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Die besten Skandinavien Aktienfonds

Die Fondsmanager der besten Skandinavien Aktienfonds haben exklusiv fünf Fragen zu den Kennzahlen der Bewertungen, den Elementen im Investmentprozess sowie den Gewichtungen und Performances beantwortet. Erfahren Sie mehr über ihren Ausblick für die nordische Region hier: Funds | 30.05.2011 04:30 Uhr
e-fundresearch: "Which facts are relevant in the current market environment to value Scandinavian stocks?" Karl G. Høgtun und Kjell Morten Hjørnevik, Fondsmanager, "Carlson Fund Scandinavia"  (20.05.2011): "The earnings development of Scandinavian stocks is to a large extent a function of the global economy. Equity markets tend to go up when earnings growth is increasing and earnings growth is usually good when global growth is above trend. One should therefore look at global leading indicators in general and emerging markets because around 1/3 of the top-line for Scandinavian stocks are generated in EM. We prefer to value Scandinavian stocks using a range of different valuation methods including Price to Book ratio (earnings neutral ratio) and normalized Price to Earnings ratio (mean of real earnings for 5 and ten years). In summary, the market is now slightly in the inexpensive end of the valuation range especially if you compare to interest rates. In such situation equity markets tend to go up with earnings growth." Martin Nilsson, Fondsmanager, "Nordea 1 - Nordic Equity Fund" (27.05.2011): "We believe that the Scandinavian stocks have a quite compelling valuation. Investors that are negative to the Scandinavian markets points to the fact that the price paid for current earnings are high compared to the European market. We believe that this is true, but think it is much more relevant to look at enterprise value multiples, since these take into account the strong balance sheets in the Nordic region. On this metric valuation looks quite compelling. Nordic companies have been very proactive on taking out costs in the past couple of years. As the economies and sales of the companies recovered, we have seen a very strong margin expansion from a majority of the companies. We believe that one of the most relevant factors to take into consideration for the future is the ability of the companies to keep cost control (despite signs of inflation) and the outlook for sales growth. We therefore spend a lot of time meeting the management of the companies to make sure that they have the right focus and that the margins can be preserved or expanded."

Martin Ingelgård, Fondsmanager, "SEB Fd 1 - SEB Nordic Fund C EUR" (24.05.2011):
"- Strong emerging markets (EM) exposure will help top line growth. Many Nordic co’s have a very large exposure to EM. We have a large part of the Nordic Fund in stocks with large sales exposure to EM with some of the companies that have all their sales from EM.
- Many Nordic companies have an exposure towards raw materials. There are companies with sales to the metal and energy sectors but also to the mining industry.
- Nordic companies generally have more exposure to the economic cycles than European equities in general. You should expect greater volatility and higher larger swings in returns compared to European equities. The main reason for this is the larger share of industrial and energy stocks on the exchange while there are fewer utility and insurance companies in the Nordic region."

Nils Erik Holmqvist, Fondsmanager, "Danske Invest Nordic A" (18.05.2011): "As Europe is getting even more divided due to unfolding sovereign debt crises in the PIGS countries more emphasis will be put quality & transparency issues. This can even be seen when it comes to evaluating individual companies. The nordic  stock market is in this respect an highly interesting  as it hosts a large number of  world class quality companies, through which investors can take advantage of the growth taking place especially in the emerging markets."

Jonathan Ogier, Fondsmanager, "Fidelity Funds - Nordic A-SEK" (26.05.2011): "A theme across the whole of Europe has been that quarterly sales figures for companies are still on the increase but from the fourth quarter of 2010, earnings have started to disappoint. One reason is rising input costs, rising raw material prices being a major factor, as these are putting pressure on margins and earnings. In Scandinavia, the industrials (capital goods) and paper companies are particularly affected by this. But so are retailers like Hennes & Mauritz. Some companies are better placed than others to offset rising input costs.
Input costs and the impact it has is important as some companies margins are already back to peak 2007 peak levels or their long-term historical average. As the valuation becomes more demanding, you have to be comfortable that earnings shall continue to grow in order to warrant the premium some companies are starting to be valued upon. Similarly, some companies are late cyclicals and so their valuation is still below their average but the momentum is just about to start. Regarding valuation, I also look at momentum and quality."

e-fundresearch: "Which are the most important elements in your investment process?"

Karl G. Høgtun und Kjell Morten Hjørnevik, Fondsmanager, "Carlson Fund Scandinavia"  (20.05.2011): "The Scandinavian fund is a fundamental fund which puts a lot of resources into analysis. We use top-down analysis to identify which themes, sectors, styles and countries that look most attractive and select the best stocks within these views. We may however deviate from the top-down view if we find very attractive drives from our bottom-up analysis. We have a strong focus on valuation and seeks to identify and hold three kind of companies in our portfolio:
- Well-run companies with attractive market positions
- Companies with positive changes
- Companies which are takeover candidates."

Martin Nilsson, Fondsmanager, "Nordea 1 - Nordic Equity Fund" (27.05.2011): "We are very bottom-up driven in our approach and focus on fundamental valuation. We have an opinion on the fundamental value of each of our portfolio holdings and we use an in-house proprietary valuation model to determine this. In addition, we focus a lot of energy to find quality companies. Quality is quite difficult to define, but we have a range of factors we look for in order to identify such companies. Important factors are: that the company has a strong positioning within its industry and compared to competitors, that management is focused on generating shareholder value and that it has a clear business model. While analysing the company we put a high emphasis on understanding the value chain and the company´s positioning within the industry."

Martin Ingelgård, Fondsmanager, "SEB Fd 1 - SEB Nordic Fund C EUR" (24.05.2011):
"- We focus on four main areas in our process - 1, company visits 2, themes 3, valuation 4, quality
- Company visits are very important to us. We need to understand the factors driving revenue growth and profitability in the company. Company managements are very good at describing its business and its key drivers.
- We also focus on themes in our process. A theme could be emerging markets exposure or energy. Such a theme is filtered down to a handful of shares we invest in.
- Valuation is always important to us in deciding what stocks to invest heavily into. We use several ways of valuing stocks.
- In our process we have incorporated a quality filter in order to avoid poorly run companies. We would like to invest in companies with proven track record, strong business franchise and with a good solid management team."

Nils Erik Holmqvist, Fondsmanager, "Danske Invest Nordic A" (18.05.2011): "Our investment process is based on three pillars Quality – Delta - Valuation, which we address when evaluating a stock. First we look for quality. By Quality we mean market leadership as it, in most cases, is a result of a credible business model and works as a measure of good track record. In order for a company to perform we also need a catalyst which we call Delta. Delta can be internal or external. By internal we mean changes taking place within the company (new products, new markets, management changes etc), by external we mean changes taking place outside the company including megatrends affecting the business in which the company operates, changes in the legislation, changes in the competitive landscape, changes in supply/demand balance etc. The key is to understand how the company can monetize on these changes. The third pillar is Valuation, which we use as a reality check to assess what the market is implicitly pricing in. We use peer group valuation using valuation metrics including EV / EBITDA, PEG etc, but we are keeping it fairly simple. When we find companies with appealing Quality and Delta criteria we are willing to accept a slightly richer valuation, but still not willing to overpay."

Jonathan Ogier, Fondsmanager, "Fidelity Funds - Nordic A-SEK" (26.05.2011): "I have three criteria, Quality, Momentum and Valuation.
Quality – Are the long term fundamentals of the business attractive?
Momentum – Will earning beat expectations over the next 6-12 months?
Valuation – Is the stock attractively valued versus its long term earnings power?
A stock must rate highly on 2 of the above three criteria in order for me to own it."

Andreas Detterfelt, Fondsmanager, "SEB Fd 2 - SEB Nordic Focus Fund C EUR": "The team takes large active positions with huge deviations from the benchmark. Expected tracking error is above of 5% versus its underlying benchmark. The fund is comprised of a concentrated portfolio of 25 holdings, and each stock comes in at around 4%. Each sub-portfolio manager picks five equally weighted stocks at his discretion, and the risk-diversification element is lifted to the top-level portfolio. The unique multi-manager approach combines, on one hand, the proximity, local knowledge and continuity of local managers with, on the other hand, diversification across the Nordic region and the individual style of each fund manager."

Per Trygg, Fondsmanager, "SEB Nordic Small Cap Fund C Cap": "The fund is characterized by a bottom-up strategy, where genuine stock selection is based on fundamental company analysis. In order to identify attractive companies, the team conducts intensive field work in the Nordic small cap universe. The research focuses on identifying value creating companies with an attractive valuation. The team prefers quality companies with strong market positions and above average return on investments. Management quality and strategy are also key criteria in the research."

e-fundresearch: "Which over- and under-weights do you currently hold?"

Karl G. Høgtun und Kjell Morten Hjørnevik, Fondsmanager, "Carlson Fund Scandinavia"  (20.05.2011): "We are overweighted in the sectors Energy, Consumer Discretionary and IT, while we are underweighted in the sectors Industrials, Consumer Staples and Financials (Investment Companies and Real estate). This is a function of our strategy framework, where we look at a number of factors including macro outlook, valuation and earnings momentum."

Martin Nilsson, Fondsmanager, "Nordea 1 - Nordic Equity Fund" (27.05.2011):
"Overweights:

Yara - one of the world´s largest producers of nitrogen based minerals and fertilizers. We see the valuation to be attractive and like the long-term story.
SKF - the world´s largest producers of rolling bearings. The company has an attractive valuation, strong balance sheet and a fantastic position to grow their business world-wide.

It´s not Nordea Policy to comment on stocks underweights."

Martin Ingelgård, Fondsmanager, "SEB Fd 1 - SEB Nordic Fund C EUR" (24.05.2011):
"- We disclose our holdings quarterly thus the answer is describing the portfolio as end of March. This is to comply with regulations.
- End of March we were positive on the energy, materials and industrial sectors. We were less keen on property, diversified financials and pharmaceuticals.
- Our largest overweight positions were A P Möller Maersk (shipping/energy), SKF (industrial) and Swedbank (retail bank)."

Nils Erik Holmqvist, Fondsmanager, "Danske Invest Nordic A" (18.05.2011): "In relative terms (our benchmark is VINX Benchmark Capped) on stock level our top three over weights are: DNBNor (Norwegian bank), Outotec (Finnish engineering stock exposed to the global mining capex cycle), Autoliv (Swedish worldwide leader in automotive safety) and Subsea 7 (Norwegian oil service company). Our top 3 under weights are: Svenska Handelsbanken (Swedish bank), Investor (Swedish Investment Company) and ABB (Swiss/Swedish engineering company)."

Jonathan Ogier, Fondsmanager, "Fidelity Funds - Nordic A-SEK" (26.05.2011): "Sector wise, the fund is overweight Industrials, Health Care (overweight Novo Nordisk, Elekta) and underweight basic materials and technology (underweight Nokia). This is relative to the FTSE Nordic Index, the fund’s reference benchmark.
Regarding some of the large Nordic weights in the index, I am underweight Nokia, Statoil, H&M, Altas Copco. I am overweight Schindler (rather than owning Koné), Outokumpu, Elekta, Millicom and Assa Abloy."

Andreas Detterfelt, Fondsmanager, "SEB Fd 2 - SEB Nordic Focus Fund C EUR": "The team has a broad mandate to invest in equities traded on all Nordic stock exchanges (in Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland and Iceland). The Swedish market represents approximately 40% of the Nordic region´s market cap. The Nordic stock exchanges comprise a total of some 850 companies."

Per Trygg, Fondsmanager, "SEB Nordic Small Cap Fund C Cap": "The fund is actively managed and invests mainly in small cap equities and equity-related securities listed in the Nordic countries (Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway and Iceland). The small cap universe is defined as the stocks that make up the bottom 20 percent of the total market cap and comprise of some 500 companies. The Swedish small cap stocks represent approximately 35% of the investment universe´s market cap."

Frage 4

e-fundresearch: "Please comment on the performance and risk parameters of your fund in the current year as well as over the past 3 and 5 years."

Karl G. Høgtun und Kjell Morten Hjørnevik, Fondsmanager, "Carlson Fund Scandinavia"  (20.05.2011): "The most relevant period to look at is the last 3,5 years for the current team. In that period, we have outperformed the market substantially – with contribution from several sectors. This year, the fund is slightly behind the index. Some of the stocks we believe in have not performed as we had hoped for so far."

Martin Nilsson, Fondsmanager, "Nordea 1 - Nordic Equity Fund" (27.05.2011): "Please find attached a table with the performances of the fund on different years including the 3 and 5 years performance, to better understand on last year performance please find attached the enclosed 4 quarterly updates.

Nordea 1 - Nordic Equity Fund, Q1 / 2010

Nordea 1 - Nordic Equity Fund, Q2 / 2010

Nordea 1 - Nordic Equity Fund, Q3 / 2010

Nordea 1 - Nordic Equity Fund, Q4 / 2010

Martin Ingelgård, Fondsmanager, "SEB Fd 1 - SEB Nordic Fund C EUR" (24.05.2011): "Nordic region have over the last few years experienced great volatility, more so in the Nordic region than in the rest of Europe. The reason is describe above. The tracking error realized as end of March for the 24 month period is 3,1% with a standard deviation of 17%."

Nils Erik Holmqvist, Fondsmanager, "Danske Invest Nordic A" (18.05.2011): "I have been the responsible portfolio manager for this fund since January 1st 2009 (ca 2,5 yrs) and have been able to generate yearly excess return for 2009 & 2010 and also for the whole period.
2011 ytd: we are currently lagging the index ytd mainly as a result of so far disappointing performance from some of the relative over weights including Electrolux, Autoliv & Outotec. We have been able to some extent compensate this by over weighting Sampo and under weighting Nokia. On risk parameters with regards to volatility we are slightly above market level (22,9 vs. 21,3) as the fund’s beta is currently 1,07.
3 yrs: Different manager
5 yrs: Different manager."

Jonathan Ogier, Fondsmanager, "Fidelity Funds - Nordic A-SEK" (26.05.2011): "I have managed the fund since 01/05/2009. Since then to 30/04/2011, the fund has risen 44.88% versus the benchmark’s 49.93% (SEK). This is a good absolute performance. The most recent performance is good, the last three months (to 30/04/2011), the fund is up 4.03%, versus 4.15% benchmark."

Frage 5

e-fundresearch: "What is your outlook for the Nordic region compared to overall Europe?"

Karl G. Høgtun und Kjell Morten Hjørnevik, Fondsmanager, "Carlson Fund Scandinavia"  (20.05.2011): "Historically Scandinavian equities have outperformed European Equities and we think this will be the case going forward as well. There are several reasons why we think this. One of the most important reasons is that all the Scandinavian countries have prudent financial policies with low debt levels. The region is characterized with low political and economic risk - the conditions for economic growth is healthy. Each of the countries are small open economies with long traditions in foreign trade. Companies in Scandinavia seek high growth exposure for their products and as mentioned earlier around 1/3 of their top-line comes from Emerging Markets."

Martin Nilsson, Fondsmanager, "Nordea 1 - Nordic Equity Fund" (27.05.2011): "In general, we don’t have a strong top-down view on a relative basis. However, we do note that the Nordic companies are currently benefitting from very strongly growing domestic economies as well as strong demand from emerging markets. The latter is quite important since the Nordic companies are quite export oriented and have a high exposure to markets such as China. By nature, they have less exposure to the “troubled” countries in Southern Europe and if the current trends continue, we believe that the Nordic region will continue to perform well compared to the rest of Europe."

Martin Ingelgård, Fondsmanager, "SEB Fd 1 - SEB Nordic Fund C EUR" (24.05.2011):
"- We are positive to the Nordic region from a European investor perspective. There is more potential in the Nordic Fund also going forward, it’s not too late to invest.

- We expect the Nordic region to record a very strong GDP growth of some 3,3 % for 2011 and 2,7 % in 2012. This should compare to a more mediocre 2,2 % in 2011 and 2012 for the Euro zone.

- The macro environment for the Nordic region continues to be very benign compared to the rest of Europe. Fiscal policy is still very benign in the Nordic area.

- We expect interest rates to continue gradually upward in Sweden and Norway. Denmark and Finland are more steered by the ECB outlook.

- We expect a slight strengthening of the Swedish and Norwegian currencies which will benefit an investor in the Nordic Fund denominated in Euros.

- The difficulties many countries in Europe experience today are very painful. In the late 80’s and early 90’s similar difficulties was apparent in the Nordic region. High unemployment and collapsing property prices led to a financial crisis and ultimately a government budget cleansing and major cutbacks in expenditures. This painful experience is still present in many of our political and business leaders today and explains why the Nordic region stands out as a good example today."

Nils Erik Holmqvist, Fondsmanager, "Danske Invest Nordic A" (18.05.2011): "We think that the investors are starting to consider Europe as a more fragmented investment universe, with very different type of companies/economies, putting the nordics in a very favorable position. As an investor you can find all the relevant sectors well represented enabling you to play different themes through high quality companies. History has also shown us the superiority of the Nordic stock markets when it comes to long term performance."

Jonathan Ogier, Fondsmanager, "Fidelity Funds - Nordic A-SEK" (26.05.2011): "It is positive. 2010 was a very good year as the Nordic countries were the best performers of the European countries with the sovereign debt crisis of the periphery of Europe dominating. Nordic countries have strong debt/GDP ratios and sound public finances. At the beginning of the year, the Nordic region started to underperform, the emerging market theme was out of favour and the periphery of Europe outperformed. Ytd to 25/05 we have seen the Nordic region catch up.

There are a lot of Nordic companies that I am invested in that are able to offset higher input costs. Nordic companies have global reach so should be able to get exposure to where the world is growing quickest (Developing World rather than Developed World). Many companies in the health care sector for example are quality secular growth companies with high barriers to entry and thus relatively immune from developing world competition. There is also the oil services sector and we are just at the beginning of a very strong new orders cycle. The global growth theme is what shall drive Nordic equities.

In conclusion, the cherry on the cake is that the sovereign debt problems of the south of Europe shall not go away and European markets shall remain bipolar, the core versus the periphery. The Nordic countries strong finances shall comfort investors but is not the main reason to be invested in the region. Over time it has been demonstrated that strong GDP growth, low deficit figures have a relatively low correlation to country stock market returns. 2010’s outperformance of the Nordic region over the rest of Europe was exceptional because the sovereign debt crisis was new and the correlation was for once abnormally high.

The woes of the periphery accentuated Nordic equities being in favour when the region always performs strongly when the economic cycle leaves recession and moves into recovery, for 2011 and beyond I expect the Nordic region to perform well as the world economy gradually improves and we remain in the recovery and upward trend, although the trend shall be less strong. The importance is that it remains intact in an upward trend however gradual that slope may be."

Alle Daten per 16.05.2011:

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