e-fundresearch: "Welche Faktoren sind für die Beurteilung der Aktienmärkte in der Region Asien ex Japan derzeit am wichtigsten?"
Yit-Mee Cheah, Portfoliomanagerin des "UBS (Lux) Eq Fd - Asia Opportunity (USD) P-acc" (04.08.2010): "Focus on stock selection - companies with differentiated competitive strengths which can deliver robust returns on capital over the cycle. Amidst an uncertain global economic outlook, we want to focus on those than they can not only navigate through potential potholes, but potentially strengthen their competitive positioning."
David Urquhart, Fondsmanager des "Fidelity Inst South East Asia Acc" (06.08.2010): "The key strategy for the fund continues to be to focus on those companies where the earnings potential of individual companies is mis-priced (most likely because they underestimate the earnings potential). Key areas of focus are
1. Companies that are increasing market share globally even in a sluggish economic environment. This includes companies that have seen some of their competitors go bankrupt in the last few years.
2. Companies that will benefit from the global recovery, especially those that can benefit from increased corporate spending. Sectors especially sensitive to this will be IT and Media.
3. Companies that have managed to improve their cost competitiveness and will see stronger margins as demand returns."
Dr. Mark Mobius, Fondsmanager des "Templeton Asian Growth A (Ydis) USD" (04.08.2010): "Zu jeder Zeit gilt: Unsere Anlagestrategie beruht auf einem wertorientierten, langfristigen Bottom-up-Ansatz, der auf der Analyse der fundamentalen Voraussetzungen von Unternehmen beruht. Wir führen Tiefenanalysen durch, um das Ertrags-, Vermögens-, Wachstums- und Cashflow-Potenzial über einen Horizont von fünf Jahren zu bewerten. Im Zuge unserer Analysen berücksichtigen wir auch die Position eines Unternehmens in seinem Sektor, die wirtschaftlichen und politischen Rahmenbedingungen sowie den Wert, die Liquidität und die Kapitalisierung einer Aktie. Unsere Sektor- und Länderallokation ergibt sich daher aus diesem Bottom-up-Verfahren."
Allan Liu, Fondsmanager des "Fidelity Funds - South East Asia A USD" (06.08.2010): "The correction in Far East ex Japan markets since April largely reflected a rise in perceived risks, even as the underlying macroeconomic and earning fundamentals remained strong. Most of the worries revolved around sovereign debt issues in Europe, concerns about the impact of monetary tightening in China, and uncertainties over the timing and extent of policy and tax changes in many markets. Strong first quarter GDP growth in China was mirrored by the rest of the region – Singapore, Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia benefited from a revival in exports that stimulated industrial activity. Consequently, key interest rates were raised in Taiwan and Malaysia, expressing confidence in the recovery. Chinese stocks suffered on account of regulatory focus on curbing property demand and restricting local government investment activities. A fall in commodity prices hurt materials producers, while financials and industrials came under pressure in view of rising risk aversion among smaller exchanges. Indonesia remained resilient, helped by a ratings upgrade by Moody’s and robust consumption growth."
Anna Ho, Fondsmanagerin des "NESTOR Fernost Fonds" (29.07.2010): "The most important factor looking at Asia ex Japan is the domestic demand situation of each market. Given the uncertainties in the recovery of global developed markets of US and Europe, Asian countries with strong domestic demand can best insulate themselves from global shocks."
Ben Surtees, Fondsmanager des "Jupiter JGF Asia Pacific L USD" (03.08.2010): "The starting point for our investment methodology is to identify attractive themes and structural trends that we think can shape Asian economic growth independently of external factors such as whether the US economy expands or contracts. Ideally we try and identify companies that fit into these themes that display predictable revenue and profit streams, enhanced by strong barriers to entry. We are patient investors, and not momentum-driven, so have strong price discipline when it comes to buying a stock."
Joseph Tse, Fondsmanager des "Fidelity Funds - Asian Special Sits A" (06.08.2010): "Decisive policy responses and resilient domestic demand are supporting economic growth in Asia Pacific ex Japan countries. Domestic inflation and European sovereign risk issues have been principal headwinds to regional equities this year. The tailwinds, however, include global economic recovery and continued positive revisions to earnings. The region nonetheless faces the challenge of maintaining momentum against the backdrop of a gradual unwinding of expansionary measures and a slow pickup in external demand.
Against this background, I maintain high conviction in our region’s long-term positive fundamentals and believe that good companies trading on reasonable valuations should perform well. I emphasise on sound businesses and, additionally, favour globally competitive companies with a proven management track record of creating shareholder value on a sustainable basis. These fundamental factors I focus on have not changed over time."
Frage 2:
e-fundresearch: "Welche Regionen und/oder Sektoren sind derzeit in Asien ex Japan Fonds über- und untergewichtet? Was sind die Gründe dafür?"
Yit-Mee Cheah, Portfoliomanagerin des "UBS (Lux) Eq Fd - Asia Opportunity (USD) P-acc" (04.08.2010): "Opinions on China remain split, mostly due to concerns that policy mistakes will lead to a hard lending. The structural Asian consumption growth theme appears to be gaining traction, leading to a re-rating in many consumer names, particularly in the less-penetrated markets in China, India and ASEAN*."
*ASEAN: Die 10 Mitgliedstaaten sind: Indonesien, Malaysia, Singapur, Thailand, Vietnam, Kambodscha, Laos, Brunei, die Philippinen und Myanmar (Burma).David Urquhart, Fondsmanager des "Fidelity Inst South East Asia Acc" (06.08.2010): "I have positioned the portfolio to benefit from the structural changes that I believe are taking place in Asia, particularly China. At present, I am overweight technology and consumer discretionary sectors. In the consumer discretionary sector I like Asian brand names that are gaining market share as their product quality is being improved and consumer’s are recognising that they offer “value for money”. In the technology sector, when demand picks up, companies will begin to reinvest and corporate demand for technology products should also increase and be beneficial to technology companies.
The fund currently holds an overweight stance towards energy. I initiated a position in China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, popularly known as Sinopec, due to the move to a more market-based pricing structure for refined oil products in China. The fund holds an overweight exposure to banks by holding stocks with good asset quality such as Standard Chartered and HSBC Holdings. KASIKORN BANK in Thailand was added to the portfolio as political unrest in the country pulled down the valuations but the underlying economy has not only been resiliant but increasingly seen as buoyant. The fund holds an underweight position in financials mainly due to an underweight exposure to property and insurance names in the sector. Exposure to telecommunications and utilities is also limited as I find better opportunities outside these sectors."
Dr. Mark Mobius, Fondsmanager des "Templeton Asian Growth A (Ydis) USD" (04.08.2010): "Anhaltende Anzeichen einer Konjunkturerholung, vor allem in Asien, sorgten in den letzten Wochen für eine Rückkehr des Vertrauens und eine günstigere Prognose der Verbrauchernachfrage. Davon profitierten Unternehmen in den Sektoren zyklische und nicht zyklische Konsumgüter, in denen Positionen in Automobilherstellern, Lebensmittelunternehmen und Medienfirmen mit Sitz in Indonesien, China und Thailand die größten Zuwächse im Portfolio verzeichneten. Steigendes Wirtschaftswachstum, größeres Verbrauchervertrauen und eine robuste Binnennachfrage haben die Aussichten für bestimmte Autohersteller in Asien erheblich verbessert. 2009 überholte China die USA als weltgrößter Automobilmarkt, dank einer Reihe von automobilbezogenen Anreizmaßnahmen, Steuervergünstigungen und Zuschüssen der chinesischen Regierung (Quellen: Reuters, 2. Juni 2009 und Wall Street Journal, 12. Januar 2010).
Seit mehreren Monaten liegt unser Schwerpunkt nun schon auf den beiden Sektoren Verbraucher und Rohstoffe. Geringe Penetration und steigende Nachfrage bei Konsumprodukten und Dienstleistungen in Asien weisen auf enormes Potenzial für konsumabhängige Unternehmen hin, da Pro-Kopf-Einkommen und Kaufkraft in der Region stetig anziehen. Wir achten auf Chancen in Bereichen, die dem Einfluss der Verbraucher unterliegen, wie Autos und Einzelhandel.
Auch Verbraucherbanken dürften profitieren, wenn sie sich die Millionen Kunden erschließen, die bislang noch kein Bankkonto besitzen, doch künftig vermutlich Verbraucherkredite und schließlich auch Kreditkarten nutzen werden. Unserer Ansicht nach bieten auch Rohstoffe eine Möglichkeit, aus der steigenden Nachfrage und dem Zugang zum Wachstumskurs von Ländern wie China und Indien Kapital zu schlagen, da hohes Wirtschaftswachstum zu mehr Rohstoffnachfrage führt. Unseres Erachtens könnte die globale Rohstoffnachfrage das Angebot langfristig übersteigen, was einen Aufwärtstrend der Rohstoffpreise auslösen wird. Spekulationen auf Derivatemärkten dürften jedoch zu verstärkten Preisschwankungen führen und wir gehen davon aus, dass dieser Aufwärtstrend kaum gleichmäßig verlaufen wird. In diesem Bereich interessieren wir uns für Unternehmen mit Stärken in der Produktion von Rohstoffen wie Öl, Eisenerz, Aluminium, Kupfer, Nickel oder Platin."
Allan Liu, Fondsmanager des "Fidelity Funds - South East Asia A USD" (06.08.2010): "The fund is optimistic about sectors which are likely to benefit from structural growth in domestic consumption and increasing prosperity in the region. Consequently the consumer discretionary sector is the fund’s biggest overweight, particularly in China and Korea. I also favour domestic focused technology companies in China, particularly those benefiting from structural growth in internet penetration and advertising revenues. The industrials sector is another overweight, particularly airlines stocks, which is benefiting from growth in tourism, as well as select ship-builders and engineering and construction firms.
A key underweight position is the real estate sector, in view of adverse regulatory developments in China and limited sales growth elsewhere. I also underweight telecommunications stocks because of unfavourable regulatory environment and utilities due to their limited growth prospects."
Anna Ho, Fondsmanagerin des "NESTOR Fernost Fonds" (29.07.2010): "Regional funds have been overweight India over the last 6 to 12 months because it is the least open economy and therefore the least subject to global shock. Also unlike China, India’s government did not threaten investors with tightening policies. China has not been favoured by investors lately given the uncertainty related to government tightening, and also the news on its labour issues and on the concern of weakening exports. However, given the divergence in stock market performance between China and India over the last 6 months, and the tuning down of the structural tightening policies in China, we believe going forward more investors will increase their weights in China in the expense of India.
We are permanently overweight China and India markets as part of our investment style. We use the thematic approach to invest, by themes we mean secular trends such as emerging middle class, infrastructure boom…etc. We believe themes can ride above cyclical trends in the long run. We found that most of the themes are happening in the large and deep economies of China and India, and therefore we mainly invest in these two markets."
Ben Surtees, Fondsmanager des "Jupiter JGF Asia Pacific L USD" (03.08.2010): "At the end of June, the largest country weighting in the fund was China and Hong Kong, reflecting our confidence in the strength of those areas. The rest of the fund is relatively evenly distributed among other Asian Pacific countries in line with the size of their markets. In terms of sectors, the largest proportion of the fund – around 30% – is invested in Financials, in line with the benchmark, and we are significantly underweight oil and gas holdings. We are particularly focused on consumption-related investments as that is where we see the most attractive growth prospects. The difficulty is that valuations command a high premium in this field so we try and find subsectors such as education in order to benefit at a discount."
Joseph Tse, Fondsmanager des "Fidelity Funds - Asian Special Sits A" (06.08.2010): "The fund is significantly overweight China because I am a partial believer of the decoupling thesis and so far the decoupling thesis has seemingly played out quite well. China continues to lead the region’s decisive economic rebound while growth in the developed world remains slow. The underweight positions in Singapore and Malaysia were maintained given the lack of buy ideas in these markets. An overall underweight exposure to Korea and Taiwan is maintained but I favour companies with a global presence especially in the technology space. The fund’s resources and gold exposure is implemented through non-benchmark investments in Australia.
I currently hold an overweight position to the consumer discretionary sector. The growth of the middle class as well as recent labour wage increases in China is likely to result in greater consumer spending power and boost consumption. The allocation to the telecommunications sector was increased by adding those companies which are witnessing market share gains. Meanwhile, I trimmed industrials, energy and financials stocks. A number of banking positions were closed as the sector as a whole may experience structural de-rating as they enter into a period of multi-year de-leveraging."
Frage 3:
e-fundresearch: "Welche Rolle wird China in zehn Jahren übernehmen?"
Yit-Mee Cheah, Portfoliomanagerin des "UBS (Lux) Eq Fd - Asia Opportunity (USD) P-acc" (04.08.2010): "Amongst many roles that China will play on the economic and political arena, one of the most significant is likely its growing status as a sizeable and fast-growing consumer market. The next decade should see visible progress of China´s transition from the current export-led growth model to one with a strong and vibrant domestic economy."
David Urquhart, Fondsmanager des "Fidelity Inst South East Asia Acc" (06.08.2010): "China has recently become the world’s second largest economy and continues to deliver strong growth. I believe that emerging markets in Asia such as China is the place where nominal growth, profits and yields can be found. This is the basis for taking a positive view, not to mention that major Asian emerging market countries do not have the same structural imbalances or the public-sector debt problems that plague the G7 economies.
China has been a favoured market for investors as they continue to look for growth, and relative to the rest of the world, the country has better potential for sustainable earnings growth. China, with its substantial stimulus measures, generally healthy financial systems, lack of debt, large savings pool and positive demographics, remains extremely attractive for investors. The country remains one of the most promising investment opportunities of the next decade as its economic growth drivers continue to shift with future growth coming more from domestic consumption rather than exports. At the same time, it’s also entering a phase in its development when many areas will show rapid progress over the next ten years."
Dr. Mark Mobius, Fondsmanager des "Templeton Asian Growth A (Ydis) USD" (04.08.2010): "Schwellenländer, allen voran China, versuchen seit langem ihr bestes um deren Markt zu vergrößern, aber dies benötigt Zeit. Die meisten Schwellenländer haben kein Pensionssystem, kein freies Bildungs- und kein freies Pensionssystem. Daher müssen die Bevölkerungen sparen und in Folge sind in diesen Ländern die Spareinlagen besonders hoch und weniger verfügbar. Trotzdem, wenn das Per-Kopf-Einkommen steigt, wird sich auch die Wirtschaft entsprechend verändern.
Es gibt Berichte wonach sich China’s GDP auf die 5 Trillionen US$ Marke verkürzt, während das GDP der Vereinigten Staaten derzeit bei 14 Trillion US$ liegt. In vier Jahrzehnten könnte China’s Wirtschaft so groß, wenn nicht sogar größer, als die der Vereinigten Staaten sein. China’s Stimme am globalen Markt wird von Tag zu Tag lauter. Dies gilt auch für die anderen BRIC Länder. Diese Veränderung zeigt sich auch am letzten G20 Gipfel und auf anderen globalen Treffen.
Die Verbraucher und die Wirtschaftsgüter sind die Schlüssel-Investment-Themen in den Schwellenländern. Wir glauben, dass die Verbraucher Geschichte in China einen guten Anfang nimmt und dass diese Region weiteren Fortschritt verzeichnen wird."
Allan Liu, Fondsmanager des "Fidelity Funds - South East Asia A USD" (06.08.2010): "I expect that the Chinese economy would continue to play a pivotal role in the Far East ex Japan region. The growth drivers in China are shifting and future growth will come from domestic consumption rather than exports. Its strong structural growth trends – a growing labor force, strong domestic consumption and increased infrastructure spending – should lead to a sustained growth in domestic demand. While near term concerns about sovereign debt problems in Europe and reversion to less loose monetary policies in China could hurt investor sentiment, my view is that those who stay invested will be rewarded handsomely over the long term."
Anna Ho, Fondsmanagerin des "NESTOR Fernost Fonds" (29.07.2010): "China is expected to soon take over US as the largest trading partner (for both tradable and non tradable goods) of all Asian countries."
Ben Surtees, Fondsmanager des "Jupiter JGF Asia Pacific L USD" (03.08.2010): "In my view, China is and will continue to be the main driver for growth in the Asia Pacific region, alongside India. Although it is very difficult to predict the future, we are confident that China will continue to constitute the largest market in the region and its presence in global economic forums will undoubtedly strengthen. Growth in the economy will be underpinned by social, infrastructural and economic development on a continued unprecedented scale. The growth of the last ten years has created the stepping stones necessary for future economic prosperity."
Joseph Tse, Fondsmanager des "Fidelity Funds - Asian Special Sits A" (06.08.2010): "China is playing an increasingly dominant role in the regional and world economy. Recent macroeconomic indicators point towards slowing growth globally as the sharp economic recovery seen after the recession is losing momentum. In China, the tightening process that started late last year is also slowing the economy although growth is still well above that being seen in developed markets. In a low growth environment the high relative growth being experienced in China is increasingly attractive to global investors. As such, China remains one of the most promising investment opportunities of the next decade. It was widely expected that China would allow a gradual appreciation of the yuan. I see this move as a part of an overall strategy to promote long term sustainable growth in the economy as it boosts domestic consumption and reduces dependence on exports. In particular, countries exporting to China for consumption including Hong Kong, Taiwan and Korea will be beneficiaries of the expansion in mainland China."
Frage 4:
e-fundresearch: "Bitte kommentieren Sie die Performance- und Risikokennzahlen Ihres Fonds im laufenden Jahr und in den letzten 3 bzw. 5 Jahren."
Yit-Mee Cheah, Portfoliomanagerin des "UBS (Lux) Eq Fd - Asia Opportunity (USD) P-acc" (04.08.2010): "Not applicable, since the fund was repositioned on July 19, 2010. However, we have similar strategies which have shown strong performance in the past.
Currently the fund is concentrated in a basket of less than thirty companies which meet our criteria of quality, sustainable franchises which are positioned to tap into longer term opportunities in Asia."
David Urquhart, Fondsmanager des "Fidelity Inst South East Asia Acc" (06.08.2010): "Year-to-date:
The fund underperformed its benchmark over six month review period largely due to weak performance in steel stocks. Holdings in Australia’s BlueScope Steel and Korea-based low cost producer POSCO fell out of favour as concerns that a slow down in growth would reduce the demand for steel. Shares in Rio Tinto retreated amid a deteriorating iron ore price outlook.
In the last quarter the more defensive sectors delivered better performance. The fund is underweight telecommunication stocks including China Mobile and this detracted from performance, as investors favoured the sector’s defensive qualities when concerns of a “double dip” recession arose. I retain the underweight stance due to limited earnings growth potential as compared to other sectors.
Conversely, security selection in financials contributed. Exposure to rapidly expanding banks in less-penetrated market proved rewarding as did limited exposure to Australian banks which saw lacklustre earnings. Bank Rakyat Indonesia and India-based LIC Housing Finance are held as they stand to benefit from large potential customer base amid buoyant economic growth.
3 year
The fund performed strongly and generated almost double its benchmark returns over the three year period ending June 2010. The strategy to focus on growth stocks yielded superior returns. All sectors added to gains. Notably, solid stock selection in consumer discretionary and financials and the underweight stance in telecommunications and utilities strongly contributed to relative performance. Stock specifically, shares in Chinese online social networking firm Tencent proved rewarding as the company benefited from increased monetisation of services and sticky user base. The holding in Hong Kong based Wing Lung Bank added value after the bank was bought by China Merchants Bank towards the end of 2008.
5-year
The fund performed strongly and outperformed its benchmark over the five year period to June 2010 and in each calendar year since 2005. The exposure to consumer-oriented names including those in the technology space supported gains in 2005. In 2006, I moved to an overweight position in growth sectors which benefit more than proportionately in an expanding economy such as industrials, energy and consumer discretionary. The strategy worked well and generated solid returns over the year. The positive stock selection in financials was an important factor in determining superior returns in 2007 and 2008 when global financial crisis weighed heavily on the stock markets. The shift to an overweight stance towards telecommunications was also a key contributor during the crisis period when risk aversion increased among investors. Incidentally, as economic recovery picked up pace I trimmed the exposure to the more defensive telecommunications sector and enhanced the allocation to consumer discretionary and technology names, which boosted fund performance in 2009."
Dr. Mark Mobius, Fondsmanager des "Templeton Asian Growth A (Ydis) USD" (04.08.2010): "Im laufenden Jahr:
Das 2. Quartal 2010 begann positiv und die Märkte spiegelten einen starken Wirtschaftsaufschwung in den bedeutenden asiatischen Ländern wider. Die Schwäche der europäischen Volkswirtschaften, die Einführung von restriktiven geldpolitischen Maßnahmen in China, insbesondere auf dem Immobilienmarkt, und gesunkene Rohstoffpreise sorgten jedoch in der zweiten Hälfte des Quartals für eine Korrektur auf den globalen Märkten. Ein weiteres kritisches Element war die hohe Zahl der Börsengänge in den Schwellenländern, bei denen allein während des 2. Quartals 34 Mrd. US-Dollar beschafft wurden. Die Gesamtsumme für das erste Halbjahr 2010 beläuft sich somit auf 64 Mrd. US-Dollar und machte mehr als 70% der insgesamt im Jahr 2009 auf diesem Weg beschafften 89 Mrd. US-Dollar aus. (Dealogic, 30. Juni 2010.) Eine Zunahme der Börsengänge hat normalerweise zur Folge, dass dem Kassamarkt Geld entzogen wird und folglich Kurssteigerungen gebremst werden. Unter diesen Rahmenbedingungen schloss der MSCI All Country Asia ex-Japan Index das Quartal in US-Dollar mit einem Minus von 4,86% (+5.09% in EUR). Im Juni kündigte China die Erhöhung der Flexibilität des Renminbi an, während sich Staatschefs aus aller Welt auf dem G20-Gipfel in Kanada auf eine Reduzierung der Staatsschulden und –defizite als oberste Priorität einigten.
Im Quartal bis 30. Juni 2010 verbuchte der Fonds in US-Dollar einen Nettoverlust von 4,45% (+5.54% in EUR). Obwohl die Bestände in den Sektoren zyklische und nichtzyklische Konsumgüter sowie Energie eine positive Auswirkung auf die absolute Performance hatten, wurde dieser Effekt durch bestimmte große verlustbringende Positionen, insbesondere im Material- und Industriesektor. aufgehoben.
Zu den Einzeltiteln, die die absolute Performance begünstigten, gehörten Positionen in indonesischen Geschäftsbanken. Regional leisteten die Positionen des Fonds in Indonesien den bei weitem stärksten Beitrag zur absoluten Performance. Im Berichtszeitraum wies der indonesische Aktienmarkt gemäß dem MSCI Indonesia Index die stärkste Wertentwicklung unter den Schwellenländern aus.
Indes ist die Bevölkerung Indonesiens größer als die Brasiliens oder Russlands, was auf ein großes Potenzial eines dynamischen Verbrauchermarktes schließen lässt. Der inländische Konsum ist rapide gewachsen und macht etwa zwei Drittel der indonesischen Wirtschaft aus (FT Asia-Pacific, 10. September 2009 und Reuters, 15. April 2010).
Die Performance steigerten im Quartal auch bestimmte rohstoffabhängige Unternehmen der Branche Öl, Gas und fossile Brennstoffe im Energiesektor sowie der Baumaterialbranche im Materialsektor. Dazu gehörten vor allem Unternehmen mit Sitz in Indien, Pakistan, Thailand und China. Diese waren gegenüber der Verkaufswelle im Quartal relativ unempfindlicher. Einige von ihnen wurden auch durch besser als erwartete Gewinnmeldungen für das 1. Quartal 2010 gestützt und profitierten zu Beginn des Jahres von steigenden Rohölpreisen.
2009
2009 verzeichneten die asiatischen Märkte nach einem heftigen Einbruch Ende 2008 einen sprunghaften Anstieg. Dieser bescherte dem in US-Dollar. Der Templeton Asian Growth legt um 98, 43 Prozent zu, der MSCI All Country Asia ex-Japan Index lediglich um 68,53% in EUR.
Märkte wie Indien oder Indonesien legten im Berichtsjahr gleich um das Doppelte zu. Der Kurssprung war die Folge vieler Faktoren, vor allem aber des raschen Anwachsens der Geldmenge und der Liquiditätsspritzen von Regierungen in aller Welt zur Verhinderung einer Depression.
Ein weiterer entscheidender Aspekt war im Berichtsjahr, wie die beiden bevölkerungsreichsten Länder der Welt, China und Indien, angesichts der düsteren Prophezeiungen für die Weltwirtschaft in den ersten neun Monaten 2009 mit einem unglaublichen Wachstum des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) von jeweils 8% bzw. 6% vorpreschten. Das heißt nicht, dass es 2009 keine Belastungen gab, doch waren diese rar gesät.
2008
In den 12 Monaten bis zum 31. Dezember 2008 verlor der Fonds netto 60,18% in USD. 2008 war ein für Aktien schwieriges Jahr.
Das Jahr 2008 bildete das Ende eines langen Bullenmarktes an den Emerging Markets, der 2003 begonnen hatte. Nachdem der MSCI Asia ex Japan Index in den letzten 5 Jahren erstaunliche 300% zugelegt hatte, verlor er im Jahr 2008 über 50% in USD.
Das vierte Quartal war wahrscheinlich das schwierigste Quartal des Jahres, sowohl für die Emerging Markets, als auch für die entwickelten Märkte. Unter diesen äußerst schwierigen Umständen erzielten die Beteiligungen des Fonds in beinahe allen Sektoren Verluste für das Gesamtjahr. Die einzige Ausnahme bildete der Sektor Telekom-Dienste, dort generierten die Anlagen des Fonds positive Ergebnisse. Auf Länderebene leistete Thailand den schlechtesten Beitrag zur Wertentwicklung. Die Stimmung der Anleger war nach der eskalierenden politischen Verunsicherung ins Negative umgeschlagen, vor allem in der zweiten Jahreshälfte."
Allan Liu, Fondsmanager des "Fidelity Funds - South East Asia A USD" (06.08.2010): "Over the full period since 2005, the fund has outperformed its benchmark. The strategy to focus on growth stocks yielded healthy returns during 2005, 2006 and 2007. Thereafter, equity markets fell sharply towards the end of 2007 and early 2008 reducing investors’ risk appetite. During the middle of 2008, Allan moved towards more stable cash-generating companies, particularly a number of telecom services and utilities firms, although his long term investment strategy remained intact. These changes aided the fund’s relative performance during the second half of 2008. In 2009, I was timely in positioning the fund to take advantage of the recovery in the region’s economic activity. Subsequently, the fund was able to recover the losses of 2008.
So far this year, the fund has underperformed its benchmark mainly due to the underperformance of certain high conviction holdings in Chinese technology and consumer discretionary sectors, which had supported the fund´s performance in 2009. These include BYD Company and internet services providers such as Tencent Holdings and Sina Corp. I continue to hold these stocks for their strong long term growth prospects. Not holding telecommunications names, most notably China Mobile, eroded value as investors sought defensively positioned names. Conversely, select overweight positions such as Chinese internet search engine Baidu, Indonesian tobacco firm Gudang Garam and Korea’s KIA Motors proved rewarding."
Anna Ho, Fondsmanagerin des "NESTOR Fernost Fonds" (29.07.2010): "Our fund, Nestor Far East, always has a high tracking error to its benchmark, MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan, at around 15%. This will remain the case in the future given our extremely concentration on China, around 80%, and we invest mostly in smaller companies not included in the benchmark. We believe China stock market is in a long term bull run given its strong underlying economy, it will not take long for the fund’s NAV to rise above its previous peak at 2007."
Ben Surtees, Fondsmanager des "Jupiter JGF Asia Pacific L USD" (03.08.2010): "The fund has performed broadly in line with the benchmark MSCI Asia index in terms of year to date and year on year performance to 30th June 2010. Over three and five years, we have outperformed, returning a total of 85.8% in the five years to 30th June 2010. I have a bias toward mid- and small-cap companies, so performance often deviates from that of the benchmark, but overall volatility has been lower. Risk parameters are constant, irrespective of the year. We are bound by a benchmark and we have internal risk committees and management controls in place to ensure that company-wide objectives are met."
Joseph Tse, Fondsmanager des "Fidelity Funds - Asian Special Sits A" (06.08.2010): "Year-to-date:
The fund underperformed its benchmark over the year-to-30 June 2010 period. The positioning in utilities and limited exposure to telecommunications detracted from performance as the sectors found investor interest due to their steady stream of income in view of a slowing economic growth. Selected holdings in financials proved unfavourable to returns. These were, however, partially countered by the positive stock selection in the consumer discretionary space.
The information technology exposure generated mixed returns. Social networking internet portal Tencent detracted as investors took profits after its first quarter earnings exceeded consensus estimates. I continue to hold the stock as I believe increased monetisation of services and sticky user base should bode well for the company. Overall, the exposure to the weak performing sector was largely offset by positive stock selection. The overweight holding in global merchandise trader and distributor Li & Fung proved rewarding after key contract wins at the company along with improved earnings outlook. A non-benchmark position in its subsidiary Trinity which deals with luxury men’s fashion retail was the top performing stock over the period.
3 year
The fund generated positive returns and significantly outperformed its benchmark, which retreated over the 3-year period ending June 2010. The strategy to focus on growth stocks yielded superior returns. Solid security selection in consumer discretionary stocks, exposure to technology names and underweight stance towards telecommunications supported gains over the period. Automobile companies along with others that benefit from rising consumerism in China including Tencent, and non-benchmark positions in travel services provider Ctrip.com and luxury men’s fashion retailer Trinity boosted performance. Conversely, financials stocks weighed upon returns and positioning in utilities marginally detracted from gains.
5 year
The fund generated significant returns and noticeably outperformed its benchmark over the 5-year period ending June 2010. With the exception of 2009, the fund outperformed the benchmark in each calendar year since 2005.
The underweight stance in technology stocks proved beneficial to relative returns in the pre-crisis period. Thereafter, equity markets fell sharply towards the end of 2007 and early 2008 reducing investors’ risk appetite. I moved to an overweight position in the sector as valuations became attractive and as global trade and corporate spending focus changed during the global financial crisis. The change in positioning proved favourable and technology exposure contributed significantly during the crisis and following period. Financials, which contributed strongly in the pre-crisis period, succumbed to concerns in the global capital markets and detracted from performance in the following period.
The exposure to consumer discretionary stocks weighed upon relative performance in 2005 and 2006, but I continued to hold the stocks due to my conviction in growth potential in consumer spending in Asia which has started to unfold. Subsequently, the sector was largely responsible for significant positive returns recently."
Frage 5:
e-fundresearch: "Wie ist Ihr genereller Marktausblick für Aktien aus der Region Asien ex Japan in den kommenden 12 Monaten? Wo ergeben sich Chancen und wo liegen die Risiken?"
Yit-Mee Cheah, Portfoliomanagerin des "UBS (Lux) Eq Fd - Asia Opportunity (USD) P-acc" (04.08.2010): "Near term outlook may remain somewhat challenging as China slows down in response to easing stimulus while the major developed economies follow an uneven recovery path. However, schizophrenic markets would present opportunities to be positioned. The structural growth drivers in Asia remain intact, as demographics and urbanisation are multi-year drivers."
David Urquhart, Fondsmanager des "Fidelity Inst South East Asia Acc" (06.08.2010): "Most of the economies in Asia ex Japan have experienced a “V-shaped” recovery. While some of this recovery reflects the early stages of re-stocking of durable goods around the globe, it also reflects strong demand from within the region. In Asia ex Japan and China, industrial production is now a little above its previous peak. In China it surpassed the 2008 peak in the middle of last year and kept rising, while in India it never really fell. Despite the slow growth of Asia’s traditional export destinations – North America, Europe, and Japan – trade in the region has rebounded remarkably strongly after a precipitous fall in 2008. A large part of this rebound has been intra-region exports of final products. Demand within the Asian region seems to be playing a bigger role in this upswing. Asian exports to the US and Europe are also recovering.
At some stage during 2010 it is expected that some economies in Asia will experience a moderation in the pace of growth. The current pace of growth cannot be maintained without problems arising (problems would include inflation and asset bubbles). Chinese authorities have been working to take inflationary pressures out of key sectors in their economy by slowing bank lending, and policies to contain housing prices. Similarly we have seen policy makers in Australia, India, Korea, and Taiwan move to raise interest rates from what have been very low levels.
It is becoming apparent that the Asian region is becoming large enough that now has an increasingly important impact on the global economy – but especially on those countries within Asia. China now has the second largest economy in the world, having leapt past both Germany and Japan in the last few years. Increasingly what Asian policymakers are doing and saying will increasingly matter. China appears to have had some success in containing inflationary forces in the economy, and because of this there are some indications that anti-inflationary policies will ease. Equity markets would take confirmation of this as very positive news."
Dr. Mark Mobius, Fondsmanager des "Templeton Asian Growth A (Ydis) USD" (04.08.2010): "Aus langfristiger Perspektive bietet Asien unseres Erachtens Anlegern immer noch attraktive Möglichkeiten. Viele asiatische Länder sind nach wie vor fundamental stark und verfügen über ein hohes Wachstum und, im Vergleich zu den Industrieländern, größere Devisenreserven. Viele asiatische Länder verzeichneten im 1. Quartal 2010 ein starkes BIP-Wachstum, das von kräftiger Inlandsnachfrage und der Einführung von staatlichen Anreizmaßnahmen getragen wurde. Gemäß dem Internationalen Währungsfonds werden die Schwellenländer Asiens 2010 voraussichtlich um 9,2% wachsen, die Industrieländer dagegen um 2,6%. (Internationaler Währungsfonds, World Economic Outlook, 7. Juli 2010).
Eine Reihe von Schwellenländern haben nach vergangenen Krisen (wie die Finanzkrise in Asien im Jahr 1997) ihre Devisenreserven aufgestockt, so dass diese jetzt diejenigen der Industrieländer übersteigen. Dieser beachtliche Reservenbestand ermöglicht den Schwellenländern, externe finanzielle Schocks zu verkraften.
Für eine Investition in viele asiatische Länder sprechen auch günstige Regierungspolitiken, niedrigere Verschuldungsquoten, geringe Inflation, niedrige Zinsen und strukturelle Verbesserungen. Außerdem erkennen wir eine Veränderung bei der Wahrnehmung von Risiken. Die Credit Default Swaps (CDS) vieler Schwellenländer notierten in letzter Zeit mit niedrigeren Spreads als die mancher europäischer Industrieländer. Der Renditeabstand zwischen Staatsanleihen aus Schwellenländern und US-Schatzpapieren hat sich drastisch verringert, von rund 865 Basispunkten im Oktober 2008 auf 258 Basispunkte im April 2010 (Financial Times/JP Morgan, 29. April 2010)
Die rasanten Entwicklungen in Asien könnten es den dortigen Märkten ermöglichen, im globalen Anlageuniversum noch mehr Aufmerksamkeit auf sich zu ziehen. Laut MSCI waren 2009 die Portfolios der Anleger im Durchschnitt etwa zu 3-8% in Schwellenländer investiert, obwohl die Schwellenmärkte etwa 30% der globalen Marktkapitalisierung ausmachten. (MSCI, Pensions & Investments, Stand 6. Jan. 2010) Aufgrund dieser Differenz dürfte die potenzielle Nachfrage nach Schwellenländerinvestitionen unserer Meinung nach erheblich sein. In den nächsten zehn Jahren könnte durchaus mehr Kapital nach Asien gelenkt werden, wenn die Investoren erkennen, dass sie dort im Vergleich zu den Industrieländern zu vernünftigen Preisen bei im Verhältnis niedrigen Risiken werthaltige Titel erwerben können."
Allan Liu, Fondsmanager des "Fidelity Funds - South East Asia A USD" (06.08.2010): "Far East ex Japan region’s long term economic fundamentals remains strong. The region’s GDP growth forecasts are strong relative of the rest of the world. The pick-up in economic conditions would be supported by a growing population that is likely to consume more and add to the region’s labour force. A healthy population growth, together with low household debt levels and high savings rate makes Asia an attractive long-term investment destination. Equity valuations have become more compelling after the recent correction, given that the earnings growth is expected to remain strong in coming years. However, investors are concerned about sovereign debt problems in Europe and a possible tightening of monetary policies in Asia as economic growth remains strong and inflationary pressures build up. While there could be short term pull backs as the global economy has not yet fully recovered from one of the worst crises in history, the secular growth trend should lead the region on a healthy growth path. There is much disparity within the region as some sectors and stocks have rallied strongly while others have lagged. Consequently, bottom-up stock selection is expected to be more important in the year ahead compared to 2009."
Anna Ho, Fondsmanagerin des "NESTOR Fernost Fonds" (29.07.2010): "The largest component of Asia ex Japan equities are China (including Hong Kong) and Australia, and they have very high correlation since China become the largest consumer of commodities in the region. I believe the next up trend in Australia’s stock market may be less driven by commodities but by services, including tourism, healthcare and education, I think Australia is very appealing to Chinese middle class as an English speaking country for education, as a tourist destination, and as a supplier of high end healthcare services. India will also expand in its weighting in the benchmark given its strong economic growth. The rest of Asia will benefit from China’s development at different time and may be to a less degree in the near future, some of them are still subject to the threat of China taking over their businesses as China climbs the value added ladder in manufacturing."
Ben Surtees, Fondsmanager des "Jupiter JGF Asia Pacific L USD" (03.08.2010): "Leading indicators of growth in Asia have slowed recently, suggesting that the region is entering a more “normalised” economic environment. We feel that this is to be expected, given the extraordinary rebound experienced in Asia through the latter part of 2009 and the first quarter of 2010. Across the region, strong growth characteristics are in place to support medium-term economic prosperity, however in the short term we expect markets to be finely balanced between stronger economic data and bouts of fear over rising inflation and subsequent policy tightening measures."
Jupiter Unit Trust Managers Limited (JUTM) and Jupiter Asset Management Limited (JAM) are both authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and their registered address is 1 Grosvenor Place London SW1X 7JJ. They are both subsidiaries of Jupiter Investment Management Group Limited and the group is collectively known as "Jupiter”. The above commentary represents the views of the Fund Manager at the time of preparation and may be subject to change and this is particularly likely during periods of rapidly changing market circumstances. Their views are not necessarily those of Jupiter and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of any information provided but no assurances or warranties are given.Joseph Tse, Fondsmanager des "Fidelity Funds - Asian Special Sits A" (06.08.2010): "I remain confident that APxJ equities can continue to deliver good performance on a long term basis. Equity valuations have become more compelling after the recent correction, given that the earnings growth is expected to remain strong in coming years. While concerns about sovereign debt problems in Europe and reversion to less loose monetary policies in China could hurt investor sentiment, I am of the view that those who stay invested will be rewarded handsomely over the long term."
Alle Daten per 23.07.2010 in Euro:
