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Die besten Lateinamerika Aktienfonds

Die Fondsmanager der besten Lateinamerika Aktienfonds haben exklusiv fünf Fragen zu den Bewertungs-Kennzahlen, den wichtigsten Elementen im Investmentprozess, sowie den Gewichtungen, Performances und dem Marktpotenzial beantwortet. Funds | 06.06.2011 04:30 Uhr
e-fundresearch: "Welche Kennzahlen sind zur Bewertung lateinamerikanischer Aktien derzeit wichtig?"

Anders Damgaard , Chief Portfolio Manager, "ISI Latin America Equities" (30.05.2011): "Wichtig sind die Kennzahlen für die Inflationsentwicklung in Brasilien, das Wachstum in China und in den USA infolge der Rohstoffpreisentwicklung. Aktienseitig ist es wichtig, dass die Margen auch zukünftig gegeben sind." Nick Robinson, Fondsmanager, "Aberdeen Global - Latin American Equity S2 Acc" (31.05.2011): "First, Latin America is no longer a region plagued by weak political systems and economies. Most governments have embraced fiscal and monetary orthodoxy. Economic fundamentals have improved. In addition, the region benefits from favourable demographics. Its young and growing population, and continued urbanisation and industrialisation, should drive domestic growth for many years to come. More importantly, the companies have also gotten better. Debt levels have fallen, profitability has improved and dividend payouts are increasing. We are also seeing a steady flow of well-managed companies coming to the market, which bodes well for the future. The emphasis on corporate transparency has been further underscored by the launch of Brazil’s Novo Mercado – a segment of the main exchange reserved for companies with higher standards of corporate governance."

Lionel Bernard, Fondsmanager, "Amundi Funds Latin America Equities AU C" (27.05.2011): "When we value stocks, we mainly focus, over 5 years forward, on P/E, EV/EBITDA & dividend yield."

 

Angel Ortiz, Co-Fondsmanager, "Fidelity Funds - Latin America A-USD" (31.05.2011): "Latin America has lagged the broader emerging market universe recently. In particular, the dominant country in the region, Brazil, has disappointed from a market return perspective amid headwinds such as a strong currency and rising inflation. However, despite the underperformance, we remain bullish on the long term factors that are driving economic growth in the region, specifically in the commodities, credit and consumer areas.
Importantly, while we have moved up the market cap scale given the backdrop, we believe that in such a disparate universe, there can be no single way of valuing a company regardless of the market cycle. So we use a wide range of valuation approaches, including those which may be considered as value-orientated and some that are more growth orientated. From a fundamental earnings point of view, we try to determine a firm’s intrinsic value by conducting a detailed analysis of its industry, its key performance drivers and its financial position. Among the more directly measurable items that we look at are: free cash flows, balance sheet strength, intrinsic earnings power and return on equity. These are evergreen valuation techniques and are consistent with our bottom up philosophy."

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Vielseitige Emerging Markets Expertise Von Aktien bis hin zu Local & Hard Currency: Das Pictet Emerging Markets Team verfügt über jahrelange Erfahrung in den globalen Schwellenländer-Märkten und bietet Investoren attraktive Zugänge mittels unterschiedlicher Strategien. » Weitere Informationen

Chris Palmer, Fondsmanager, "Gartmore SICAV Latin American EUR A" (01.06.2011): "The key drivers for Latin America have traditionally been the growth of the global economy; Latin America has historically been sensitive to perceived changes in the outlook for global industrial production. In recent years demand for industrial commodities and agricultural products by the US and Europe had been surpassed by new demand from China and India. In Brazil in particular, China has become and important trading and investment partner.  More recent macroeconomic policy successes have allowed domestic consumption to add more ‘balance’ to Latin America’s economic drivers, as a new middle class has emerged throughout the region."

Dr. Mark Mobius, Fondsmanager, "Templeton Latin America A (Ydis) USD" (30.05.2011): "Die lateinamerikanischen Märkte wiesen im April unterschiedliche Ergebnisse aus. Der MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index beschloss den Monat in US-Dollar mit einem Plus von 0,51%. In US-Dollar verzeichneten Chile, Kolumbien und Mexiko Gewinne, getragen von stärkeren Lokalwährungen und höheren Rohstoffpreisen, Peru und Brasilien verbuchten dagegen Verluste. Die Inflation blieb für viele Länder ein Problem. Die Zentralbanken größerer Märkte verschärften ihre Geldpolitik weiter, um die Inflation zu bremsen. In Brasilien blieb die Binnennachfrage kräftig. Die Einzelhandelsumsätze legten im Februar gegenüber 2010 um 8,2% zu und damit fast so wie im Januar mit 8,3% Wachstum. Die Verbraucherpreise erhöhten sich im März im Jahresvergleich aufgrund höherer Nahrungsmittel- und Transportkosten und blieben gerade noch im Zielband der Zentralbank von 2,5% bis 6,5%. Die Bank hob ihren Leitzins daraufhin im April um 25 Basispunkte auf 12% an, um den Inflationsdruck zu dämpfen – zum dritten Mal in diesem Jahr. Zur Verbesserung der Handels- und Investitionsbeziehungen und der regionalen Sicherheit traf sich US-Präsident Barack Obama bei seinem Brasilienbesuch im März mit Präsidentin Dilma Rousseff. Dabei wurden mehrere bilaterale Verträge auf Gebieten wie Handel und Luftverkehr unterzeichnet. Außerdem fuhr Präsidentin Rousseff im April nach China, wo sie mit Präsident Hu Jintao eine Reihe von Vereinbarungen über Zusammenarbeit, Wirtschaft und Investitionen in Bereichen wie Energie, Landwirtschaft, Verteidigung und Technologie schloss."

Søren Nemec, Fondsmanager, "Jyske Invest Latin American Equities" (31.05.2011): "We use our investment process in all our funds and in all market environments. But we have a risk overlay, that can tell us, when our investment process is working very well and when it is not working so well. When the investment process is working we take full exposure to the factors in our investment process. When the investment process doesn`t work we will take positions that are closer to benchmark."

Donnchadh Lynch, Fondsmanager, "KBC Equity Latin America Cap" (30.05.2011): "There is higher risk and volatility associated with investing in emerging markets such as Latin America. The KBC Equity Fund Latin America is a passively managed fund which does not seek to find and exploit any mispricing in securities. The fund aims to fully replicate where possible the holdings of the MSCI Latin America."

Ian Simmons, Fondsmanager, "Magna Latin American A EUR" (27.05.2011): "Inflation and the policy response are the factors concerning investors in Latin America today. A consideration of how a company´s revenue and bottom line will be impacted by higher interest rates and higher costs (both labour and raw materials) has been important in identifying stocks that perform well in the last 6 months.  We continue to judge stocks on their valuation relative not only to their peer group but also their own history. It is noticeable in Brazil that while the market has been broadly flat for 18 months, many companies have continued to deliver strong earnings growth and therefore trade at lower multiples today than in the past 2 years. With an uncertain global backdrop thanks to the end of QE2 and debt problems in the EU periphery, investors have a greater appetite for companies generating cashflow and with downside protection so these are also important factors to consider when we build our models."

Frage 2

e-fundresearch: "Welche Elemente sind die wichtigsten in Ihrem Investmentprozess?"

Anders Damgaard , Chief Portfolio Manager, "ISI Latin America Equities" (30.05.2011): "Die Weltkonjunktur legt voraussichtlich eine Wachstumspause ein. Daher bevorzugen wir derzeit Unternehmen mit stabilen Erträgen und/oder Unternehmen, die ihre Kosten im Griff haben."

 

Nick Robinson, Fondsmanager, "Aberdeen Global - Latin American Equity S2 Acc" (31.05.2011): "The Aberdeen equity process dates from the early 1990s. The process is continuously evolving but its competitive advantage derives mainly from the consistency of our approach, and the disciplines that we adhere to, irrespective of market conditions.

Our Global Emerging Markets team is located in London and Singapore with investment managers also based in Bangkok, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur and Sao Paulo. The team’s bottom-up investment process begins with a few basic rules: never invest in stocks we haven´t visited; never feel obliged to buy a stock because it appears we should (for reasons of size or perceived value as a market proxy, say). Team members conduct hundreds of company visits per year then duly document these meetings and undertake rigorous analysis of the business model. We are firm believers in rotating company visits around the team as cross-coverage of securities is vital in ensuring objectivity.

We avoid businesses we don´t understand or ones with discriminatory shareholder structures. Working from these precepts, stocks become almost self-selecting (provided we have done the essential investigative work). The more difficult decision is how much to pay. Here we place little value in ephemeral events or market ´noise´ and more on factors that will ensure we can add value in a demonstrable and consistent way over time. Our focus therefore is on long-term returns rather than short-term gains."

Lionel Bernard, Fondsmanager, "Amundi Funds Latin America Equities AU C" (27.05.2011):
"x Fundamental analysis
– Anticipating changes rather than relying on past correlations
x Research-based judgmental decisions
– Based on the constant re-evaluation of outlook vs. valuations and vs. risks
x Risk diversification
– 3 sources of alpha generation : country selection, sector allocation & stock picking
– Large number of holdings
x Medium-term investment horizon
– Leading to a low portfolio turnover."

Angel Ortiz, Co-Fondsmanager, "Fidelity Funds - Latin America A-USD" (31.05.2011): "60% of our investment process is dependant on stock fundamentals, where we look at each and every company on its ability to generate sustainably high returns on equity and other similar metrics. Our investment decisions are usually made with a 2 year cycle in mind, which is underlined by the relatively turnover of the fund. Furthermore, 30% of our process is based on valuations. Price targets are set on each and every position, so once a stock reaches what we consider to be its fair valuation, the position is sold. Finally, only 10% of the process is dependent on macro and sentiment factors, which again confirms how we stress bottom up analysis."

Chris Palmer, Fondsmanager, "Gartmore SICAV Latin American EUR A" (01.06.2011): "Our investment process is focused on identifying investment opportunities in which the growth prospects have not yet been identified by the ‘consensus investor’. For us this means looking for new industry themes and trends and then identifying the companies most likely to best take advantage of growth opportunities. As we are often early into a new idea, our views need to be backed by our own research."

Dr. Mark Mobius, Fondsmanager, "Templeton Latin America A (Ydis) USD" (30.05.2011): "Unsere Anlagestrategie stützt sich auf einen langfristigen Bottom-up-Ansatz, der auf der Analyse der fundamentalen Voraussetzungen von Unternehmen beruht. Bei der Bewertung eines Unternehmens berücksichtigen wir eine Vielzahl von Kriterien wie Ertragsaussichten, Kapitalrentabilität, Margen, Substanzwert, Wachstum und Cashflow-Potenzial. Außerdem fließen in unsere Anlageentscheidungen die potenziellen Auswirkungen von Inflation ein, vor allem bei Nahrungsmitteln. Bei der Ermittlung von Anlagechancen achten wir auf zwei Faktoren: Zum einen interessieren wir uns für Unternehmen mit erfolgreichen Marken, die bei steigenden Inputkosten die Preise erhöhen können, zum anderen für Firmen mit einem guten Vertriebsnetz, um ihre Verbraucher zu erreichen."

Søren Nemec, Fondsmanager, "Jyske Invest Latin American Equities" (31.05.2011): "© VAMOS – this is how we select shares
We believe in active management - and we believe that a disciplined and structured investment process results in a higher return over time. For the short term, shares may trade at a price that deviates widely from their fair value. Yet we believe that markets will in the long term reward companies which generate higher cash flows. The financial markets will always be affected by investors´ short-term reaction at any given time. But it means that an investor who invests for the long term can find good opportunities for picking up cheap shares with potential.

Shares for long-term investments must meet three requirements:
• We can buy the share at a price below what we regard as its fair value; to evaluate a share we look at traditional key figures as well as cash-flow models (Valuation);
• The company´s earnings estimates are upgraded regularly, and earnings exceed estimates (MOmentum).
• The company must show high and steadily rising earnings (Strength).

Quantitative screening and qualitative selection of shares
Our investment process is a focused bottom-up process which rests on quantitative screening of shares and subsequent qualitative assessment of each of the shares selected. The process, which has been divided into three steps, is run every week to ensure the best possible portfolio mix at all times.

The quantitative screening is based on a combination of factors which in 17 out of 19 years had a positive effect on the return. But investors should note that past performance and results are not a reliable indicator of future performance."

Donnchadh Lynch, Fondsmanager, "KBC Equity Latin America Cap" (30.05.2011): "The KBC Equity Fund Latin America is a semi-passively constructed fund that tracks the MSCI Latin America index. The fund seeks to invest in all, or a representative number, of the securities within the index. Where it is not possible for the fund to hold the same direct lines, the fund will seek to gain exposure through the use of ADRs and GDRs. In order to reduce the tracking error, the fund seeks to be fully invested at all times. A relevant tracker may be included in the fund for cash management purposes. The tracker is limited to a maximum amount of 5% of the fund."

Ian Simmons, Fondsmanager, "Magna Latin American A EUR" (27.05.2011): "Our bottom-up stockpicking approach is at the core of the Charlemagne investment process. We will never invest in a stock without having met the management first, and we spend the majority of our time conducting rigorous due diligence and building our own in-house forecasts. The fund managers are also the analysts. We seek to profit from inefficiencies in stock pricing often generated by low quality or absence of sell side research. Portfolios are constructed within a disciplined risk management framework."

Frage 3

e-fundresearch: "Welche Über- und Untergewichtungen sind derzeit im Fonds umgesetzt?"

Anders Damgaard, Chief Portfolio Manager, "ISI Latin America Equities" (30.05.2011): "Untergewichtet sind derzeit Roh-, Hilfs- und Betriebsstoffe, und übergewichtet sind Telekommunikation und Energieversorger."

 


Nick Robinson, Fondsmanager, "Aberdeen Global - Latin American Equity S2 Acc" (31.05.2011): "Largest country positions versus benchmark
Overweight
•  Mexico –  the country offers both well-run companies and relative value, particularly among the mid-cap stocks. Latin America´s second-biggest economy is also forecast to grow by around 4% in 2011, after a solid recovery in 2010.
• Argentina – our non-benchmark exposure to this market results from holding a single stock, Tenaris, which meets our quality criteria and is attractively valued.

Underweight
• Colombia – valuations in this market have remained challenging compared with its global peers.
• Peru – we are underweight to this market largely because we have difficulty finding stocks that meet our quality and valuation criteria.

Largest sector positions versus benchmark
Overweight
• Industrials – we are overweight this sector as there are numerous attractively priced companies that have healthy business models, good management and, in many cases, are beneficiaries of domestic or regional economic growth.  
• Energy – we see this sector more as a consumer play, benefiting from rising domestic consumption of oil and gas and, in some cases, from privatisation, restructuring and further market liberalisation.
• Consumer discretionary – our overweight to this sector is due to our optimism over the growing domestic demand story.  

Underweight
• Materials – we remain wary of the sector, where businesses tend to be cyclical and do not fit in with our long-term, steady growth investment style.
• Utilities – while it is a relatively defensive sector, it generally involves more regulatory risk.
• Telecom services – we are underweight the sector because of concerns over the long-term sustainable competitive advantage of fixed-line operators."

Lionel Bernard, Fondsmanager, "Amundi Funds Latin America Equities AU C" (27.05.2011):

Angel Ortiz, Co-Fondsmanager, "Fidelity Funds - Latin America A-USD" (31.05.2011): "On a country level, we are fairly neutral to the benchmark. We have an underweight position in Chile and an overweight in Colombia. We find Chilean valuations a little stretched due to the nature of its pension fund system, while we see a lot of potential in Colombia, which has opened itself up to foreign investors.
On a sector level, we are biased towards financials, which we believe is the most attractive means of participating in the sweeping structural changes of strong domestic consumption and rising real wages. In comparison, we have a fairly low weighting in the consumer sectors as we believe such stocks are expensive at current levels. Finally, we are overweight the materials sectors, but have a relatively low weighting to the steel names, which are struggling amid cheap import competition.
It probably worth labouring the point that such positioning, both on a country and a sector level, are a consequence of bottom up stock selection rather than a specific target."

Chris Palmer, Fondsmanager, "Gartmore SICAV Latin American EUR A" (01.06.2011): "Please see the factsheet of the fund."

Dr. Mark Mobius, Fondsmanager, "Templeton Latin America A (Ydis) USD" (30.05.2011): "In Bezug auf die Anlagethemen setzen wir weiter auf Verbraucher und Rohstoffe. Das Anwachsen der Mittelschicht und das nachlassende Bevölkerungswachstum haben zu steigenden Pro-Kopf-Einkommen und zu mehr Nachfrage nach Konsumprodukten geführt. Darauf beruht wiederum ein positiver Ausblick für das Ertragswachstum konsumabhängiger Unternehmen. Wir interessieren uns für Chancen in konsumgüterbezogenen Bereichen wie Autos und Einzelhandel, aber auch für Dienstleistungen im Finanz- und Banksegment. Rohstoffunternehmen sprechen uns ebenfalls an, zum Beispiel in den Bereichen Energie, Bergbau oder Landwirtschaft, da wir infolge anhaltender Nachfrage und des relativ unelastischen Angebots weiterhin mit einem langfristigen Aufwärtstrend der Rohstoffpreise rechnen. Allerdings dürfte es im Zuge dessen zu einer gewissen Volatilität kommen."

Søren Nemec, Fondsmanager, "Jyske Invest Latin American Equities" (31.05.2011):
Overweight positions
1. Millicom
2. Grupo Mexico
3. Fomento Economico
4. Ambev
5. Ecopetrol
6. Obrascom Huarte
7. Genomma Lab
8. American Movil
9. Tegma
10. Credit Corp

Underweight positions
1. Empresas
2. Cemex
3. OGX Petrolo e Gas
4. Grupo Financiero Banorte
5. CCR
6. Usiminas
7. Empresas
8. Sociedad Quimica y Minera
9. Telefonos de Mexico
10. Redecard

Donnchadh Lynch, Fondsmanager, "KBC Equity Latin America Cap" (30.05.2011): "Due to liquidity and tax restrictions and in order for KBC Equity Fund Latin America to efficiently track the MSCI Latin America, the fund is gains its exposure to Chilean and Peruvian markets by investing in a representative number of securities in each country; As such the fund overweight in several Chilean securities (Banco Santander Chile, Cia Cervecerias Unidas, Corpbanca, Endesa, Enersis and Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile) and Peruvian securities (Credicorp and Southern Copper) relative to the MSCI Latin America Index."

Ian Simmons, Fondsmanager, "Magna Latin American A EUR" (27.05.2011): "Our country and sector over/under weights are simply the result of highest conviction ideas at the stock level. However, there are some themes which we can identify. We believe that the long term structural story in Latin America of domestically driven growth will continue. As such we are overweight the consumer discretionary sector with exposure to the growing middle class and formal economy through diverse sectors such as healthcare, education, insurance, homebuilding and retail. The biggest country overweight is currently Mexico where we see the beginnings of a recovery in domestic demand. Some stocks in Mexico also have up to half their operations across the Latin American region so offer interesting ways to play the strong economies of the peripheral countries. The major underweight is in materials, where we do not think valuations are attractive in the oil, steel and pulp sector."

Frage 4

e-fundresearch: "Bitte kommentieren Sie die Performance- und Risikokennzahlen Ihres Fonds im laufenden Jahr und in den letzten 3 bzw. 5 Jahren."

Anders Damgaard, Chief Portfolio Manager, "ISI Latin America Equities" (30.05.2011): "Zum 30. März 2011 lag der Fondsertrag laufenden Jahres etwa 1 Prozentpunkt unter dem der Benchmark. Auf Sicht von 3 Jahren liegt der Ertrag 9 Prozentpunkte und auf Sicht von 5 Jahren 7,5 Prozentpunkte über dem Benchmark-Ertrag.
Das Portfolio-Beta beträgt in der Regel etwa 0,95 und der Tracking Error etwa 5."

Nick Robinson, Fondsmanager, "Aberdeen Global - Latin American Equity S2 Acc" (31.05.2011): "We had a very good year in 2010, with our Aberdeen Global - Latin American Equity Fund up 24%, beating the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America 10/40 by close to 7%. The strong performance was driven entirely by stock selection, notably in Brazil, where our investments in dental insurer OdontoPrev, department store operator Lojas Renner and energy giant Ultrapar served us particularly well. In addition, our Chilean holdings, retailer S.A.C.I Falabella and lender Banco Santander-Chile, benefited from solid domestic economic growth and good operating results. We also have a large exposure to Mexico, which outperformed the region.

This year, Latin American equities have had a bumpy start. The ongoing unrest in the Middle East and North Africa has made investors nervous. Concerns over China’s tightening measures and rising inflation have added to the uncertainty. So far, however, our fund has continued to do well. As of the end of April, we were 2 percentage points ahead of the benchmark thanks again to strong stock selection. Our holdings in Brazil, notably steelmaker Usiminas performed well, as did Lojas Renner and Ultrapar. Our investments in Mexico also contributed positively, while the lack of exposure to Peru, which performed poorly, proved beneficial."

Lionel Bernard, Fondsmanager, "Amundi Funds Latin America Equities AU C" (27.05.2011): "Thanks to our approach (please refer to question number 2), we were able to provide satisfying outperformance with reasonable TE, on a regular basis."

 

Angel Ortiz, Co-Fondsmanager, "Fidelity Funds - Latin America A-USD" (31.05.2011): "Alex Duffy and myself took over the management of this fund from April 2009, so I can only speak from then. The performance since our tenure has been strong, largely due to stock selection. Year to date, performance has been a little less impressive, but we are still ahead of most of our competitors. In terms of risk, we generally keep the beta of the fund around one and maintain the tracking error between the 3% and 6% levels. Individual stock bets are typically +/- 3% overweight/underweight the benchmark. Sector bets are actively managed, but typically kept to +/- 4%-5% overweight/underweight for risk control purposes. Importantly, we run the fund against a 5% capped benchmark, which reduces the fund´s exposure to companies like Petrobras, Vale, Itau Unibanco, Bradesco and America Movil, which make up around 40% of the standard MSCI Latin America index and therefore usually represent an outsized proportion of risk for potential investors."

Chris Palmer, Fondsmanager, "Gartmore SICAV Latin American EUR A" (01.06.2011): "The fund year to date, through the end of May is trading roughly in line with the overall return of the MSCI Latin America Index. Returns this year have been volatile as investor sentiment towards emerging markets has been negatively impacted by concerns over China’s growth outlook, commodities volatility, and the recurring instability related to Greece. For several quarters we have favored Mexico over Brazil as Mexico has fewer problems with inflation, and hence is enjoying a period of relatively lower interest rates and better liquidity conditions. We have a positive stance on Industrial stocks, which include infrastructure plays. Typically we do not exceed 5% overweight or underweight any particular sector or country, our process is really focused on stock picking and adding value through research.

Over the past three years through the end of May the Fund modestly outperformed the benchmark return. The biggest impact on the returns over this period was the 2008 Crisis, which was still heavily impacting the performance of Latin America through early 2009.  The biggest surprise for performance was the outperformance of Mexico and Chile versus Brazil over this period. Our overweight stance in Mexico would have boosted performance, and returns were further aided by strong gains in the portfolio’s consumer related investments throughout the region.

Over the past five years for the end of May the Fund has underperformed the Latin America Index due to a concentrated period of underperformance from May 2007 to May 2008. This underperformance is due in large part to the huge outperformance of the largest stock in Latin America, Petrobras, which rose over 130% during the period. Due to UCITs regulations the Fund cannot hold more than 10% in any single issuer, and Petrobras rose quickly to over 20% of the index, forcing the manager to be technically underweight. This technical position has reversed in the past three years and Petrobras has now fallen to a more manageable benchmark weight of close to 12%."

Dr. Mark Mobius, Fondsmanager, "Templeton Latin America A (Ydis) USD" (30.05.2011): "In den drei Monaten bis zum 30. April 2011 rentierte der Templeton Latin America Fund in US-Dollar netto 4,44% (-3,52% in EUR). Fast alle Sektoren trugen zur absoluten Fonds-Performance bei. Besondere Stärke demonstrierten nichtzyklische Konsum- und Finanzwerte.
Wir sind für Lateinamerika nach wie vor zuversichtlich, da wir davon ausgehen, dass die starken Fundamentaldaten längerfristig für nachhaltiges Wirtschaftswachstum sorgen werden. Unsere optimistische Sicht stützt sich auf die Stärke der lateinamerikanischen Märkte in verschiedenen Bereichen, unter anderem: Produktivität, Konsum, Pro-Kopf-Einkommen, Rohstoffe und Devisenreserven.
Lateinamerikanische Aktien hatten in diesem Jahr zuvor einen leichten Rückgang verzeichnet. Wir versuchen jedoch, über kurzfristige Volatilität hinauszublicken und gezielt reizvolle Chancen zu nutzen, die sich in solchen Zeiten bieten können. Langfristig dürften lateinamerikanische Aktien weiter aufwärts tendieren. Wir erkennen nach wie vor Wertpotenzial und versuchen, die nach unserem Dafürhalten interessantesten Schnäppchen auszuwählen, die über einen fünfjährigen Anlagehorizont hohes Ertragspotenzial aufweisen."

Søren Nemec, Fondsmanager, "Jyske Invest Latin American Equities" (31.05.2011): "Performance over the last 5 years have been + 84,97%. The performance is based on good stock selections in sectors like Consumer Discretionary and Telecom Service, while stock selections in sectors like Consumer Staples and Energy have been poor. On specific stocks Grupo Electra and Banco do Brasil have made huge contributions to the performance. Performance over the last 3 years have only been +4,93.
The risk – meausured by tracking error of the fund - have general been low."

Donnchadh Lynch, Fondsmanager, "KBC Equity Latin America Cap" (30.05.2011): "The fund has produced positive returns over both the 3 and 5 years period. The funds performance over these periods has been broadly in line with that of its benchmark the MSCI Latin America. While the fund’s performance YTD has been negative its performance has been broadly in line with that of the MSCI Latin America index. As with all Emerging Market portfolios the KBC Equity Fund Latin America, is exposed to a high degree of Market and Exchange rate risk."

Ian Simmons, Fondsmanager, "Magna Latin American A EUR" (27.05.2011): "The fund is ranked in the first quartile of its peer group over 1, 3 and 5 years. Our risk, measured by tracking error relative to the index, has been stable at close to 5% throughout this period. This is at the bottom end of our indicated range but has been enough to generate strong performance. The contribution of stock specific risk has also been stable at around 70% of the overall risk budget, illustrating that we did not change our bottom-up approach even during the crisis of 2008. Outperformance has been generated from a variety of sources, with oversold bluechips contributing well in 2009 as they recovered, while unloved Brazil provided plenty of madcap opportunities in volatile but largely sideways markets in 2010. The fund is performing well against its peer group again this year despite markets taking a turn lower. We believe that stockpicking will be vital to further success while we work through an uncertain period in the global economy and the resulting impact on stockmarket direction."

Frage 5

e-fundresearch: "Welches besondere Marktpotenzial und welche Risiken gibt es derzeit in der Region Lateinamerika?"

Anders Damgaard, Chief Portfolio Manager, "ISI Latin America Equities" (30.05.2011): "Lateinamerika dürfte langfristig von der steigenden Nachfrage nach Energie, Metallen und Nahrungsmittel aus China und Indien profitieren. Kurzfristig könnte die Wachstumspause in China und in den USA negativ auf die Region abfärben. Die brasilianische Währung ist überbewertet und die Inflation Brasiliens zu hoch."

Nick Robinson, Fondsmanager, "Aberdeen Global - Latin American Equity S2 Acc" (31.05.2011): "The expected increases in the oil price driven by Japan’s nuclear crisis and the unrest in the Middle East appear to benefit the commodity-rich region. But inflationary pressures and rising interest rates, together with the potential withdrawal of fiscal stimulus in the near term, are likely to pare Latin America’s full-year economic growth. Meanwhile, uncertainty over the impending end to the US Federal Reserve’s second round of quantitative easing may hamper market momentum in the short term. But we remain optimistic over the long-term fundamentals of Latin American markets, where we believe there are still value investment opportunities, with valuations still reasonable and corporate profits healthy."

Lionel Bernard, Fondsmanager, "Amundi Funds Latin America Equities AU C" (27.05.2011): "Please refer to the attached document "Latam outlook"."

 


Angel Ortiz, Co-Fondsmanager, "Fidelity Funds - Latin America A-USD" (31.05.2011): "From an opportunity standpoint, we could quite easily see a bounce in Brazilian equity returns. Inflation is starting to slow, loan growth remains robust and on the whole, stock prices are inexpensive. Furthermore, the long term outlook for the whole region is supported by favourable demographics, with relatively young populations whose earnings and disposable incomes are steadily rising. In most cases, the overall outlook for the consumer sector is further enhanced by falling unemployment, low long term interest rates and the lack of leverage.
The biggest risk in the region right now is continued local currency appreciation.  While the region as a whole has benefited from its wealth of resources and healthy domestic consumption, its local manufacturing sectors have been negatively impacted by significant currency appreciation. In turn, the local governments have engaged in controls to stem such gains. We do a watchful eye on how this will play out in terms of the balance of the region´s economy."

Chris Palmer, Fondsmanager, "Gartmore SICAV Latin American EUR A" (01.06.2011): "The largest risk to Latin America would be a repeat of the external type of crisis which hit the markets so severely in 2008. Latin America has excellent macroeconomic policies and governments are remarkably well funded. However market liquidity conditions similar to 2008 are generally not favorable to emerging markets, but as the bounce since 2008 suggests, the recovery is also very sharp. The Chinese economic outlook is worth studying for potential slowdown as that country is now their fastest growing trade partner for countries such as Brazil and Argentina. The U.S. economy remains the biggest source of risk for Mexico."

Dr. Mark Mobius, Fondsmanager, "Templeton Latin America A (Ydis) USD" (30.05.2011): "Wir sind für Lateinamerika nach wie vor zuversichtlich, da wir davon ausgehen, dass die starken Fundamentaldaten längerfristig für nachhaltiges Wirtschaftswachstum sorgen werden. Nach Angaben des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF) verzeichneten die Schwellenländer 2010 ein Wachstum von 7,3% und Brasilien 7,5% – mehr als das Doppelte der für die Industrieländer ausgewiesenen 3,0%. Der IWF projiziert für Schwellenmärkte für 2011 und 2012 ein Wachstum von 6,5% im Jahr und damit deutlich mehr als für die Industrieländer mit jeweils 2,4% bzw. 2,6%*.
Neben starken makroökonomischen Daten sind auch die Finanz- und Fiskalindikatoren unseres Erachtens positiv geblieben. Die lateinamerikanischen Länder dürften nach unserer Erwartung höheres Wachstum bei (im historischen Vergleich) niedrigeren Risiken verzeichnen – aus mehreren Gründen: Dazu gehören gestiegene Produktivität und höherer Verbrauch infolge einer jüngeren, besser ausgebildeten Erwerbsbevölkerung, höhere verfügbare Pro-Kopf-Einkommen und ein größeres Angebot an natürlichen Ressourcen – im Hinblick auf harte und weiche Rohstoffe gleichermaßen. Die Implementierung adäquater fiskal- und währungspolitischer Maßnahmen, Wirtschafts- und Marktliberalisierung sowie die Steigerung der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit sind unseres Erachtens weitere Gründe für Optimismus.
In der Wahrnehmung der Investoren sind die lateinamerikanischen Märkte ebenfalls gestiegen, da ihre Devisenreserven zum Teil hohe Niveaus erreichen und sich ihr Sicherheitsprofil weiter verbessert. Darüber hinaus dürfte die Binnennachfrage in Lateinamerika vermutlich künftig eine größere Rolle spielen, da das Wachstum in den Industrieländern erwartungsgemäß niedriger ausfallen und durch fiskalpolitische Probleme belastet sein wird."

*Quelle: Internationaler Währungsfonds, World Economic Outlook, April 2011.

Søren Nemec, Fondsmanager, "Jyske Invest Latin American Equities" (31.05.2011): "We find the Latin America region very attractive with great investment opportunities in the long run. The macro fundamentals are still very healthy (even though overheating/inflation right now is given some challenges) and the companies have general high return on equity combined with low levels of debt. The biggest market in Latin America – Brazil – is cheep after underperformance emerging markets the last 1½ years. We see great opportunities here, and WM in football in 2014 and OL in 2016 can be the catalyst for lifting the investment level in Brazil to a higher level. That can be the catalyst for higher potential growth going forward. More political interference in the corporate sector in the region and more regulation is always a risk. The regions capital markets is also tight connected to the global financial system – so any problems here can have potential disrupted effects on the capital markets in the region."

Donnchadh Lynch, Fondsmanager, "KBC Equity Latin America Cap" (30.05.2011): "The Latin America region GDP is continuing to grow at a quicker pace than that of Developed markets. The Latin America region is a large exporter of commodities as such Latin America has benefitted and continues to benefit from current commodity market. Latin America equities have shown a high degree of correlation with commodity prices. Much of the commodities elevated price levels driven by demand in Emerging markets such as Asia and a decline in the USD. As such the region is exposed to risk of both a decline in demand and a strengthening of the USD. Inflation has been a problem throughout the region, with many countries in the midst of fiscal tightening process. The interest rate cycle will continue for the foreseeable future to stop the economy from overheating and inflation accelerating. The end of QE2 is likely to bring a period of uncertainty as to how markets will react to the end of the US fiscal stimulus."

Ian Simmons, Fondsmanager, "Magna Latin American A EUR" (27.05.2011): "Latin American governments and corporates have learned from past crises and are today operating with much stronger balance sheets. Central Banks are showing a commitment to inflation targeting and in the case of Brazil we are seeing they are comfortable using a variety of tools to achieve this. The risk of inflation and interest rates spiking beyond expectations is precisely what creates such interesting opportunities for investment today. The Brazilian market is trading close to 10x PE with many company share prices implying a worst case scenario that we do not thing will happen. Indeed, our Latin American fund is currently trading at a lower multiple than the benchmark despite an underweight in cyclical commodities and overweights in a variety of high growth domestic names which have traditionally earned much higher multiples. While some of the larger sectors such as financials still face headwinds as the government is probably not finished with intervention in the sector, many sectors consisting of mid cap stocks overlooked by large global funds have seen big share price declines despite reporting strong numbers. Outside Brazil we are finally starting to see a pick up in capital markets activity in Mexico and the Andean countries. While this can cause a short term overhang while the market has to digest new offerings, it is undoubtedly positive to have new sectors and companies available for investment in these countries."

Alle Daten per 20.05.2011:

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