Paul Chesson, Fondsmanager des "Invesco Japanese Equity Core A" (24.09.2010): "We anticipate gradual and modest improvement in the domestic economy, with growth among Japan’s key trading partners maintaining its stronger upward trend. With Asia accounting for more than 50% of Japan’s exports, and the important US market also continuing its recovery, we expect the external environment to remain supportive. In our view, this export-led recovery will continue to feed through into the domestic economy, helping to maintain and diversify the drivers of Japan’s expansion."
Mag. Nicole Strebinger, Senior Fundmanager, "Meinl Japan Trend" (20.09.2010): "Trotz vieler Probleme sehe ich auch jede Menge Gründe für einen optimistischen Ausblick für die japanische Wirtschaft. Die japanische Konjunktur, die extrem exportorientiert ist, hat zuletzt stark unter dem starken Yen gelitten. Die jüngsten Maßnahmen der Bank of Japan sind bereits heiß ersehnt worden. Davon sollten nicht nur die Exportunternehmen Japans sondern Japans Wirtschaft an sich profitieren.
Ian Burden, Fondsmanager, "Threadneedle (Lux)-Japanese Equities AJ" (15.09.2010): "Japan remains an industrial economy dependant on exports to generate economic growth. Traditionally export led growth has led back into the domestic economy via employment and wage growth, consumption and capex. These linkages remain critical, although over the last 20 years Japanese companies have become multi national producers to reduce costs and remain competitive.
As a result Japan´s economic outlook remains subject to the outlook for global growth, given that negative demographics (ageing population) suggests a shrinking domestic market. However Japan´s increasing emphasis and development of emerging markets in general, and Asia in particular, is underappreciated. 25% of Japan´s exports now go to China. This represents a massive repositioning towards economies growing strongly, but critically with fast growth also likely in the future. Autos is a good example in China of potential market growth for Japanese companies, with explosive growth in the middle class.
The strength of the Yen has been a major constraint on Japanese corporate performance in 2010, in terms of profits growth. Intervention has been seen over the last 24 hours, and its success will be critical in sustaining growth. In addition a "soft landing " in China, together with the avoidance of "double dip" scenarios in developed economies will remain critical for prospects."
Michele Malingamba, Fondsmanager, "BSI-Multinippon A" (22.09.2010): "We expect the actual monetary and fiscal policy shoud help the Japanese economy to grow roughly 2% during the current fiscal year."
e-fundresearch: "Welche volkswirtschaftlichen Faktoren beeinflussen derzeit den japanischen Aktienmarkt am meisten?"
Ronald Slattery, Fondsmanager, "Fidelity Funds - Japan Advantage A JPY" (22.09.2010): "The yen is only one of two major forces at work driving Japanese equity returns over the last decade or so. Global equity markets (particularly the US) are the other major force. The Japanese market in US dollar terms moves with the US market. We can see this phenomenon again this year with the S&P up by 0.9%* and the TOPIX up by 1.1%* in US dollar terms." (Data as of 17 September, 2010)
June-Yon Kim, Fondsmanager, "FAST - Japan A JPY Acc" (22.09.2010): "The equity market continues to be very sensitive to movements in the yen along with continued expectations of deflation. Overall, export growth will continue to be an important factor in determining earnings growth."
Paul Chesson, Fondsmanager des "Invesco Japanese Equity Core A" (24.09.2010): "The Japanese equity market is influenced to a greater or lesser degree by all economic factors, but given the importance of exports to Japan the equity market is clearly sensitive to performance in this segment of the economy. As a consequence, the health of the global economy is a key factor, as is the level of the yen, which we have seen recently with the government’s decision to intervene in the currency markets. Inflation is another important issue, as Japan has been struggling with deflation for a long time and it remains a high profile economic and political topic for the Bank of Japan and the DPJ. However, in our view valuations in the Japanese market already factor in a very tough economic background, one which we believe is overly pessimistic, leaving the potential for positive surprises should the economy continue its gradual improvement."
Mag. Nicole Strebinger, Senior Fundmanager, "Meinl Japan Trend" (20.09.2010): "Neben den jüngsten Währungsmaßnahmen, die besonders Exporteure freuen dürfte, sorgen auch diverse fiskalpolitische Entscheidungen für notwendige Stimuli. Darüberhinaus sorgt die Wiederwahl des japanischen Premierministers Naoto Kan für die notwendige Stabilität in der japanischen Politik. Er hatte die Gunst seiner Wähler verspielt als er sich für eine Erhöhung der Mehrwertsteuer ausgesprochen hatte. Eine von vielen Maßnahmen, die Japans Wirtschaft angesichts der hohen Staatsverschuldung dringend notwendig hat. Außerdem kämpft Japan immert noch mit Deflation und einer Überalterung der Gesellschaft.Die jüngsten Wirtschaftsdaten wie zum Beispiel das BIP-Wachstum und die Arbeitsmarktzahlen haben sich aber zuletzt verbessert."
Michele Malingamba, Fondsmanager, "BSI-Multinippon A" (22.09.2010): "Right now, the Yen´s level and the fiscal policy. Clearly the Yen has an impact on the export sector. The fiscal policy could set the new shape of the yield curve and therefore an reassessment of the expectation for capital expenditure and inflation."
e-fundresearch: "Wie schätzen Sie die Gewinnentwicklung der japanischen Unternehmen in den nächsten 12-18 Monaten ein und wie beurteilen Sie die aktuellen Bewertungen (P/B, P/E)?"
Ronald Slattery, Fondsmanager, "Fidelity Funds - Japan Advantage A JPY" (22.09.2010): "Although the recent first-quarter results season underscored a solid improvement in earnings momentum, visibility for the second half of fiscal 2010 (ending March 2011) and beyond remain poor due to concerns over global economic slowdown and yen appreciation.
History has shown time and again that bear markets crisis throw up wonderful opportunities to buy some excellent companies at severely distressed levels. Currently the entire Japanese market is trading below its book value. It has fallen several standard deviations below its normalized average. Therefore, opportunities are abundant across the board."
June-Yon Kim, Fondsmanager, "FAST - Japan A JPY Acc" (22.09.2010): "I do not forecast overall profit growth for Japanese corporates. However, for a number of holdings within FAST Japan, I expect high single digit/low double-digit earnings growth over the next 12 months. On most metrics, valuations are close to ten- to 20-year lows. Furthermore, cyclically adjusted valuations are extremely attractive, as is sector relative valuations as compared to other regions of the world."
Paul Chesson, Fondsmanager des "Invesco Japanese Equity Core A" (24.09.2010): "We believe that corporate Japan has the potential to deliver very strong profit growth. For example, Nomura are expecting profit growth of more than 55% (ex-financials) in the current fiscal year. This is a similar level of growth to that seen in 2002, when sales growth was negligible. Having cut costs and increased efficiency more aggressively than in the previous recovery, and with forecast sales growth of over 5%, we believe that this kind of profit recovery is achievable and could potentially be exceeded. Widespread worries about the sustainability of the global recovery have driven Japanese equities back to levels where they are trading, in aggregate, at or marginally below the value of their assets, hence they are very attractively valued in price to book terms, relative to other world markets and also relative to history. Price to earnings metrics are also compelling when factoring in the profit growth expected this year, which would again leave Japanese stocks trading at a discount to historic averages."
Mag. Nicole Strebinger, Senior Fundmanager, "Meinl Japan Trend" (20.09.2010): "Die jüngsten Quartalsergebnisse bestätigten auch in Japan den positiven Trend. Die japanischen Unternehmen haben einen sehr geringen Verschuldungsgrad und damit eine sehr gesunde Basis. Während das Kurs Gewinn Verhältnis wenig vielversprechend aussieht, sind sowohl Kurs Buchwert als auch Kurs Cashflow Verhältnis immer noch sehr attraktiv zu bewerten."
Ian Burden, Fondsmanager, "Threadneedle (Lux)-Japanese Equities AJ" (15.09.2010): "Japan remains an economy highly geared to global industrial production. As a result, in aggregate the market (Topix) made a loss for the (fiscal) year to march 2009. We expect a strong recovery to march 2011, with the market on a prospective price earnings ratio around 13 times, a book value of 1 times and a dividend yield of 1.95%."
Michele Malingamba, Fondsmanager, "BSI-Multinippon A" (22.09.2010): "At this point in time it´s fair to assume a 10-15% earnings growth over the next 12 months with a price to book ratio of 1-1.1"
e-fundresearch: "Auf welcher Grundlage erfolgt die Titelselektion für Japan Aktienfonds?"
Ronald Slattery, Fondsmanager, "Fidelity Funds - Japan Advantage A JPY" (22.09.2010): "I focus on companies that are cheap on normalized PER and/or PBR adjusted for unrealized gains/losses. My stock selection places more emphasis on valuation than catalysts for changes or growth drivers, and investment decisions are driven by target prices I set for each stock based on the two key valuation metrics I mentioned earlier.
June-Yon Kim, Fondsmanager, "FAST - Japan A JPY Acc" (22.09.2010): "Blend of value and growth—different stocks through a different lens:
- Look for companies which are trading at a significant discount to their longer term relative valuation on non-earnings based measurement (value perspective).
- Look for companies where expected growth is significantly higher than market implied growth (growth perspective).
- Use technical analysis to look for attractive entry and exit points.
The fund has access to additional alpha sources that are not available to traditional long only investors. I am able to profit from negative views on stocks and increase exposure to my high conviction buy ideas through the use of long and short extensions. I can also use derivatives for hedging to reduce volatility, enhance yield and in some cases reduce downside risk."
Paul Chesson, Fondsmanager des "Invesco Japanese Equity Core A" (24.09.2010): "There are a number of factors that determine whether a stock is selected for our funds. Valuation is a key element of our investment process as in our view even the best companies can potentially be poor investments if their valuation is too expensive. Liquidity is also an important issue because although we have a long-term approach we still need to be satisfied that our ability to trade a stock is not compromised. We undertake rigorous analysis of companies, looking at factors including industry dynamics, operating performance and structure, as well as the sales and profit outlook. The combination of these criteria, together with how the shares are valued relative to the company’s assets and earnings outlook, helps to inform our investment decisions. We also have to consider whether the opportunities that we are looking at offer stronger prospects than the positions we already hold within our funds."
Mag. Nicole Strebinger, Senior Fundmanager, "Meinl Japan Trend" (20.09.2010): "Der Meinl Japan Trend wird seit 2005 nach einem eigens im Haus entwickelten Value Quant Modell gemanagt. Dieses fokussiert auf diverse Kennzahlen wie zB Est.Price-/Earnings Ratio, rel. Dividendenrendite, Earnings Revisions etc. und rankt diese. Um eventuelle Clusterrisiken zu vermeiden, werden die Titel nochmals gescreent. Die Gesamtaktienquote und eine mögliche Teilabsicherung des Aktienexposures bzw. des Währunsgexposures wird im Rahmen des Asset Allocation Prozesses, der auch für die Dachfonds angewendet wird, festgelegt."
Ian Burden, Fondsmanager, "Threadneedle (Lux)-Japanese Equities AJ" (15.09.2010): "Our stock selection process emphasises bottom up quality (product, management, valuation) within the context of our broader Threadneedle views of where we believe we are positioned in the business cycle - this is particularly critical for large cap names, given our previous comments on the cyclical nature of the japanese economy."
Michele Malingamba, Fondsmanager, "BSI-Multinippon A" (22.09.2010): "The criteria used are mainly based on value parameters, on relative strenght indicators and on the availability to pay a reasonable price for growth."
e-fundresearch: "Welche Über- und Untergewichtungen gegenüber der Benchmark sind derzeit im Fonds umgesetzt?"
Ronald Slattery, Fondsmanager, "Fidelity Funds - Japan Advantage A JPY" (22.09.2010): "The shape of my portfolio is changing quickly in response to price movements in the market as I diligently adhere to my target prices to trade positions, and sector allocation of my portfolio is primarily a result of stock selection.
The fund’s benchmark is Russell/Nomura Total Market Value Index. As of the end of August 2010, my portfolio was significantly overweight in the chemicals sector and moderately overweight in the pharmaceutical, transport equipment and rubber products sectors. The interesting point to remember is that the chemicals sector in Japan is not just petrochemicals; there is a diverse range of companies including personal care goods producers and fine chemicals producers catering to the technology and autos sectors. The fund’s holdings in the chemicals sector are also diverse including both cyclical and defensive names. In the pharmaceutical sector, I favour companies that look cheap on cash holdings and offer dividend yield higher than the market average. In the transport equipment and rubber products sectors, I found attractive opportunities in oversold companies in the automobile value chain.
On the other hand, the electric power & gas and bank sector was significantly underweight. I believe “defensive” nature of utility business is overrated in an uncertain market environment, while I see better opportunities elsewhere."
June-Yon Kim, Fondsmanager, "FAST - Japan A JPY Acc" (22.09.2010): "At the end of August 2010, the fund was overweight versus the MSCI Japan Index in financials, industrials, information technology, and telecommunications. It was underweight consumer discretionary and utilities, and short consumer staples and health care."
Paul Chesson, Fondsmanager des "Invesco Japanese Equity Core A" (24.09.2010): "The Invesco Japanese Equity Core Fund is managed against the Topix First Section benchmark.
Whilst we are aware of the composition of the benchmark index, and this will influence our judgement about sector exposure, we are not driven by it. Sectors are not homogenous so sector weightings can be a poor guide to true exposures. If we do not consider a stock to be a good investment, then we will not own it, irrespective of its weight in the index. As a result, where possible within the context of the market any stock held within our portfolios is an expression of a positive view.
Fund strategy (covering period 31 March 2010 to 30 June 2010)
The fund’s positioning remained broadly unchanged in the second quarter. The approximately equal split between blue chip exporters and domestically orientated businesses, largely financials, remains in place. While we continue to expect Japan’s manufacturing sector to benefit from ongoing global growth, signs that the export-led recovery are feeding through into the domestic economy underpin our confidence in the outlook for these businesses.
Among exporters, we continue to have a strong bias towards car makers. Despite the US recovery appearing reasonably well entrenched, car sales volumes continue to be at recessionary levels, having seen only modest improvement since the worst of the downturn. Consequently, we believe that there is considerable scope for demand in the US to strengthen. At the same time, demand from Asia, most notably China, continues to rise. The gradual rebalancing of China’s economy towards consumption, increasing affluence and low penetration levels offer Japanese car makers significant opportunities in the years ahead. In our view, these positives have yet to be reflected in share prices, which recently have been overshadowed by global macro-economic concerns.
Among domestic financials, our largest position is in the banking sector. In our view, valuations among these businesses are too low given the improved outlook. The stronger economic backdrop is positive for loan impairment trends and Japan’s banks are seeing an improvement in their credit costs. Equity issuance, which has been a source of uncertainty for investors, also now appears to be largely concluded. Japan’s banks are generally conservatively run, with deposits in excess of their loans and we believe that as the economic recovery continues these businesses will experience strong earnings growth. The fund also has exposure to machine tool companies and this area saw the only complete disposal during the period, in respect of THK. A position in fellow machine tools group Amada was added.
Market capitalisation breakdown
Exposure to a particular market capitalisation range is solely driven by where we find what we believe to be the most attractive opportunities at a particular point in the economic/market cycle. As such, it can and will change substantially over time."
Mag. Nicole Strebinger, Senior Fundmanager, "Meinl Japan Trend" (20.09.2010): "Als Benchmark wird der Topix 100 zu Performancevergleichen herangezogen. Aktive Abweichungen sind aber mehr die Regel als die Ausnahme. Derzeit besteht ein Übergewicht bei Konsumtiteln, insbesondere zyklischen, bei Versorgern und ein leichtes Übergewicht bei Industrials, während Financials und Basic Materials etwas untergewichtet sind."
Ian Burden, Fondsmanager, "Threadneedle (Lux)-Japanese Equities AJ" (15.09.2010): "After peaking in April the market has seen a significant correction, with obvious underperformance in high quality manufacturing names. We are presently adapting a relatively neutral sector positioning, with emphasis on stock selection within sectors. However given the scale of correction in cyclical areas of the market,we have recently gone slightly overweight in technology, autos, machinery and steel. Underweights are in food, pharma, services, land transportation and banks."
Michele Malingamba, Fondsmanager, "BSI-Multinippon A" (22.09.2010): "The BSI Multinippon Fund has the MSCI Japan (Local TR) as a benchmark. The major overweighted sectors are at present electric machinery, services, retail and construction. Among the significant sector´s underweight we mention electric&gas, transportation, food."
Alle Daten per 13.09.2010 in Euro: