Frank Schäfer, Subadvisory Relationships bei Clariden Leu, "Clariden Leu (Lux) Emerging Markets Equity Fund B" (31.01.2011): "We believe one of the most important factors when assessing stocks in emerging markets is liquidity, which for the management of our Emerging Markets Fund, for example, means adhering to strict liquidity screening to ensure we do not invest in a company we cannot liquidate in approximately one week.
In terms of fundamental factors, we primarily focus on industrial capacity and replacement cost. We calculate a company’s RVBRIC value (“replacement value, balance-sheet risk, and industry conditions”), which is a proprietary valuation metric calculated as the quotient of enterprise value divided by industrial capacity, or replacement value. Enterprise value is the sum of market capitalization and net working capital, all in US dollars, while industrial capacity is expressed in the relevant unit of capacity for each company. This allows us to capture the debt dynamics as well as the valuation relative to replacement cost."
Vincent Strauss, Portfoliomanager, "Magellan C" & "Comgest Growth Emerging Markets Cap USD" (27.01.2011): "Entscheidend wird in den nächsten Quartalen sein, dass die Unternehmen auch bei steigenden Kosten ihre Gewinnmargen aufrechterhalten können. Dies wird nur den Unternehmen gelingen, die über dominante Marktpositionen verfügen und Spielraum bei der Preissetzung besitzen."
Pauli Laursen, Portfoliomanager "ISI BRIC Equities" (01.02.2011): "As top-down-investors we concentrate most of our efforts on finding the right countries and sectors. That means we try to evaluate the macroeconomic and political situation of a particular country, which according to our opinion is paramount when investing in emerging markets equity. Then we try to identify the right sectors, in the next step only the right companies. Basically our portfolio is made up of the right sectors not companies, as we try to avoid company-specific risks."
e-fundresearch: "Which countries and sectors are currently over- and underweighted?"
Devan Kaloo, Fondsmanager "Aberdeen Global - Emerging Markets Equity A2 Acc" (25.01.2011): "As bottom-up stock pickers, our country and sector allocations are driven by where we can find quality companies with attractive valuations. This style may lead to significant deviations from the index.
Largest country positions versus benchmark
Hong Kong – the territory offers listed companies that have diversified, regional business activities, particularly those that provide an exposure to China, with the added advantage of better standards of accounting and transparency.
India – the economy is less dependent on external demand than other Asian countries and has weathered the global downturn in relatively sound shape. The companies in which we invest offer good long-term value, given their healthy balance sheets and good management.
Turkey – companies in Turkey tend to be well run and have conservatively managed balance sheets, such as our two holdings BIM and Akbank.
China – the country looks interesting from a top-down perspective but the positive macro environment is not always reflected at the corporate level. We prefer to gain exposure to China via well established Hong Kong domiciled companies that do business in China.
Korea – a relatively mature economy with well known global brands such as Samsung and Hyundai. The key problem has been the domination of the chaebol, huge conglomerates that can make the business landscape less competitive. Moves by the government to prevent hostile takeovers of domestic companies have also raised concerns.
Taiwan – the country is home to a number of interesting businesses but more than half of the market is in cyclical industries. Also, corporate transparency is generally poor.
Largest sector positions versus benchmark
Financials and Consumer Staples – our overweight to these sectors is due to our optimism over the growing domestic demand story. We feel that emerging economies will become increasingly domestically driven and less reliant on exports.
Health Care – the sector offers high quality generic pharmaceutical opportunities with exposure to growing domestic demand for prescription drugs. These companies are leaders in cost efficiency and have strong distribution capabilities.
Materials – we remain wary of the sector, where businesses tend to be cyclical and do not fit in with our long term, steady growth investment style.
Industrials – we generally view companies in this sector as cyclical businesses that are vulnerable to margin pressures and are thus underweight.
Utilities – while it is a relatively defensive sector, it generally involves more regulatory risk."
Frank Schäfer, Subadvisory Relationships bei Clariden Leu, "Clariden Leu (Lux) Emerging Markets Equity Fund B" (31.01.2011): "At the end of December 2010, our country and sector weights versus the MSCI Emerging Markets Index were as follows:"
Vincent Strauss, Portfoliomanager, "Magellan C" & "Comgest Growth Emerging Markets Cap USD" (27.01.2011): "Unternehmen aus dem Sektor Konsumgüter sind in den letzten Jahren extrem stark gestiegen und weisen hohe Bewertungen auf. Attraktiver finden wir Branchen, die von Investoren vernachlässigt worden sind, wie z.B. Mobilfunkfirmen in den Schwellenländern. Letztendlich ist Mobilfunk auch nur ein Konsumgut – diese Unternehmen sind aber deutlich niedriger bewertet."
Pauli Laursen, Portfoliomanager "ISI BRIC Equities" (01.02.2011): "We are currently overweight in Russia, which seems to be the only BRIC country that will deliver a higher growth this year than last year. We believe the country will profit from a higher demand for oil and energy in 2011. As most investors avoid Russia it looks cheap. The BRIC country which is weighted the least in our portfolio is India. Despite the fact that it has done well last year, and seen a lot of money flow into the market, the political risk has risen. The government has not been able to meet the high expectations after the last elections and is becoming increasingly weak. Brazil and China are neutrally weighted. In Brazil rising inflation and interest rates are making investors nervous. Investors are also worried about inflation and fiscal tightening in China, but we believe the country will do ok."
e-fundresearch: "How do you assess the future potential of the BRIC countries?"
Devan Kaloo, Fondsmanager "Aberdeen Global - Emerging Markets Equity A2 Acc" (25.01.2011): "While there is no doubting the importance of these populous countries that are already among the main contributors to global economic growth, BRIC is a ‘top-down’ idea that can create a distraction, restricting the investment universe. We prefer to choose our investments from an unconstrained, global emerging market equity universe, using bottom-up analysis, because we believe that companies with trustworthy management, sound business models and healthy cashflow will perform well in the long term, regardless of location."
Frank Schäfer, Subadvisory Relationships bei Clariden Leu, "Clariden Leu (Lux) Emerging Markets Equity Fund B" (31.01.2011): "All of our investment decisions are sector or stock based, not country based. We therefore do not preselect individual countries or regions as potential investments. Our bottom-up analysis occasionally yields strong country or regional themes, but they are the result of bottom-up analysis, not top-down macro judgements."
Vincent Strauss, Portfoliomanager, "Magellan C" & "Comgest Growth Emerging Markets Cap USD" (27.01.2011): "Es ist schwierig in China oder Russland gute Unternehmen zu finden. Indien ist leider – berechtigerweise –bereits hoch bewertet. In Brasilien gibt es etliche solide Unternehmen mit regelmäßigem Gewinnwachstum. Allerdings finden wir abseits der BRIC-Länder mehr Unternehmen, die von den Investoren vergessen worden sind und dementsprechend billig zu haben sind."
Pauli Laursen, Portfoliomanager "ISI BRIC Equities" (01.02.2011): "According to our point of view India has the greatest potential as workers earn the least there out of all BRIC countries (3.000 USD per year). Chinese workers earn 6.000 USD, Brazilian and Russian workers 10.000 USD respectively 16.000 USD. India is definately going in the right direction. With rising wages consumption will also increase. We hope that the planned infrastructure investments will be implemented. So far about one half have been implemented. China on the other hand has to challenge its growth model. It can not only rely on the export sector but must develop its domestic market. Brazil also has a lot of growth potential but very bad infrastructure. In Russia, the most developed market of the four, the growth potential is obviously not as big. The Russian government will also need to spend more on infrastructure. What is beginning to change in Russia is that more and more credit is available to small and medium-sized companies."
e-fundresearch: "Will Global Emerging Markets outperform the MSCI World Index over the next 12 months?"
Devan Kaloo, Fondsmanager "Aberdeen Global - Emerging Markets Equity A2 Acc" (25.01.2011): "We´re cautiously optimistic about the prospects for emerging market economies and companies in 2011 given their financial strength. Low levels of debt mean that governments and consumers do not face the same challenges as their peers in the West. Meanwhile company fundamentals continue to improve, thanks to a combination of balance sheet discipline and an improved operating environment. Of course, inflation and asset bubbles are a concern and the region’s policymakers need to continue to take action.
However, the prospects for stockmarkets in the region - and around the world for that matter - are less easy to forecast with short-term capital flows likely to be more influenced by the euro debt crisis and the fragility of economic growth in the West rather than the emerging growth story. Consequently it is important for us as investors to remain focused on fundamentals and the long-term prospects of our companies."
Frank Schäfer, Subadvisory Relationships bei Clariden Leu, "Clariden Leu (Lux) Emerging Markets Equity Fund B" (31.01.2011): "We see strong growth potential in emerging markets and, given a large majority of outperformance in the World Index stems from emerging markets, we would anticipate continued strength in these regions. We believe certain sectors within emerging markets are very vulnerable to a correction on valuation grounds, however, so the coming year will be especially important for sector allocation and stock selection."
Vincent Strauss, Portfoliomanager, "Magellan C" & "Comgest Growth Emerging Markets Cap USD" (27.01.2011): "Die Bewertung ist weiterhin attraktiv, das Gewinnwachstum solide. Alles spricht für eine weitere Outperformance. Die Überstimmung mit dem Konsensus macht uns allerdings Sorgen."
Pauli Laursen, Portfoliomanager "ISI BRIC Equities" (01.02.2011): "That’s a good question, which we also discuss a lot at the moment. Many believe that this year strong numbers will come out of the US and Germany, while the emerging markets are expected to grow a little less. Others expect the emerging markets to perform stronger. Basically there are good arguments for both positions."
e-fundresearch: "What are currently the most important risks and challenges for investors in Emerging Markets?"
Devan Kaloo, Fondsmanager "Aberdeen Global - Emerging Markets Equity A2 Acc" (25.01.2011): "Looking ahead, robust growth in the developing world and a further influx of liquidity fuelled by the Fed’s latest bout of quantitative easing may well continue to drive emerging equities. But we expect volatility to persist, as structural imbalances, rising inflation, international currency disputes and Europe’s debt problems continue to dominate market attention in 2011. In addition, the gains of the last 12 months have left some markets looking vulnerable to a correction. Although there is still value to be found, a degree of caution is merited."
Frank Schäfer, Subadvisory Relationships bei Clariden Leu, "Clariden Leu (Lux) Emerging Markets Equity Fund B" (31.01.2011): "We believe the most important challenges for investors in 2011 will be inflation and global interest rates. We fully expect inflation scare at some point this year and a drawdown in asset prices. In emerging markets, however, this will most likely be a buying opportunity.
In the global debate between inflation and deflation, we favor victory for inflation and emerging markets, primarily because we believe China has historically favored inflation and because India and Brazil have a good record of talking about inflation but a poor record of actually fighting it. Rising long-term interest rates in developed countries appear to have become a fact of life in a very short period of time, and we must therefore assume they are now fully discounted in the markets. What we do not think is discounted is a flattening of the yield curve as short-term interest rates respond. This is the most likely source of volatility in our markets this year (with the exception of ever-present European sovereign risk)."
Vincent Strauss, Portfoliomanager, "Magellan C" & "Comgest Growth Emerging Markets Cap USD" (27.01.2011): "Inflation, zunehmender Konkurrenzdruck durch Unternehmen aus den entwickelten Ländern, Handelsbarrieren und Abwehr-Maßnahmen auf der Währungsseite."
Pauli Laursen, Portfoliomanager "ISI BRIC Equities" (01.02.2011): "One risk would be a strong recovery in the US. This would lead to rising commodity prices which in return would fuel inflation growth in the emerging markets. In this case the Fed would most likely raise interest rates which would result in less liquidity. All in all this risk is not very likely. Political risks are also very unlikely in Russia. Elections in India could make the markets nervous. In Brazil we expect that Rousseff will continue Lula’s course.
Apart from inflation we see no real risks in China."
Alle Daten per 21.01.2011: