Koji Nakatsuka, Fondsmanager, "Allianz RCM Japan Smaller Companies - A - EUR" (18.05.2010): "Price/book value ratio (PBR) is the appropriate valuation measure for Japanese Mid/Small Cap stocks."
Nakaba Minai, Co-Lead Portfolio Manager, "Goldman Sachs Japan Small Cap Pf Base Curr JPY" (20.05.2010): "Stock prices have been reacting dramatically to the new fiscal year’s guidance that each company has announced since the end April, which is the most relevant factor for stock price formation in the current market environment. Compared to large cap market, as there are less consensus for earnings estimates for each company in small/mid cap market, stock prices have reacting hugely on earnings guidance announcements."
Online-Event mit Flossbach von Storch | Wie gelingt der Spagat zwischen Substanzerhalt, Rendite und Nachhaltigkeit?
Sehr geehrte Damen und Herren, wir freuen uns, professionellen InvestorInnen das am Montag, den 22. März um 14:30 Uhr durchgeführte e-fundresearch.com Online-Event "30 Minuten mit Flossbach von Storch...Ayumi Kobayashi, Fondsmanagerin, "Schroder ISF Japanese Smaller Companies A Acc" (19.05.2010):
"- The large manufacturers’ diffusion index in the March BOJ Tankan survey of corporate sentiment showed a fourth straight quarter of improvement
- The Economy Watchers Survey by the cabinet office showed a forth straight month of improvement in March
- March core CPI decreased by 1.2%, the thirteenth consecutive y/y decline
- March industrial output increased by 0.3% m/m
- New housing starts dropped by 2.4% in March
- Department store sales still decreased by 3.5% in March, the 25th consecutive m/m decline."
e-fundresearch: "Wie interpretieren Sie diese relevanten Kennzahlen?"
Tadahiro Fujimura, Senior Fund Manager, "Swisscanto (LU) Eq Fd Small & Mid Caps Japan B" (18.05.2010): "We interpret both previously mentioned facts to conclude that there are plenty of neglected, inexpensive names in the small-cap arena. In our opinion, the reason why low PBR names have been performing well recently regardless of their short-term earnings outlook is that investors have turned cautions given the current economic situation especially in Europe. The previously mentioned profit taking has provided an opportunity in the export manufacturers due to their sustained earnings growth going forward."
Yun-Young Lee und Michael Wood-Martin, Fondsmanager, "Henderson HF Japanese Smaller Companies A2" (18.05.2010): "Compared to 2 to 3 years ago, I feel I can find these high growing companies at more reasonably price currently. Hence, I would say that there is more investment opportunities now compared to 2 to 3 years ago."
Koji Nakatsuka, Fondsmanager, "Allianz RCM Japan Smaller Companies - A - EUR" (18.05.2010): "PER works in the normalized economy condition. Most of the large cap companies will (or some of them have already) get back to normalized business condition. Therefore, PER can be used for large cap stocks. For Mid & small companies, the business conditions are still on the way of going back to normal level. This is because of the time-lag between overall economy trend and Mid/Small companies´ business circumstances. Therefore, PBR is the more appropriate valuation method."
Nakaba Minai, Co-Lead Portfolio Manager, "Goldman Sachs Japan Small Cap Pf Base Curr JPY" (20.05.2010): "All research analysts/portfolio managers in our team conduct thorough fundamental research of individual companies through company visits, and estimate earnings outlook. For the fiscal year 2010, recurring profits for corporate earnings could potentially be up +35% year-on-year in the overall market (for both large cap and small cap). Most companies have been conservative more with outlook for the latter half of the year than the first half of the year, as there are still uncertainty surrounding global economic environment, forex trend, and commodity prices movement. Thus, after analyzing the earnings results for the last fiscal year and revising our estimates for this fiscal year, we think most of small cap companies have provided conservative guidance, and we think upward revisions will be likely going forward."
Ayumi Kobayashi, Fondsmanagerin, "Schroder ISF Japanese Smaller Companies A Acc" (19.05.2010): "Economic data continues to support our view that the global economy is beginning to recover. Although the external side of the Japanese economy is outpacing the domestic, we expect to see clearer signs of improvement at home over the coming months. Confidence in the recovery has increased and we maintain our positive outlook for the future. The stockmarket should be supported by the renewed fiscal stimulus and easy monetary policies – unlike some other parts of the world, we do not see the Japanese authorities starting to exit their loose monetary stance in the near future, principally due to current deflation. A profit recovery is underway and should continue through into 2010, helped by rebounding exports and cost cutting at many firms. A short-term correction can never be ruled out and we acknowledge risks including rapid tightening measures in China and the possibility of further strengthening of the yen."
Frage 3:
e-fundresearch: "Welche Über- und Untergewichtungen sind derzeit im Fonds umgesetzt?"
Tadahiro Fujimura, Senior Fund Manager, "Swisscanto (LU) Eq Fd Small & Mid Caps Japan B" (18.05.2010): "In our opinion, Japanese Small and Mid Caps are well positioned to capitalize on changes associated with government change, new technology trends and economic growth in Asia.
The Fund has a significant exposure to manufacturers which would benefit from China’s growth and an increasing demand for energy saving technologies. Also, with our view that deflation is ending, the Fund has domestic-oriented names such as retailers and real estate-related companies which are experiencing a recovery in their earnings. On the other hands, given the current political uncertainty until the upper-house election, the Fund has less exposure on banks and constructions which are policy sensitive."
Yun-Young Lee und Michael Wood-Martin, Fondsmanager, "Henderson HF Japanese Smaller Companies A2" (18.05.2010): "I am currently overweighting structurally growing sectors such as generic drug maker, internet advertising agency, solar cell maker, et al. I am underweighting weak balance sheet companies, which I expect the risk of dilution via equity financing."
Koji Nakatsuka, Fondsmanager, "Allianz RCM Japan Smaller Companies - A - EUR" (18.05.2010): "Instead of popular sector classification (e.g. MSCI) we use five categories for this strategy, namely BRICs (category 1) Domestic (category 2) Turnaround (category 3) Exporters (category 4) and Financials (category 5)
Since we have a bullish stance on the US economy and we expect that JPY will depreciate, we overweight exporters. We used to overweight BRICs, but given the tightening concern in China, we decreased the O/W in this category.
We are now focusing on Turnaround (Category 3). Since this doesn´t refer to any specific sector, you cannot find in a sector allocation table. There are turnaround stocks across the board."
Nakaba Minai, Co-Lead Portfolio Manager, "Goldman Sachs Japan Small Cap Pf Base Curr JPY" (20.05.2010): "Our sector allocation is a result of our bottom-up approach, and bottom-up research is the key driver of our alpha generating process. Our current holdings mainly include stocks which have strong earnings recovery with attractive valuation such as those in electronic parts sector or industrial parts sector. As a result of this, we have overweight electronic parts and industrial parts sector while we underweight software, construction, and financial sectors."
Ayumi Kobayashi, Fondsmanagerin, "Schroder ISF Japanese Smaller Companies A Acc" (19.05.2010): "Within the cyclical sectors, we are rotating out of companies where recovery is already priced in, towards laggards and cheaper names. Regarding domestic demand-oriented stocks, which have lagged in performance so far, valuations seems to attractive levels based on possible business recovery in the not too distant future. We are gradually adding to positions in business service companies and consumption related stocks. Risks from sector allocation and other factor exposures, including foreign exchange exposure, remain minimized."
e-fundresearch: "Bitte kommentieren Sie die Performance- und Risikokennzahlen Ihres Fonds im laufenden Jahr und in den letzten 3 bzw. 5 Jahren."
Tadahiro Fujimura, Senior Fund Manager, "Swisscanto (LU) Eq Fd Small & Mid Caps Japan B" (18.05.2010): "The Fund rose +13.57%, outperforming the benchmark by about +3%. Over the past 3 and 5 years, the Fund performance was down --34.10% outperforming benchmark by +8.22% and -5.13% outperforming the benchmark by +12.67%."
Yun-Young Lee und Michael Wood-Martin, Fondsmanager, "Henderson HF Japanese Smaller Companies A2" (18.05.2010): "The performance of the fund in USD; YTD (as of end April) = +18.9% vs benchmark +13.2%, 3 years = +2.7% vs benchmark -26.1%, 5 years = +8.7% vs benchmark -25%. As a stock picker, strong stock selection was the main driver of superior performance to the index."
Koji Nakatsuka, Fondsmanager, "Allianz RCM Japan Smaller Companies - A - EUR" (18.05.2010): "In 2010, the fund is underperforming so far. The value-stocks started outperforming the growth-stocks since the beginning of the year. Given the fund´s tilt toward growth factor, this value driven trend was not favourable.
Our current strategy is to focus on laggard turnaround names. Most of the companies (especially large cap companies) already recovered last year. However, given the time-lag of the business cycle, some Mid&Small companies´ business conditions are expected to improve from now on. This strategy will also reduce the growth factor of the fund.
Since Koji Nakatsuka took over the fund in Nov 2005, the fund is ranked in the top quartile in his peer group. 2008 was particularly difficult year when the fund was suffering under large swing of broader market. However, the loss in 2008 was more than offset by the out-performance in 2009. The abnormal condition of economy and the equity market doesn´t last forever. Assuming normalized condition, the fund bought a number of "oversold" companies in turnaround situation which turned out to be successful."
Nakaba Minai, Co-Lead Portfolio Manager, "Goldman Sachs Japan Small Cap Pf Base Curr JPY" (20.05.2010): "FactSet is our primary attribution and risk analytics tool. As we introduced our FactSet portfolio attribution system at the end of 2005, our attribution data is available from 2006.
Additionally, we use a risk analytics tool utilizing the BARRA risk model. Currently our risk model shows beta for our portfolio is 1.0 as we anticipate Japan small cap market to move in a box range for a while. We take enough consideration with regards to liquidity and we hold stocks with relatively high average daily volume. Moreover, we are shifting our portfolio to increase those stocks with higher earnings growth and more attractive valuation. Sensitivity of our portfolio toward the global macro economy is neutral."
Frage 5:
e-fundresearch: "Wie schätzen Sie die relative Entwicklung von Japan Small/MidCaps in den nächsten 6-12 Monaten ein?"
Tadahiro Fujimura, Senior Fund Manager, "Swisscanto (LU) Eq Fd Small & Mid Caps Japan B" (18.05.2010): "We expect a multi-year period of out-performance from small and mid caps which bottomed in 2009. Our research indicates that due to cost cuts, which occurred over the past few years, revenues of small and mid caps will grow faster than costs. Also, there are plenty of neglected or inexpensive names in the small-cap arena compared to the larger caps. Finally, historical market cycles point toward the outperformance of the small and mid caps versus large caps."
Yun-Young Lee und Michael Wood-Martin, Fondsmanager, "Henderson HF Japanese Smaller Companies A2" (18.05.2010): "Large cap stocks are historically more correlated with global economies, and therefore, if current global sovereign risks impact global equity markets negatively, I believe Japanese small/mid cap sector should deliver handsome outperformance in next 2 to 3 quarters."
Koji Nakatsuka, Fondsmanager, "Allianz RCM Japan Smaller Companies - A - EUR" (18.05.2010): "We remain our positive view on Mid & Small market with following reasons:
1) Attractive valuation in Mid&Small market. This is mainly because they are still at the recovery stage due to time-lag of economy swings. Given the current solid economy trend driven by the US recovery, these Mid&Small cap companies´ business will get back to normalized- or above normal growth trend line this year. Therefore, Mid&Small cap stocks will jump from "the recovery stage" to "the growth stage". Namely, PBR will go back to appropriate level, then, on top of that, PER will start expand factoring in the future growth opportunity.
2) The Mid&Small cap companies cut fixed cost drastically since Lehman shock. Since Mid&Small companies´ cost structures tend to be more simple compared to large cap conglomerate companies. Therefore they could reduce the fixed cost immediately to cope with the recession in a flexible way. Since their fixed costs remain at low level, the most of Mid&Small companies will enjoy the high operating leverage effect this year, i.e. the revenue increases without the increase of fixed cost, then the profitability improves.
3) Accommodative policy of BoJ expected. In order to tackle with lingering deflation, it is expected that BoJ could implement the drastic easing policy. It has been proven that the Mid& Small cap stocks are more sensitive to liquidity because abundant liquidity can reduce credit risks."
Nakaba Minai, Co-Lead Portfolio Manager, "Goldman Sachs Japan Small Cap Pf Base Curr JPY" (20.05.2010): "We think there are more stocks which have remained undervalued in Japan small cap space than large cap market and those stocks with low P/E or low P/B are likely to rally as investors’ expectation on earnings growth increase. As most companies have already announced the earnings results, we anticipate the market will move in a box range for a while, reflecting global economic environment, forex trend and commodity prices movement. However, from July to August, we expect the market will focus on corporate earnings again as companies announce April-June earnings results, and we think upward revisions are likely. From the mid to the end of the year, we think the market will put focus on sustainable earnings growth into the next fiscal year. In comparison with large cap stocks, we think small cap stocks have more opportunity for stock selection as earnings for small cap companies tend to volatile more."
Alle Daten per 10.05.2010 in Euro:
