e-fundresearch: "Welche fundamentalen Faktoren sind Ihrer Meinung nach derzeit am wichtigsten für die Einschätzung des IT-Sektors?"
Mattia Nocera, Managing Director & CIO, "Vitruvius Growth Opportunities B USD" (15.09.2010): "We are witnessing secular growth trends in the technology space deriving from new products and technology adoption. The key is to understand those companies that will remain or become the leaders in each space. Moreover large parts of the technology sector have clear cyclical characteristics, hence understanding inventory cycles and market expectations is instrumental in profiting from more tactical and short term investment opportunities."
Stuart O’Gorman und Ian Warmerdam, Fondsmanager des "Henderson HF Global Technology A2 USD" (14.09.2010): "There are a number of fundamental factors which are important in evaluating the technology sector but we believe the market structure and the prevailing barriers to entry are the most important. Technology is a market in which the winner takes most, and so these barriers to entry are important for companies to protect that leading position.
For example, a barrier to entry could in the form of intellectual property. We believe that it is crucial for companies to appreciate how they can retain their barriers to entry as the market progresses. An example could be in car personal navigation devices (such as TomTom) as their barrier to entry became eroded by competition from other data sources such as smartphones carrying this information."
JP Scandalios, Fondsmanager des "Franklin Technology A (acc) USD" (10.09.2010): "US-Wertpapiere hatten trotz Anzeichen eines nachlassenden Verbrauchervertrauens und einer rückläufigen Industrieproduktion ihren besten Monat seit einem Jahr. Kapitalwerte hatten infolge optimistischer Unternehmensgewinne und Prognosen nach einer überwiegend erfolgreichen Ertragssaison im zweiten Quartal 2010 einen starken Anstieg zu verzeichnen. Aktien dagegen durchliefen Kursschwankungen, denn Händler wechselten zwischen Käufen infolge starker Ertragsberichte und Verkäufen infolge schwacher Wirtschaftsdaten sowie der zwiespältigen Marktreaktion auf den letzten BIP-Bericht der Regierung. Im ersten gewinnbringenden Monat seit April rentierten der S&P 500 Index, der Dow Jones Industrial Average und der Nasdaq Composite Index im Juli 7,01%, 7,23% bzw. 6,94%. Alle 10 Sektorgruppen des S&P 500 stiegen im Wert, allen voran Materialien, Industriewerte, Telekommunikationsdienste und Energie."
Jeroen Brand, Portfolio Manager "ING (L) Invest New Technology Leaders P Cap" (16.09.2010): "Technology that drives change in the way we communicate (Apple, Facebook, Skype) and do business (Google, Autonomy).
Technology that drives efficiency/cost savings for companies (cloud computing, virtualization of desktops/applications)."
Karsten Stroh, Head of Portfoliomanager, "JPM Europe Technology A Dist EUR" (14.09.2010): "Our disciplined and transparent investment process seeks out the technology companies offering the most attractive value and growth characteristics. The factors that we consistently look at are P/E ratios, earnings growth, earnings momentum and price momentum."
e-fundresearch: "Welche wichtigen Trends im IT Sektor beobachten Sie aktuell?"
Mattia Nocera, Managing Director & CIO, "Vitruvius Growth Opportunities B USD" (15.09.2010): "A key trend is the ever increasing data bandwidth requirements as more sophisticated devices such as smartphones gain penetration and data usage rises, which will continue to benefit infrastructure providers amongst others. Additionally many technology companies have exhibited strong cash generation and this is likely to be increasingly put to work, via share buybacks and acquisitions, which we have increasingly been witnessing. Cloud computing, for example, is an area that remains quite diversified, with a number of companies ripe for consolidation – and additionally is a key growth trend in its own right.
On a more cyclical basis, corporate IT spending has passed through a depressed phase, with many projects having been put on hold in 2008. A recovery is now being encouraged by products such as Windows 7, which has become more established, and more radical developments such as the iPad which is taking increasing share of the notebook market, benefitting a range of specific companies."
Stuart O’Gorman und Ian Warmerdam, Fondsmanager des "Henderson HF Global Technology A2 USD" (14.09.2010): "A strong recent trend has been the Internet. We believe we are still in the early stages of how this relatively new medium is disrupting old business models and creating new business opportunity. For example, e-commerce and online advertising are two ways in which the Internet creates investment opportunities.
As regards e-commerce, despite the enormous success of companies such as Amazon, the opportunity has barely been scratched. Even in the US, one of the more mature Internet markets, e-commerce as a percentage of all retail spend is only 4%*. We strongly believe this percentage will increase significantly over time.
As for online advertising, we are spending ever more of our time online. Indeed, in Western countries we now spend upwards of 32% of our total media time online (versus, for example, watching television). However, Internet advertising spending, even in more mature geographies such as the US, tends to account for a much smaller percentage of the total media spend**. This is a gap which should, in our opinion, close over time. What’s more, the amount of time we spend online continues to increase. As a result we have a very positive view on the long-term trend for online advertising.
Another trend which has garnered a lot of attention recently is cloud computing. This is where resources are shared over the internet, with software and information provided to computers and other devices on demand, meaning technology users do not have to own the hardware. Strong performers this year-to-date within the technology sector have been those companies exposed to this trend."
*Bernstein
**JP Morgan, Nielsen Media Research Custom Survey 2009-15% of total advertising spend on Internet
JP Scandalios, Fondsmanager des "Franklin Technology A (acc) USD" (10.09.2010): "Trotz anhaltender wirtschaftlicher Unsicherheit scheint der Technologiesektor sowohl in den Verbraucher- als auch in den Geschäftsbereichen gute Fortschritte zu machen. Verbraucher kaufen jetzt die neuesten Tablet Readers und Smartphones und Unternehmen haben begonnen, die lange hinausgeschobenen Computerhochrüstungen zu implementieren. Die zunehmende Bedeutung des Internets spielt eine signifikante Rolle bei diesem Drang nach vorn in den Industrieländern, während in den Schwellenmärkten die langsam fortschreitende Technologiesättigung und größere Verbraucherkaufkraft Gelegenheiten schafft. Wir sind der Ansicht, dass diese Trends zusammen mit den derzeit niedrigen Bewertungen vieler hochwertiger Technologieaktien potenziell günstige langfristige Gelegenheiten für Investoren bieten."
Jeroen Brand, Portfolio Manager "ING (L) Invest New Technology Leaders P Cap" (16.09.2010): "Move towards cloud computing. Corporate refresh of PC´s after not spending on this for a couple of years. Energy efficiency: use of LED´s for general lighting taking off, demand for wind energy, smart electricity grid. Smartphone penetration going up rapidly. The recent launch of tablet PC´s like the iPad."
Karsten Stroh, Head of Portfoliomanager, "JPM Europe Technology A Dist EUR" (14.09.2010): "The strong structural growth potential of the technology sector is driven by a broad array of technological innovations, including:
• Smartphones (Blackberry, iPhone etc): experiencing the fastest new device growth in history
• LED technology: penetration in the television market expected to rise from 2% in 2009 to 70% by 2012; huge potential in both indoor and outdoor lighting
• Software developments: Windows 7 is the fastest-selling operating system ever. Its increased memory requirements and pent-up demand from cost-constrained corporates are driving a dramatic increase in PC shipments
• Smartcards: benefiting as chip-and-pin becomes compulsory around the world, contactless payment technologies become more prevalent and the ePassport becomes the global standard. Over five billion smartcards were shipped in 2009
• Fuel cells: a clean and reliable source of energy with applications ranging from cars and buses through to notebook computers. Demand is forecast to triple by 2013"
Frage 3
e-fundresearch: "Welche Marktsegmente innerhalb des IT Sektors werden derzeit über- und untergewichtet? Warum?"
Mattia Nocera, Managing Director & CIO, "Vitruvius Growth Opportunities B USD" (15.09.2010): "Relative to the Vitruvius Growth Opportunities’ reference index, the S&P North American Tech index, the portfolio is currently most overweight the internet sector, and most underweight computer hardware and semiconductors. The internet sector is principally a play on the growth of ‘cloud computing’ where opportunities are widespread in the ongoing virtualisation of applications and equipment, while computer hardware is, to generalise, a loser in this trend and has been a quite consistent underweight in recent months, also on concern about weak consumer demand. The semiconductors weighting has recently been reduced on concerns about end demand, after the re-building of inventories in the supply chain – holdings are now focused on companies with niche products, taking market share."
Stuart O’Gorman und Ian Warmerdam, Fondsmanager des "Henderson HF Global Technology A2 USD" (14.09.2010): "We are currently overweight the Internet sector. We believe the trend in e-commerce, and online advertising as outlined above will continue. The Internet sector has been a strong contributor to the performance of the fund this year against the index. We are also overweight the software sector because we like the recurring nature of the revenues which is important in uncertain economic climates. We are underweight the more cyclical sectors, such as semiconductors and electronic equipment and instruments."
JP Scandalios, Fondsmanager des "Franklin Technology A (acc) USD" (10.09.2010): "Der Fonds investiert überwiegend in den Informationstechnologiesektor, auf den am 30. Juni 2010 rund 84% des Portfolios entfielen. Innerhalb dieses Sektors war der Fonds nahezu gleichmäßig zwischen Unternehmen aus den Branchen Technologie-Hardware und -ausrüstung sowie Software und Dienstleistungen aufgeteilt (30%). Außerdem stammten etwa 25% der Portfoliowerte aus der Halbleiterbranche des Informationstechnologiesektors. Die nächstgrößten Sektorgewichtungen waren zyklische Konsumgüter (am 30. Juni 2010 ca. 6% des Portfolios), gefolgt von Telekommunikationsdienstleistungen (5%), Gesundheitswesen (2%) und Industrie (3%). Der Fonds investiert überwiegend in US-Unternehmen.
Das Engagement des Fonds in der Branche Computer und Computerperipherie profitierte von Positionen in Netezza, einem Unternehmen, das nicht in der Benchmark vertreten ist, und Apple. Netezza, ein Anbieter von Data-Warehousing-Lösungen, vermeldete aufgrund höherer Umsätze im ersten Quartal des Geschäftsjahres einen Gewinn. Darüber hinaus erwartet das Unternehmen für 2010 eine Steigerung der Nachfrage nach seinen Datensicherungsdienstleistungen. Die Kernposition des Fonds in Apple wirkte sich im Quartal ebenfalls positiv auf das relative Ergebnis aus. Die rege Nachfrage nach dem Tablet-PC iPad in den USA und die zu erwartende Markteinführung des iPhone der nächsten Gene-ration kamen der Aktie zugute.
Zu den Einzelbeständen, die im Quartal im Vergleich zur Benchmark überdurchschnittlich abschnitten, gehörten der Softwarehersteller Sybase und die Kundenmarketingfirma GSI Commerce. Die Aktie von Sybase stieg, nachdem die Akquisition des Unternehmens durch den deutschen Softwarehersteller SAP bekannt wurde, der einen Aufschlag auf die Aktie bot. GSI Commerce vermeldete für das erste Quartal Gewinne, die die Erwartungen übertrafen, wovon die Aktie profitierte. Der Anbieter von Audio und Videokonferenzen, Polycom, der nicht im Index vertreten ist, steigerte im Quartal ebenfalls die relative Performance."
Jeroen Brand, Portfolio Manager "ING (L) Invest New Technology Leaders P Cap" (16.09.2010): "Energy efficiency related stocks like Aixtron/Veeco (LED´s) and Hansen/Vestas (wind energy).
Cloud computing related stocks like NetApp (storage), Cisco (network equipment).
Smartphone related stocks like Quallcomm (chips), Apple (iPhone/iPad)."
Karsten Stroh, Head of Portfoliomanager, "JPM Europe Technology A Dist EUR" (14.09.2010): "As of Aug 31, 2010 we are underweight the IT Hardware and IT Software & Services sectors and overweight Electronic & Electrical equipment, Telecomunications and Media.
All our sector weights are built bottom up from our rigorous value and growth analysis of single stocks."
Frage 4
e-fundresearch: "Bitte kommentieren Sie die Performance- und Risikokennzahlen Ihres Fonds im laufenden Jahr und in den letzten 3 bzw. 5 Jahren. "
Mattia Nocera, Managing Director & CIO, "Vitruvius Growth Opportunities B USD" (15.09.2010): "Vitruvius Growth Opportunities fell nearly 2% less than the reference index in 2010 to the end of August (see table) with a lower volatility, principally as a result of maintaining an elevated cash weighting and also some index put options – a result of a cautious view on the broad market, despite a positive view on technology. Outperformance over the past 3 year and 5 year periods has been considerable, stemming primarily from the ability of limiting losses during significant market drawdowns, while still being able to capture upside through good stock and sector selection. The volatility of the portfolio was notably lower than the reference index over these periods as well."
Stuart O’Gorman und Ian Warmerdam, Fondsmanager des "Henderson HF Global Technology A2 USD" (14.09.2010): "The fund has outperformed the benchmark over 1, 3 and 5years. The Internet and Communications Equipment sectors have been key contributors to this outperformance over all time periods.
Regarding the risk statistics, the information ratio and the alpha of the fund has been consistently greater than the peer group over all time periods. Also over each of the 1, 3 and 5 year time periods; the beta of the fund has been less than 1."
JP Scandalios, Fondsmanager des "Franklin Technology A (acc) USD" (10.09.2010): "Der Franklin Technology Fund rentierte für den Monat bis 31. Juli 2010 netto 6,86% (in US-Dollar) und 0,26% in Euro, was im Vergleich zum BofA Merrill Lynch 100 Technology Index zu sehen ist, der ebenfalls in US-Dollar 7,93% (1,26% in Euro) verbuchte. Seit Jahresbeginn liegt der Fonds mit einer Rendite von 0,51% in US-Dollar (10,37% in Euro) gegenüber -1,16% in US-Dollar (8,55% in Euro) für den Index über seiner Benchmark. Auch die langfristige relative Wertentwicklung des Fonds war im Vergleich zum Index für die ein-, zwei-, drei-, fünf- und zehnjährigen Perioden seit Auflegung bis zum 31. Juli 2010 besser."
Jeroen Brand, Portfolio Manager "ING (L) Invest New Technology Leaders P Cap" (16.09.2010): "The fund has shown a very strong performance thanks to the focus on structural, long term themes in IT. Over the last year, 3 and five years the fund significantly outperformed the IT sector as can be seen in the table below:
Currently the tracking error of the fund is around 7% and beta is slightly higher than 1 compared to the MSCI IT index. Active share is 77%."
Karsten Stroh, Head of Portfoliomanager, "JPM Europe Technology A Dist EUR" (14.09.2010): "Relative performance (calculated geometrically), Tracking Error and corresponding Information ratios as of the end of August look like this:
This shows that the fund is achieving a very significant outperformance under a controlled risk management process over every single period. In fact, the fund has not underperformed its benchmark in any calendar year since 2003."
Frage 5
e-fundresearch: "Wo liegen mögliche Risiken für den IT Sektor?"
Mattia Nocera, Managing Director & CIO, "Vitruvius Growth Opportunities B USD" (15.09.2010): "The technology sector itself continues to look quite attractive with strong cash generation and reasonable valuations in aggregate, and some interesting pockets of innovation / new developing markets. Hence the main risks are exogenous, from the broader economy, which is the key factor keeping the portfolio under-invested currently."
Stuart O’Gorman und Ian Warmerdam, Fondsmanager des "Henderson HF Global Technology A2 USD" (14.09.2010): "In our view, the greatest risk to the tech sector in the next 1-5 years is the economy.
We are more cautious about the economy now than we were six months ago. This is because of the potential headwinds of fiscal retrenchment, the end of key stimulus programmes, inflation in emerging markets and the lack of jobs growth.
In the case of a double-dip, the semiconductor sector in particular would be badly hit through inventory unwind and the events of 2007/08 could be repeated.
On the other side of the coin, if the economy continues to recover there is the risk that the technology sector gets ahead of itself – in terms of valuation, or in over optimistic forecasting. Additionally, if demand recovers and the supply of various technology components lags, there is the risk of double ordering – creating inventory issues across the food chain which could ultimately create a downturn led by inventory destocking.
In summary, if the market swings markedly in one direction or another, then the technology sector could be affected more than most. However, we are keen to stress that technology has improved defensive qualities with the 3 yr beta of the sector is still less than 1. The sector is much better positioned than in the past to weather economic storms with historically low valuations (in particular amongst large cap technology stocks) and strong balance sheets."
JP Scandalios, Fondsmanager des "Franklin Technology A (acc) USD" (10.09.2010): "Kurzfristig sind die Aussichten unsicherer geworden, da Technologieinvestoren mit saisonbedingt rückläufiger Logistikkettennachfrage kämpfen, die für diese Jahreszeit normal ist, aber auch mit der Staatsschuldenkrise in der Eurozone, die die globale Nachfrage stärker dämpfen könnte.
Auf lange Sicht herrscht weiter zuverlässig Rückenwind. Wir gehen jedoch davon aus, dass es nach wie vor langfristige Wachstumsbereiche gibt, die im Jahr 2010 profitieren könnten – wie Medizintechnik, Industrieautomation und Energieeffizienzprogramme, um nur ein paar zu nennen."
Jeroen Brand, Portfolio Manager "ING (L) Invest New Technology Leaders P Cap" (16.09.2010):
"-slowing down of economy
-overcapacity in the supply-chain (esp semi-conductors)
-slowing down of corporate spending on IT."
Karsten Stroh, Head of Portfoliomanager, "JPM Europe Technology A Dist EUR" (14.09.2010): "One of the most significant risks is a possible double dip. Whilst this is not our core scenario (we do expect a slowdown of growth but not a renewed recession) it would affect the IT sector as most likely companies would once more limit their spending and therefore the current replacement cycle would probably slow down quite significantly."
Alle Daten per 06.09.2010 in Euro:
