e-fundresearch: "Welche fundamentale Faktoren sind für die Markteinschätzung von Gold, Silber und anderen Edelmetallen derzeit am wichtigsten?"
Peter Meier, Fondsmanager des "Quantex Strategic Precious Metal (CHF)" (01.12.2010): "Primär die Geldpolitik der wichtigsten Notenbanken, allen voran des amerikanischen Fed und der EZB. Die inflationäre Geldpolitik ist der Haupttreiber der steigenden Investorennachfrage nach Edelmetallen und damit der Gold- und Silberpreise."
Johanna Keller, Fondsmanagerin des "LO Funds - World Gold Expertise (USD) P A" (08.12.2010): "Gold price has, over the last months repeatedly reached some new historical highs. This year the main driver for the price increase is the investment demand which is high due to the current macro environment, notably fears regarding potential currency debasements following the quantitative easing policies and fears regarding the European sovereign debt crisis. As such, gold as a safe haven asset and a hedge against devaluing currencies appears attractive to investors. Silver which is often considered as a leverage play on gold has benefited from this trend while amplifying gold movements."
Bradley George & Daniel Sacks, Portfolio Manager des "Investec GSF Global Gold A Acc Gross" (09.12.2010): "In our opinion, the most important factor driving gold and silver prices is currently investment demand, both by private investors (in the form of ETFs) and government central banks, coupled with constrained supply. Demand is high from investors who view gold as a relatively safe investment. This has been a key driver of recent ETF demand and we expect this trend to continue whilst the economic outlook remains uncertain. Demand for physical gold for jewellery has also been robust, particularly from India. On the other hand, supply is likely to become constrained by flat-to-falling new mine production. Despite the continued capital spending by the gold industry, new mine supply is likely to remain relatively flat year-on-year.
Gold´s long-term negative correlation with the trade-weighted dollar index is showing tentative signs of weakening. As European sovereign concerns grow, we expect this traditional inverse correlation to weaken further. During the previous peak of the sovereign crisis in the second quarter, gold flipped to being positively correlated with the dollar. So while in the short term gold is likely to struggle against a stronger dollar, we believe the re-emergence of sovereign risk should ultimately help the yellow metal.
Silver behaves similarly to gold, being a durable real asset which reacts well to investment demand as investors diversify away from assets with no real yield and into a real asset which is no-one’s liability and can offer inflation-hedge benefits."
Evy Hambro, Manager des "BGF World Gold Fund A2 USD" (09.12.2010): "Gold has hit the headlines throughout the year with the price of bullion repeatedly breaking record highs. There has been much discussion about the sustainability of the current gold price and a wide spread of forecasts for the peak. At the Denver Gold Forum, a meeting of industry figures in September, the overriding view was that the gold price had further to appreciate from current levels. We should note that a strengthening US dollar, higher real interest rates or an above consensus global recovery could negatively impact this view.
If we look more closely at the factors which have supported the gold rally so far, it is difficult to see them dissipating next year. While major currencies look weak and uncertainty remains about the strength and durability of the global economic recovery, investors continue to see gold as a ‘safe haven asset.’
Traditionally, the official sector has been a supplier of the precious metal; however, it will probably be a net buyer this year. Emerging market governments, such as India, are adding to demand in their drive to diversify reserves from the US dollar alongside many other countries such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, Mauritius and Sri Lanka, who have all announced increases to their gold holdings in foreign exchange reserves this year. As emerging markets reserves are increasing and sales from European banks are falling, the alterations to the supply-demand matrix are supportive of a higher gold price. Gold ETFs and jewelry demand, especially from China’s emerging middle classes have also supported the price rise. Combined with the mining industry’s inability to incrementally increase supply (mining production peaked in 2001) and a lack of supply from central banks, we expect these factors to be supportive of a higher gold price over the long term."
Walter Wehrli, Fondsmanager des "NESTOR Gold Fonds" (01.12.2010): "Die Preisbildung ist eine Funktion von Angebot und Nachfrage. Grundsätzlich haben wir heute die Situation, dass die Nachfrage am Steigen ist und das Angebot nicht ausgeweitet werden kann. Im Falle von Gold ist die Minenproduktion über die letzten Jahre sogar gefallen. Zudem ist das Angebot aufgrund ausbleibenden Notenbankverkäufe gesunken. Auf der Nachfrageseite werden die Edelmetalle aufgrund ihres „safe haven“-Charakters vermehrt nachgefragt. Die Investitionsnachfrage ist gestiegen. Zudem profitieren die Edelmetalle vom wirtschaftlichen Aufschwung der östlichen Länder. Platin und Palladium z.B. profitieren von den steigenden Autoverkäufen in China (Katalysatoren). Gold erfreut sich ebenfalls einer starken Schmucknachfrage."
e-fundresearch: "Wie ist Ihr genereller Ausblick für Gold und Edelmetalle für die nächsten 12-18 Monate?"
Peter Meier, Fondsmanager des "Quantex Strategic Precious Metal (CHF)" (01.12.2010): "Der Markt erscheint kurzfristig eher etwas überhitzt, da Gold seit einiger Zeit im Zentrum des Anlegerinteresses steht. Eine Korrektur in den nächsten 12 Monaten ist deshalb wahrscheinlich. Der weitere Verlauf wird durch die Geldpolitik der Notenbanken bestimmt. Wird weiter Geld gedruckt, etwa um überschuldete EU-Staaten zu retten, so kann der Goldpreis noch gewaltig steigen."
Johanna Keller, Fondsmanagerin des "LO Funds - World Gold Expertise (USD) P A" (08.12.2010): "For gold we continue to have a positive outlook as the investment demand might remain sustained due to the current macro environment and the continued fears we have outlined in the previous question. Accordingly, investors should continue to find gold attractive due to its store of value characteristics. Furthermore it is a mean of diversification in a portfolio and this might also be appealing for investors which might question the attractiveness of the other asset classes in this uncertain environment. Another support for the gold price is the change in Central banks attitude we have witnessed: until last year, European Central Banks were selling parts of their gold reserves, but have now almost stopped this practice. At present, the main seller in the market is the IMF which had planned to sell 403 tonnes of gold, of which 351 tonnes have already been sold. On the other hand Emerging Central Banks are buying gold to diversify their reserves. This means that a source of supply is disappearing and seems to have become a source of demand. Also, as customers get used to higher gold prices, jewellery demand in some of the key markets like India and China is recovering. Finally, industrial demand is also improving.
Therefore we continue to think that there are several supportive factors for gold. However, there will be some volatility in the markets, notably due to the speculative flows and US Dollar movements.
One should also notice that compared to gold, gold related equities have attractive valuations and don’t seem to reflect completely the current gold price!
An important part of the demand for other precious metals like silver or platinum comes from industrial applications, such as the automotive industry with its demand for platinum and palladium. As such they are much more linked to economic growth than gold. Furthermore the supply picture from one metal to another varies: the offer for platinum which relies for an important part on South African production might be constrained by power issues and labour cost pressure; In contrast to platinum, silver supply is much more abundant, also because silver often produced as a by-product of other metals."
Bradley George & Daniel Sacks, Portfolio Manager des "Investec GSF Global Gold A Acc Gross" (09.12.2010): "Volatility in bond and equity markets and concerns over the world’s major currencies has encouraged investors to seek alternative global stores of value. Moreover, demand from investors has been spurred by expected pressure on prices from tight supply and rising demand.
Over the longer term, we have a positive outlook for gold, based on a mix of macroeconomic and supply-demand drivers. As an asset with inherent value, gold is likely to appeal to investors concerned about uncertainty such as the risk of inflation, instability caused by fluctuating oil prices, global economic imbalances, sovereign risk and geopolitical uncertainty.
There is however a number of factors that may adversely impact the gold price over the medium term, which include a stronger US dollar and falling inflation (and/or lower inflationary expectations). A more subdued outlook for global growth may also depress the gold price."
Walter Wehrli, Fondsmanager des "NESTOR Gold Fonds" (01.12.2010): "Wir sind sehr zuversichtlich, dass sich die Edelmetalle gut entwickeln werden. Einerseits wird die Minenproduktion nicht wesentlich ansteigen. Obwohl die Unternehmen vermehrt Geld für die Exploration ausgeben, finden sie kaum neue Vorkommen. Zudem verkaufen die Notenbanken kein Gold mehr. Im Gegenteil: wir rechnen damit, dass die Notenbanken auf netto Basis über die nächsten 12-18 Monate Zukäufe machen werden und somit neu auf der Angebotsseite aufzuführen sind. Das weltweite Schuldenproblem ist nicht gelöst. Bis anhin wurden die Schulden sozialisiert und kaum reduziert. Die Staaten geraten immer mehr unter Druck. Protektionistische Massnahmen werden eingeführt und das Wort Währungskrieg liest man immer öfters in der Zeitung. Die weltweiten Ungleichgewichte sind markant. Die Notenbanken (insbesondere der FED mit QE2) haben die Geldschleusen weit geöffnet. Vor diesem Hintergrund rechnen wir damit, dass die Investitionsnachfrage weiter ansteigen wird und die Edelmetallpreise (hauptsächlich Gold und Silber) weiter markant an Wert zulegen werden."
e-fundresearch: "Welche Über- und Untergewichtungen in Aktien haben Sie derzeit im Fonds umgesetzt?"
Peter Meier, Fondsmanager des "Quantex Strategic Precious Metal (CHF)" (01.12.2010): "Übergewichtet sind wir zur Zeit in eher tief bewerteten Minentiteln, welche aus verschiedenen Gründen das aktuelle Rally im Sektor verpasst haben wie IamGold, Gammon Gold oder African Barrick. Auch Large Caps wie Barrick Gold gefallen uns auf Grund ihrer tiefen Bewertung immer besser."
Johanna Keller, Fondsmanagerin des "LO Funds - World Gold Expertise (USD) P A" (08.12.2010): "The LO Fund World Gold Expertise (USD) P A has a mid to small cap bias as we want to benefit from the growth and scarcity embedded in future gold reserves. This means that we tend to be underweight in stocks like Barrick or Newmont while looking to find investment opportunities in companies which would be able to grow their production and their gold reserves in a meaningful way for the firm. We are for instance actually overweight in Osisko Mining."
Bradley George & Daniel Sacks, Portfolio Manager des "Investec GSF Global Gold A Acc Gross" (09.12.2010): "We have positioned the portfolio overweight gold producers with good cost control where operating costs are below $500 per ounce, operations (costs) in weakening currencies, those with strong balance sheets (do not require funding) exhibiting growing production profiles, and most importantly strong free cash flow generation. Specific examples of such companies in which we have overweight positions include Newcrest, Barrick Gold, Kinross Gold and Agnico-Eagle. We also have a large position in palladium, via the palladium exchange traded fund, which provides physically backed exposure to the underlying commodity."
Evy Hambro, Manager des "BGF World Gold Fund A2 USD" (09.12.2010): "The Fund has an underweight to large cap gold majors and an overweight to high growth mid-cap gold companies."
Walter Wehrli, Fondsmanager des "NESTOR Gold Fonds" (01.12.2010): "Im Goldsektor bekunden die grosskapitalisierten Gesellschaften Mühe, Ihre aktuelle Produktion durch neue Reserven und Ressourcen zu ersetzen und müssen diese aufkaufen. Von diesem Umstand profitieren Explorations- und Wachstumsunternehmen. Nestor Gold Fonds investiert hauptsächlich in diese Gruppen. Zudem halten wir ein Untergewicht in politisch riskante Regionen, wie z.B. Venezuela und Kongo."
Frage 4:
e-fundresearch: "Bitte kommentieren Sie die Performance- und Risikokennzahlen Ihres Fonds im laufenden Jahr und in den letzten 3 bzw. 5 Jahren."
Peter Meier, Fondsmanager des "Quantex Strategic Precious Metal (CHF)" (01.12.2010): "Der Quantex Strategic Precious Metal Fund hat in den letzten 3 und 5 Jahren praktisch alle anderen Fonds im Goldsektor outperformt. Die Hauptgründe dafür waren: Die strategische Kombination von physischem Gold und Goldminen-Aktien, die Absicherung der Währungsrisiken zum Schweizer Franken, gutes Stock Picking mit Augenmerk auf kleine und mittelgrosse Goldminen mit Wachstumspotenzial und moderater Bewertung sowie die Ausklammerung gewisser politischer Hochrisiko-Länder wie Südafrika."
Johanna Keller, Fondsmanagerin des "LO Funds - World Gold Expertise (USD) P A" (08.12.2010): "As of end of November 2010 the LO Fund World Gold Expertise (USD) P A has been able to outperform its benchmark over all those time periods, with a volatility over 5 years which is similar to the one of the benchmark as we are well diversified among 90 to 120 names. The bias on the small and mid caps that we have decided to implement in the fund has been an important contributor to performance. The supply issues the gold sector faces will favour companies that are able to grow their reserves and therefore should continue to offer attractive returns."
Bradley George & Daniel Sacks, Portfolio Manager des "Investec GSF Global Gold A Acc Gross" (09.12.2010): "The performance of the Investec Global Gold Strategy since inception is shown below:
Investec Global Gold Fund – performance in USD
Note: Past performance should not be taken as a guide to the future.
Source: Lipper, to 30 September 2010. Performance is shown net of fees on a NAV basis (inclusive of all annual management fees but excluding any initial charges), gross income reinvested. Performance would be lower had initial charges been included. Performance is shown in US dollars. Performance for periods greater than one year is annualised. Performance shows the data of the A Acc share class. *S&P 500.
The risk controls of the Investec Global Gold Strategy are as follows:
Note: These are internal restrictions and subject to change
Evy Hambro, Manager des "BGF World Gold Fund A2 USD" (09.12.2010):
Walter Wehrli, Fondsmanager des "NESTOR Gold Fonds" (01.12.2010): "Der Fonds konnte über alle obgenannten Zeitspannen besser abschneiden als der Referenzindex. Ein wichtiger Grund ist sicherlich die Tatsache, dass wir das strukturelle Problem richtig erkannt haben und dementsprechend ein Übergewicht in Explorations- und Wachstumsunternehmen hielten. Da diese Gesellschaften meisten zu den Small- und Mid-Caps gehören, weisen sie eine grosse Volatilität auf. Es ist deshalb mit grösseren Schwankungen zu rechnen."
e-fundresearch: "Welche Edelmetalle sind derzeit attraktive Investments und was sind die Gründe für diese Einschätzung?"
Peter Meier, Fondsmanager des "Quantex Strategic Precious Metal (CHF)" (01.12.2010): "Gold und Silber sind momentan korrekturanfällig, bleiben aber langfristig attraktiv und angesichts der überaus lockeren Geldpolitik eine wichtige Inflationsversicherung für jedes Depot aus Aktien und Anleihen."
Bradley George & Daniel Sacks, Portfolio Manager des "Investec GSF Global Gold A Acc Gross" (09.12.2010): "We believe that gold is an attractive investment both from a capital appreciation perspective and as a diversifier – it has historically demonstrated a very low correlation to other financial assets and can act as a diversifier within a balanced portfolio. We believe that gold has finally broken clear of the $700–$1,000 per ounce range that has dominated the last two years, with new parameters being established. We believe that the degree of investment demand will force a peak that is nearer $1,400 per ounce over the next six months, with $1,000 per ounce now becoming the long term floor.
We are also currently bullish on palladium. The combination of restricted supply from South Africa, the cessation of Russian stockpile sales, and a resumption of demand from auto manufacturers (particularly from the petrol-heavy Chinese car markets which use palladium-rich catalytic converters), should lead to a market showing multi-year deficits. In our view palladium has a lot of potential upside from this fundamental perspective, as well as from an investment point of view. Palladium exchange traded funds are attracting much investor interest as the metal looks very cheap, particularly relative to its sister metal, platinum.
We believe that some gold equities are poised to benefit from the strong underlying gold price, and that their upside potential may look even greater than that of the precious metal itself. From a historical perspective, certain gold equities look very attractively valued now, in our view. Companies that have significant free cash generation, a production growth profile, have implemented their austerity measures in 2008-2009 and are managing operating costs below $500 per ounce, should exhibit improving operating margins, may show significant upside in 2010 – possibly by as much as double that of gold itself.
Lastly, if gold companies continue with strong free cash flow generation and remain disciplined on the mergers and acquisitions front then there is a possibility that certain companies may look to pay a dividend to shareholders."
Evy Hambro, Manager des "BGF World Gold Fund A2 USD" (09.12.2010): "While gold has taken the spotlight this year in terms of media attention, there have been interesting moves in other metals. The sustained pick-up in industrial activity has led to significant increases in silver and copper prices, with gains of 41% and 12% respectively. Since the financial crisis, some metals have been able to increase supply as demand has recovered. Other commodities, notably copper, have struggled to raise output. Structural challenges, such as the trend towards more underground mining, the prospect of mining lower-grade deposits (where there is a lower percentage of copper in the ore) and political instabilities in some production regions such as the DRC are all constraining supply. Against this strained outlook for supply, industrial demand has been improving. In a world where demand for copper remains robust due to its attributes as a key component in electrical infrastructure as well as consumer durables, there is likely to be strong upward price pressures on the copper price as deficit emerges and inventories are drawn down."
Walter Wehrli, Fondsmanager des "NESTOR Gold Fonds" (01.12.2010): "Platin und Palladium weisen eine grössere Abhängigkeit vom weltweiten Wirtschaftswachstum auf (Autoverkäufe) als Gold. Wir favorisieren Gold und Silber, da sie auch Währungsmittel sind. Diese Edelmetalle profitieren mehr von den im Punkt 2. genannten Faktoren."
Alle Daten per 30.11.2010 in Euro:
