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Fund Update: Pictet-Generics-P USD

Das folgende Fund Update bietet einen Rückblick auf die Performance des Fonds über die letzten fünf Kalenderjahre sowie über die aktuelle Year-to-Date Entwicklung. Der Fondsmanager Michael Sjöström, CFA, zeigt die wichtigsten Punkte des Investmentprozesses auf und gibt einen Ausblick. Funds | 07.12.2010 04:30 Uhr

Performance Review 2005

Michael Sjöström: "In Q1/2005, the fund underperformed the MSCI World Pharma Index, as pharmaceutical companies benefited from their defensive feature in the current uncertain macroeconomic environment. Some specific news such as the FDA panel’s decision in favour of a re-launch of Vioxx and the clean label granted to Crestor (AstraZeneca’s cholesterol drug) kept the industry flat in otherwise down equity markets. However, the fund outperformed its universe due to its key positions in both Eon Labs (+12.0%) and Ivax (+25.0%) – the former gained on Sandoz’s takeover bid and the latter on strong earnings and optimistic earnings guidance for 2006. Japanese generic companies Sawai Pharmaceutical (+10.2%) and Towa Pharmaceutical (+10.4%) rose in anticipation of a strong 2005 for generics in Japan. On the negative side, Elan fell 88.1% and King Pharmaceuticals lost 33.0% after Mylan walked away from the merger. During Q2/2005, the fund slightly outperformed the MSCI World Pharma Index and the generics industry as well, strongly benefiting from second top holding Endo Pharmaceutical, which gained 17% the day the Oxycontin patent was overturned. Momenta Pharmaceuticals and Alkermes were important positive contributors as well. Smaller positions in KV Pharmaceuticals and Connetics (- 30%) contributed negatively . the former on lower earnings guidance, the latter on the non-approval of Velaq gel, an acne drug. In addition, American Pharmaceutical Partners lost 20% after releasing disappointing sales for injectible generics.

In Q3/2005, the fund outperformed both the MSCI World Pharma index and the generics universe. The important exposure in Alkermes (+27%), King Pharmaceuticals, and Momenta Pharmaceuticals (+38%) contributed positively. QLT and to a smaller extent Skyepharma and Inspire Pharmaceuticals (-10%) impacted the fund negatively. In the 4th quarter, the fund continued to outperform both the MSCI World Pharma index and the generics universe in 2005, despite underperformance during the fourth quarter of 2005. The fund was penalized for its lack of exposure to Elan and through exposure to MGI Pharma (-26% in Q4) and Taro Pharmaceutical (-46%). Cephalon, Teva Pharmaceutical and Alkermes (+14% in Q4) contributed positively, with Alkermes. performance due to the approvable letter of Vivitrol from the FDA."

Performance Review 2006

Michael Sjöström: "In Q1/2006, the fund outperformed both the MSCI World Pharma index and the generics universe. Key holdings that performed particularly well were First Horizon Pharmaceutical (+46%) on solid earnings results, Andrx following Watson Pharmaceuticals. bid and QLT (+21%) on takeover rumours. Negative contributors were Skypharma (-23%), which fell after takeover rumours were not confirmed, Cephalon following a negative FDA panel decision on ADHD drug Sparlon, and Teva Pharmaceutical (-4%) after the competing multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri received a positive panel recommendation. As in Q2/2005, the fund underperformed both the MSCI World Pharma index and the generics universe. With respect to the underperformance compared to the generic industry, the Fund suffered from Dov Pharmaceuticals (-87%) stream of setbacks, but also from Momenta Pharmaceuticals (-35%) after the Lovenox litigation was remanded to the Lower District Court, and Teva Pharmaceutical (-23%) on reduced profits during the Zocor/Zoloft exclusivities. Nevertheless, their negative contribution was mitigated by strong performance of Sawai Pharmaceutical, MGI Pharma and Sepracor (+17%).

During Q3/2006, the fund underperformed the MSCI World Pharma and the generics universe. Hana Biosciences and Critical Therapeutics, two smaller-capitalisation companies, decreased respectively by 24% and 33%, without any fundamental reason behind this decline. Sepracor also contributed negatively. On the positive side, top holding Forest and the fund’s exposure to Eastern Europe had a positive impact. In the 4th quarter of the year 2006, finally, the fund outperformed the MSCI World Pharma index, but underperformed the generics universe. Positive contributors were Sciele Pharma (+27%) on good quarterly earnings, Lonza (+25%) after its strategic move into microbial fermentation and Sepracor (+27%) on a better reimbursement landscape for Xopenex. Endo, Alkermes and Taro contributed negatively. The Fund underperformed its benchmark over the year 2006."

Performance Review 2007

Michael Sjöström: "In Q1/2007, the fund performed inline with the generics universe and outperformed the MSCI World Pharma index (-1%). Positive contributors were Teva and Alkermes on good earnings, as well as Zentiva following the purchase of a 75% stake of Eczacibasi. Laggards were Gedeon Richter, Momenta (-18%) and Hana. During Q2/2007, the fund outperformed the MSCI World Pharma index. Positive contributors were Endo (+16%) after being added to the S&P 400, Japanese generics company Towa (+29%) as well as Slovenian generics company Krka on strong earnings. Labopharm and Momenta contributed negatively to performance.

In Q3/2007, the fund outperformed the MSCI World Pharma index. Krka (+23%), Nichi-Iko (+17%) and specialty pharma Alkermes (+26%) contributed positively,  the latter on anticipation of positive data on Byetta LAR, an extended release version of Byetta. Laggards were Sawai  (-14%) and Nippon Chemiphar (-13%) on lower-than-expected earnings, as well as Forest (-18%), even though the patent dispute on Lexapro ended in its favour. PF(Lux)-Generics outperformed the MSCI World Pharma both in Q4 (+2% vs. -2%) and for 2007 (+7% vs. -1%). Main positive contributors in Q4 were Japanese generics (Sawai +44%, Nippon Chemiphar +39%, Nichi Iko +16%) and strong performance by Indian companies (Sun Pharma +28%, Biocon +24% and Cipla +18%). The main setback for the fund came from Momenta (-37%) following the FDA’s non-approvable letter for generic Lovenox (blood thinner), Nektar (-24%) whose partner Pfizer discontinued sales of Exubera (inhaled insulin) and Alkermes (-15%), which released excellent clinical results for Byetta LAR (diabetes), which nonetheless fell a little short of analysts. expectations.PF(Lux)-Generics was in line with its benchmark over most of the year 2007."

Performance Review 2008

Michael Sjöström: "In Q1/2008, the fund outperformed the MSCI World Pharma Index in (-3% vs. -10%). Main positive contributors were Stada (+19%) up on strong results and a delay in the implementation of discount contracts with Germany’s largest insurer AOK, as well as Zentiva (+14%), which is emerging from two quarters of disappointing financial performance. Nichi-Iko (+18%) and Sawai (+17%) were also strong, in part due to new government incentives to increase generics use in Japan. Negative contributors include Indian players Biocon (-27%) and Dr Reddy (-21%), hurt by an overall weakness in the Indian market and less than stellar quarterly results. Shire (-15%) corrected in Q1 due to investor concern about the pace of market adoption of Vyvanse (ADHD) and Alkermes was down on the Air Insulin news. During Q2/2008, the fund underperformed slightly with respect to the MSCI World Pharma Index (-2% vs. -1%), but has continued to outperform nicely since the beginning of the year (-5% vs. -11%). Positive contributions came from Savient (US, +27%), Zentiva (Eastern Europe, +14%) and Ranbaxy (India, 11%), while KV Pharmaceutical (-23%), Shire (-15%) and Nichi-Iko (Japan, -14%) lagged behind.

In Q3/2008, the fund (-11.5%) underperformed the MSCI World Pharma Index (-4.5%) in. Key negative contributors include Stada (-45%), Savient (-41%), which fell despite releasing positive clinical data, owing to investor disappointment about lack of progress on the partnership or M&A front. We expect the impact of Ranbaxy’s fall (-57%) to be moderated in coming weeks, as 46% of the Fund’s position was accepted for tender to Daiichi Sankyo at a price close to 300% the stock’s current levels. Positive contributors this quarter were specialty players Cephalon (+16%) and KV-Pharma (+18%), as well as Barr (+45%), which is being acquired by Teva. Finally, in Q4/2008, the PF(Lux)-Generics (-17%) lagged the MSCI World Pharma Index (-7%), despite outperforming in December (+10% vs. +7%). The fund was negatively impacted by its exposure in KV Pharma and companies from emerging markets, particularly Krka (Slovenia, -36%), Hikma (Jordan, -30%) and Pharmstandard (Russia, -65%). Strong performance of Japanese generics Nichi-Iko (+27%), Sawai (+25%) and Towa (+22%) as well as specialty pharma company Endo (+29%) helped mitigate the losses."

Performance Review 2009

Michael Sjöström: "In Q1/2009, the fund significantly outperformed the benchmark. Positive contributors included Mylan, Hospira and Lonza. Top negative contributors included Stada, Gedeon Richter and Endo. Also in Q2/2009, the fund significantly outperformed the benchmark. The top positive performance contributors were all emerging market stocks, including Hikma, based in Jordan; Gedeon Richter from Hungary; and the Indian players Dr. Reddy’s and Biocon. Negative performance contributors included Mylan, Lonza and Endo.

As for Q3/2009, the fund slightly underperformed its benchmark. Top contributors to performance were Mylan, Pharmstandard and Shire. Top detractors from performance included Momenta, Hikma and Towa. Finally, in Q4/2009, the fund slightly underperformed the benchmark. Top performance contributors included Stada, Mylan and Teva. Top performance detractors included Lonza, Krka and the Japanese generic player Nichi-Iko. PF(Lux)-Generic significantly outperformed its benchmark over the whole year."

Performance Review 2010 - Year-to-Date

Michael Sjöström: "In Q1/2010, The fund significantly outperformed the benchmark. Top performance contributors were Perrigo, Mylan and the Russian generic player Pharmstandard. Top performance detractors were Gedeon Richter, which reported lacklustre 2009 results and a cautious outlook for 2010, as well as Acino and 3SBio. In Q2/2010, the fund significantly outperformed its benchmark too. Top performance contributors were Japanese generics players Sawai, Nichi-Iko and Towa. Top performance detractors were Mylan, Teva and the Hungarian generic player Egis, whose USD performance was negatively impacted by the 17% decline of the Hungarian forint versus the dollar.

In Q3/2010, the fund underperformed its benchmark. Top performance contributors included South African player Aspen, Hungarian generic Gedeon Richter and Swiss contract manufacturer Lonza. Top performance detractors were the Japanese generic players Towa, Sawai and Nichi-Iko."

Performance since 2005

Michael Sjöström: "The fund underperformed its reference index only in two out of five years since 2005. In 2009 and 2010 it outperformed its reference index significantly."

Investment Process and Strategy – How does the Fund Manager Invest?

The investment process is bottom-up. The fund manager focuses on commercially successful companies or firms with late-stage development products. It is a five-steps process:

1. Idea generation:
Although the investment process is a continuum, the trigger point of any single process is an idea. The original idea may have several possible sources such as Sectoral´s Scientific Advisory Network (SAN), industry contacts, interactions with companies, scientific and lay literature, Wall Street research, screening, etc.

2. Fundamental analysis
Sectoral conducts preliminary research and analysis to select candidates for further evaluation. This includes desk research such as reviewing literature and documentation, interaction with companies and with our SAN. Finally, we perform a summary model and scenario analysis before selecting the investment candidates.

3. Valuation
Once the financial modeling is complete, the analysts attempt to determine the fair value for each investment candidate as well as a 1-year and a 3-year price target. Depending on the development stage of the company, these are determined using various models such as discounted cash-flow models, EBITDA models, classical growth models (PE approach), enterprise value/sales and peer group analysis.

We then compare the resulting fair value to the current market value of each investment candidate and issue a Buy or Sell recommendation.

5. Implementation
In this last step, the portfolio manager assesses the impact of including each investment candidate on the portfolio´s risk/return profile and proceeds with the construction of the portfolio. Our clients’ portfolios tend to be relatively concentrated with 25-35 positions.  Portfolio implementation can be executed promptly or gradually depending on liquidity issues and time sensitivity.

Investment Outlook

Michael Sjöström: "We expect companies based in emerging pharmaceutical markets of Russia and the CIS, MENA (Middle East North Africa), and Asia to continue performing well, benefiting from strong domestic growth mainly driven by branded Generics. Consolidation in the sector is likely to continue as generic companies look to gain scale, new markets and more efficient cost structures. In Japan, a potentially huge market for generics that is currently not well penetrated, there are increasing signs of progress. Finally, biosimilars are profiling well with the first biosimilar product recently approved in Japan and a US regulatory pathway taking shape over the next 12 months. The industry remains attractively valued at 13.5x 2011E earnings, with projected sales and earnings growth of 15% annually over the next 5 years."

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