Prognose über 6 Monate hinaus fällt momentan schwer, da vor allem die globale Geldpolitik und der Beginn der Zinsanhebungszyklen in Euroland und USA ein entscheidendes Signal für die Anlageklasse EM Bonds sein wird."
Michael Hasenstab, Fondsmanager des "Templeton Emerging Markets Bond A Qdis USD" (21.04.2010): "Die Spreads der Staatsanleihen aus Schwellenmärkten sind jetzt geringer als während der Krise, aber wir finden auch in diesem Sektor noch Wert. Schließlich ist in manchen Ländern mit soliden Fundamentalwerten, die schon seit Jahren keine Anleihen mehr ausgegeben haben, infolge des geringeren Wachstums Finanzbedarf entstanden. Auch bei ausgewählten Unternehmensanleihen sehen wir Chancen für den Templeton Emerging Markets Bond Fund."
Dr. Philipp Lehmbecker, Fondsresearch der DekaBank, "DekaLuxTeam-EM Bond CF" (21.04.2010): "While we believe that current overall valuations already reflect sound growth in 2010, a more discerning market allows for excess return opportunities in differentiating among credits. Range trading could be the main theme in this quarter."
Jed Königsberg, Investment Product Specialist, "MFS Meridian Funds Emerging Markets Debt A1 USD", MFS Investment Management (21.04.2010): "We believe that the current level of sovereign emerging market bond spreads relative to US Treasuries is fair value, considering the dramatic improvement in overall credit quality and macroeconomic stability over the past decade, the current fundamentals, and growth trends in emerging market economies."
Frage 3:
e-fundresearch: "Sind Investments in Schwellenländer-Anleihen in Lokalwährungen derzeit interessant? In welchen Ländern gibt es Chancen und Risiken?"
Sergey Dergachev, Portfoliomanager, "UniEuroRenta EmergingMarkets", Union Investment (21.04.2010): "Bei Lokalwährungsanlagen ist das Bild sehr unterschiedlich. Wir sehen generell momentan die Tendenz hin zu weiter steigenden Inflationsraten bei der Mehrheit der Schwellenländer, und dies wird immer mehr EM Zentralbanken dazu bewegen, die Leitzinsen anzuheben. Dies wird die EM Währungen stützen, die lokalen Rentenpapiere aber belasten. Bei Währungen sind asiatische Währungen wie die indonesische Rupie, der malaysische Ringgit, der südkoreanische Won, chinesische Yuan sowie brasilianische Rupie interessante Anlagesegmente."
Michael Hasenstab, Fondsmanager des "Templeton Emerging Markets Bond A Qdis USD" (21.04.2010): "Wir rechnen damit, dass die asiatischen Währungen mittelfristig gegen die G3 gestützt sein dürften, weil die kräftige Erholung in diesen Ländern die der meisten entwickelten Länder in den Schatten stellt."
Dr. Philipp Lehmbecker, Fondsresearch der DekaBank, "DekaLuxTeam-EM Bond CF" (21.04.2010): "We see potential for further price appreciation of EM assets, especially in local currency debt and corporate bonds. However, note that this fund is designed to exclusivly invest in external emerging market debt instruments and does not hold any local currency exposure. We do hold corporate debt."
Jed Königsberg, Investment Product Specialist, "MFS Meridian Funds Emerging Markets Debt A1 USD", MFS Investment Management (21.04.2010): "We believe that local currency emerging market bonds can offer potentially attractive returns, but are likely to exhibit greater volatility than hard currency emerging market bonds due to the additional risks. These include currency fluctuations, local interest rate risk, regulatory risk and liquidity risk. We see particular value in select Asian currencies, such as the South Korean Won and the Indonesian Rupiah, as well as select Latin American currencies such as the Brazilian Real and the Mexican Peso."
e-fundresearch: "Wie ist Ihr genereller Ausblick für globale Schwellenländer Anleihen in den nächsten 12-18 Monaten?"
Sergey Dergachev, Portfoliomanager, "UniEuroRenta EmergingMarkets", Union Investment (21.04.2010): "Eine Prognose über 6 Monate hinaus fällt momentan schwer, da vor allem die globale Geldpolitik und der Beginn der Zinsanhebungszyklen in Euroland und USA ein entscheidendes Signal für die Anlageklasse EM Bonds sein wird."
Michael Hasenstab, Fondsmanager des "Templeton Emerging Markets Bond A Qdis USD" (21.04.2010): "Angesichts der Wachstumsaussichten in den Schwellenmärkten (insbesondere Asiens) dürfte eine gesunde Risikofreude tatsächlich nach wie vor gerechtfertigt sein. Angeführt wird die Entwicklung weiterhin von China, wobei die dortige Wachstumsdynamik so stark ist, dass die Verantwortlichen für die Geldpolitik über Abkühlungsmaßnahmen nachdenken. Vor dem Hintergrund einer gesunden Erholung hat der Anstieg der Lebensmittelpreise in einigen Schwellenmärkten beachtlichen Inflationsdruck ausgelöst. Einige Zentralbanken haben begonnen, zu einer restriktiveren Geldpolitik zurückzukehren, die etwas stärkere Währungen ermöglichen dürfte. Eine Bewertung der fundamentalen Wachstums- und Inflationsaussichten einzelner Länder dürfte deshalb eine wichtige Orientierung zur Positionierung auf den globalen Zins- und Währungsmärkten liefern."
Dr. Philipp Lehmbecker, Fondsresearch der DekaBank, "DekaLuxTeam-EM Bond CF" (21.04.2010): "Despite the resulting increase in volatility during January and February, and continued noise over fiscal concerns in Europe – particularly Greece – emerging market debt outperformed investment grade and high yield corporate debt in Q1. This was largely driven by substantial structural inflows into the asset class. We believe that this outperformance and the inflows happened with good reason as EM countries continue to show positive trends in GDP growth and population dynamics, and many balance sheets look considerably less shaky than developed market counterparts. While we believe that current overall valuations already reflect sound growth in 2010, a more discerning market allows for excess return opportunities in differentiating among credits. The resiliency of EMD amid adverse headlines in the developed world makes us comfortable with our overall exposure. Our concerns remain the same. Inflation has been picking up across EM countries, and central banks – with some already in tightening mode – could be perceived as falling behind the curve, which would likely create another source of volatility in the market, particularly in an environment of rising commodity prices. Supply could also be an issue: while there appears to be steady inflow absorbing supply, issuance is likely to increase in Q2. Lastly, a double dip scenario remains a risk, although likely more a year-end risk. Despite these risks, our Q2 strategic view remains constructive toward EM assets. Inflows continue to support the market, and fundamentals remain sound. In all, fundamentals, the cycle, and inflows can support further tightening, though valuations are not as compelling. Key drivers remain very supportive, however, in particular macro trends in developing and emerging economies as well as capital flows. Our main themes lead us to see further price appreciation for EM assets with a preference for FX and corporate bonds. We also expect supply to make the credit market more range bound at some point. We also expect higher issuance in Q2 to reinforce this range trading. Moreover, a rising interest rate environment, particularly if driven by perceptions of central banks being behind the curve, may lead to repricing in risky assets, thus the correlation of EM spreads to US treasuries should be monitored."
Jed Königsberg, Investment Product Specialist, "MFS Meridian Funds Emerging Markets Debt A1 USD", MFS Investment Management (21.04.2010): "We believe that emerging market bonds are likely to provide investors with attractive risk-adjusted returns over the coming months. A combination of improving credit quality, solid credit fundamentals, and healthy economic growth should help support prices. In addition, we expect capital to continue to flow into this asset class and emerging markets more generally over this time period. We do not expect emerging markets debt to provide the same level of absolute returns that the asset class has generated over the past ten years. However, we believe investors can benefit from the diversification properties and risk-adjusted returns we expect the from the asset class."
e-fundresearch: "Welche Über- und Untergewichtungen haben Sie derzeit in globalen Schwellenländer Anleihenfonds umgesetzt? Wie hoch ist der Anteil von Unternehmensanleihen?"
Sergey Dergachev, Portfoliomanager, "UniEuroRenta EmergingMarkets", Union Investment (21.04.2010): "Grösste Übergewichte sind momentan: Qatar, Argentinien, Venezuela, Kasachstan und Russland. Grösste Untergewichte sind: China, Philippinen, Tschechien und Israel."
Michael Hasenstab, Fondsmanager des "Templeton Emerging Markets Bond A Qdis USD" (21.04.2010): "Der Templeton Emerging Markets Bond Fund ist im Vergleich zu seiner Benchmark übergewichtet in Asien ex Japan und in Europa ohne Euro. Untergewichtet ist er in Ländern mit EUR-Währung. Der Anteil der Unternehmensanleihen beträgt 5,28%. (Stand: 31.03.2010)."
Dr. Philipp Lehmbecker, Fondsresearch der DekaBank, "DekaLuxTeam-EM Bond CF" (21.04.2010): "The main overweights in the portfolio are Russia, Brazil, Venezuela, Peru and Kazakhstan. We are underweighted in Malaysia, Lebanon, Poland and Turkey. Our current weighting in corporate bonds is 7.2%."
Jed Königsberg, Investment Product Specialist, "MFS Meridian Funds Emerging Markets Debt A1 USD", MFS Investment Management (21.04.2010): "The Fund currently favors debt from Russia, Argentina, and a number of smaller credits such as Trinidad and Tobago. The Fund is underweight bonds issued by Mexico, Turkey and Lebanon. The Fund also has roughly 14% invested in corporate bonds."
Alle Daten per 13.04.2010 in Euro:
