e-fundresearch: "Wie ist Ihr globaler Makro-Ausblick für das Jahr 2011?"Gerald Kichler, Portfoliomanager, "Flossbach von Storch - Aktien Global F" (08.06.2011): "Die ersten Monate des laufenden Jahres haben gezeigt, dass die Welt voller Gefahren ist. Die Ausweitung der Schuldenkrise auf Italien, Hyperinflation, ein Goldpreis von 10.000 oder ein weiterer atomarer GAU sind denkbar, aber auch mit noch so vorausschauenden und tiefgreifenden Analysen nicht abschließend zu erfassen. Und selbst wenn dies gelingt, sind die Folgen nicht immer absehbar. Der einzig wirkungsvolle Schutz vor schwarzen Schwänen ist eine ausgewogene Diversifikation des Vermögens nach Anlageklassen, Regionen und Währungen und die Vermeidung dummer Risiken, wie den Kauf riskanter Anleihen ohne Risikoprämie. Voraussetzung für den realen Erhalt eines Vermögens ist die Akzeptanz von Volatilität. So unangenehm wie die Schwankungen von Aktien und Edelmetallen kurzfristig sein mögen. Im Vergleich zu der schleichenden und vielleicht einmal galoppierenden Entwertung von als sicher verkannten Nominalwerten sind sie auf jeden Fall das kleinere, weil temporäre Übel." Eric Le Coz, Mitglied des Investmentkomitees von Carmignac Gestion, "Carmignac Investissement A" (07.06.2011): "The visibility in the macro economic outlook has slightly deteriorated. That being said we believe that there are some key changes that have already manifested leading us to position our portfolios slightly more defensively compared to its stance at the start of the year.
In regards to the US economy, we have already identified that some important leading indicators are pointing towards a slowdown (consumer confidence, manufacturing activity, business confidence) in the second half of the year 2011 and 2012. In the face of still poor unemployment figures and a morose building and real estate sector, a zero interest rate policy will be surely be maintained for some time yet, particularly, as the end of the QE2 will indeed have some negative impact from reduced liquidity. That being said earnings growth has been exceptional and US enterprises (and Carmignac Investissement) have benefitted over the last 2 years from the recovery with low debt and default rates, but we feel there will be little chance for a further surprise on earnings on the upside going ahead.
With regards Europe, we are still very negative about the capacity for the peripheral debt situation to be resolved with the current measures in place. Greece has little capacity to pay down its debt at financing rates close to 20%. The problem needs to be mutualised with the other European countries and with Germany whose 40% of exports are generated from other European countries; they have every interest in participating to keep the European activity and the financial system afloat. This month at the June 24 Luxembourg European finance ministers’ meeting , a decision needs to be taken within the ESM European Stability Mechanism on the how to fund the bailout fund after 2013 while within the ESFS (European Stability Facility) a decision has to be taken on how to boost the current bailout fund. The burden sharing between core AAA rated Europe and lower rated peripheral Europe is unclear, as is the weight the private sector creditors will have to take in any consequences of debt restructure.
In emerging markets the key risk factor over the last 12-18 months has been inflation. Inflation has had its origin in many sources, (food,other commodity prices and housing) and entities like the Chinese central authorities have been unrepentant in resolving them. One of the origins is sure to stay though, like other emerging countries such as India, economies are evolving away from exports as a key growth driver towards domestic demand. This in itself is inflationary, the rising living standards increase the purchasing power of individuals and also the government infrastructure needs continue to draw on world resources and push up commodity prices. A policy mix by the Chinese authorities of multiple reserve requirements increases and direct interest rate hikes should have cured the acute inflationary flu. Agricultural prices have already come down 10% from its peak in February and we, as well other market economists including the IMF, anticipate a peak in annual inflation at 5.8% next month. Hence we feel that the emerging equity and bond markets will take the lead again while developed markets experience a mid cycle pause."
Dominik Issler, Regionenleiter Mitteleuropa, "Martin Currie GF Global Ressources USD" (08.06.2011): "Our portfolio construction is not driven by formulating our own macro economic forecasts. However, we do pay close attention to the macro projections – and particularly the implied commodity prices - that appear to be priced into equities. There are often inconsistencies between the views expressed in commodity markets and those of equity investors. In turn, equity analysts specialising in different sectors or geographies will use different assumptions. These discrepancies are a great source of inefficiency and therefore opportunity in markets.
So far this year, equity markets have generally been more cautious than commodity markets. This was reflected in the leadership of defensive, large cap oil stocks during the first quarter rally in oil. Meanwhile, precious metal equities significantly underperformed gold and silver prices. This market scepticism is healthy in terms of the outlook for equity prices. Recent volatility in commodity markets has been accompanied by a draw-down of speculative long positions – another healthy development. We would therefore regard the typical Q2 uncertainty that we are experiencing as a good entry point.
Stepping back a little, we have witnessed a dramatic recovery in both commodity and equity prices from the financial crisis lows. We would now expect greater differentiation in performance at the stock and sub-sector level. This should be a better environment for active managers."
e-fundresearch: "Welche Elemente sind die wichtigsten in Ihrem Investmentprozess?"
Gerald Kichler, Portfoliomanager, "Flossbach von Storch - Aktien Global F" (08.06.2011):
- Unabhängigkeit im Denken und Handeln
- aktives Management
- globale Ausrichtung
- fundamental geprägte Anlagephilosophie."
Eric Le Coz, Mitglied des Investmentkomitees von Carmignac Gestion, "Carmignac Investissement A" (07.06.2011): "Our investment process is based on a non benchmarked, actively managed approach to global investing with 3 key pillars. Firstly, investment themes are defined within our core macroeconomic scenario which helps determine different zones and sectors in which we want to invest. Secondly, bottom up, fundamentally driven research for stock is made by the portfolio managers and analysts. The tight knit investment team composed of 21 portfolio managers and analysts meet formally everyday to discuss changes in the macroeconomic scene, investment ideas and portfolio risks, in this way decisions can be made and taken rapidly if need. Lastly, since 2001, Carmignac Gestion has used simple equity futures to reduce equity exposure (within the prospectus guidelines) of each fund should they see a prolonged period of systemic (market) risk. A dedicated fund manager works with the portfolio manager to monitor equity, currency and liquidity risk in the portfolios."
Dominik Issler, Regionenleiter Mitteleuropa, "Martin Currie GF Global Ressources USD" (08.06.2011): "Our investment process is designed to identify, evaluate and exploit change at an early stage.
We believe that market participants tend to underestimate the magnitude and duration of change in businesses and the investment returns this can drive. We also observe that evidence of change in one area is often ignored or interpreted differently across sectors and regions due to narrow specialisation and poor communication. Our team structure and culture enable us to take advantage of inefficiencies across the resources universe.
Stock selection has been and will continue to be the prime driver of fund returns. We employ a consistent, disciplined-thought process that encourages us to run winners and cut losers."
e-fundresearch: "Welche Regionen und/oder Sektoren sind derzeit in globalen Aktienfonds übergewichtet? Was sind die Gründe dafür?"
Gerald Kichler, Portfoliomanager, "Flossbach von Storch - Aktien Global F" (08.06.2011):
a) Länder - und Sektorallokation: Europa: 51,4%, Nordamerika: 37,0%, Asien: 7,1 %, Rest (= Kasse): 4,5%
Grund: Länderallokation ist das Ergebnis günstiger Bewertung einzelner Aktien (Bottom-Up-Stockpicking)
b) Top 3 Branchen: Pharma (inkl. MedTech): 23,5%, Technologie : 15,90 % , Telekom:12,0 %;
Pharma und Telekom: defensive Sektoren, Bewertung noch immer i.O.
Technologie: günstige Bewertung, Branche mit den höchsten Netto-CashBeständen."
Eric Le Coz, Mitglied des Investmentkomitees von Carmignac Gestion, "Carmignac Investissement A" (07.06.2011): "The portfolio manager of the fund Carmignac Investissement, Edouard Carmignac, has always a thematic approach to investment, the sectorial and regional positions result from a global macroeconomic scenario viewpoint and bottom up, fundamentally driven stock picking approach. Given the non benchmark nature, a position is not determined by its relative weight compared to the benchmark.
In view of this comment we can describe the different investment convictions that have been present in the portfolio since the financial crisis and even before this looking back to the start of the new economic cycle in 2003. Investing in emerging markets is a long term core theme, as we have been long time believers in the rebalancing of world growth towards the emerging economies and away from developed markets. The fund has invested in China, India and Brazil due to their domestic demand led growth in sectors such as finance, infrastructure and consumer discretionary.
Other investments are in the natural resources industries both listed in developed and emerging countries in such areas as oil services, energy producers and diversified metals like copper producers. Gold miners have always been a core part of the portfolio, not only for the anti inflationary properties such as other raw material companies, but also due to its properties as a safe haven during periods of excessive market dislocation.
In the US we have been invested in IT and innovative biomedical companies that are benefitting from both US internal and foreign external demand due the rising purchasing power of the emerging markets middle class.
We remain skeptical about European investments and have preferred to invest in the more defensive health and consumer staples companies in this region."
Dominik Issler, Regionenleiter Mitteleuropa, "Martin Currie GF Global Ressources USD" (08.06.2011): "Increased investment in Saudi Arabia, plus a gradual resumption of drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, bodes well for our substantial oil-service exposure. Among producers, we continue to favour those companies with significant reserves outside of the Middle East and North Africa. We are also finding evidence of real value and positive change in some of the better-run integrated oils, particularly those domiciled outside the US; Petrobras is a good example here.
We were wary of over-exuberance in the copper market at the turn of the year. In most other areas, (eg. oil, iron ore) we would argue that equity investors didn’t believe in elevated commodities anyway. Price / NPV multiples for miners of industrial commodities are becoming more attractive and we are reflecting this in net sector exposure.
The same is true in precious metal sector where there has been a stark disconnect between gold metal and gold equities. This is creating a rare situation (last seen in late 2008) when selective gold stocks trade at significant discount to NPV when using a conventional discount rate.
We also see disconnects in the agricultural sector between commodities and equities. Wet weather in North America and drought in Europe might hamper sales of agro-chemicals in the short term but the impact on yields and inventories simply underpins strong economics for farmers. Agco, a supplier of farm equipment, recently upped its FY guidance range by 40%.
Our positive view on the packaging sector continues to play out. For Crown, this means rapid emerging-market expansion combined with substantial share buybacks. For Rexam, ongoing asset sales, coupled with newly stated returns targets, should see upgrades and continued debt reduction for a stock trading at a 15% discount to peers on a combination of metrics.
Recent events have tended to reinforce our positive view on paper producers Domtar and International Paper: Domtar will close another uncoated paper mill; pulp prices are moving up; International Paper hiked its dividend to above pre-crisis levels, whereas the share price remains one third below where it was in 2004."
e-fundresearch: "Was sind die großen Anlagethemen für globale Aktien 2011? Wo ergeben sich Chancen und wo liegen die Risiken?"
Gerald Kichler, Portfoliomanager, "Flossbach von Storch - Aktien Global F" (08.06.2011): "Die Aktienmärkte haben die japanische Atomkatastrophe und den Ölpreisanstieg in Folge der Unruhen in Nordafrika erstaunlich schnell hinter sich gelassen.Die wesentlichen Gründe für die schnelle Erholung sind die robuste Verfassung der Weltwirtschaft und die attraktive Bewertung der Aktienmärkte. Die Aktienmärkte favorisieren derzeit eindeutig Unternehmen mit „Gewinnphantasie", deren Aktien mit hohen Bewertungsaufschlägen belohnt werden. Dagegen werden Aktien von Unternehmen mit stabilen Gewinnen aber geringerer Gewinndynamik derzeit verschmäht. Dieses hänomen gilt interessanterweise quer durch alle Branchen. Da wir zu den Investoren zählen, die Wert auf eine hohe Sicherheitsmarge legen, sind „priced for perfection"-Aktien aufgrund ihres Chance-Risikoprofils für uns nicht interessant. Dies ist kein Votum gegen Wachstumswerte, doch darf das Wachstumspotenzial noch nicht völlig im Kurs enthalten sein. Wenn das Geschäftsmodell „ungeliebter" Aktien nachhaltig ist, wird der Markt die Unterbewertung dieser „Schläfer" früher oder später abbauen. Ein Beispiel ist die bis Sommer letzten Jahres dahindümpelnde Aktie des Pharmakonzerns Pfizer. Die Probleme der Branche waren hinlänglich bekannt, der Ablauf wichtiger Patente in den Gewinnerwartungen enthalten. Dennoch handelte die Aktie nur noch auf dem 7-fachen der erwarteten Gewinne. Seither ist die Aktie ohne wesentliche Unternehmensneuigkeiten von 14 auf über 20 Dollar gestiegen. Auch heute finden wir zahlreiche Titel, die nach Beendigung ihres Dornröschenschlafs erhebliches Kurspotenzial haben und die Wartezeit mit hohen Dividendenrenditen verkürzen.
Dagegen ist das Chance-/Risikoverhältnis der Schwellenländermärkten weniger attraktiv, da bereits ein recht ambitioniertes Gewinnwachstum in den Kursen enthalten ist, die Risiken aber weniger Beachtung finden. Eine Partizipation am Wachstum der Schwellenländer ist deshalb mit Aktien großer Rohstoffunternehmen, wie Rio Tinto oder BHP, erfolgversprechender."
Eric Le Coz, Mitglied des Investmentkomitees von Carmignac Gestion, "Carmignac Investissement A" (07.06.2011): "In the light of our view about a slowdown in the US, we have taken profits on some of our exposure to the more cyclical investments in the US (some metals producers and some consumer discretionary companies).
Risks lie most importantly with the European financial system and their interlinked holdings of peripheral countries debt which is why European investments will remain underrepresented particularly in the finance sector.
Given commodity prices are themselves a demand regulator and with our view of US growth slowing, we see that raw material prices and food prices should stabilize reducing the need for further major monetary policy tightening in the emerging markets which should boost emerging market stocks in the second half of this year."
Dominik Issler, Regionenleiter Mitteleuropa, "Martin Currie GF Global Ressources USD" (08.06.2011): "As we have been for several quarters, we are bullish on the prospects for global gas. Even before the MENA conflict pushed up the oil price, the disparity between it and the price of gas looked unsustainable. The tragedy in Japan has caused a rethink among many of the world’s governments, as nuclear expansion plans are put on hold, and alternative sources of power are considered.
The case for gas was given a further boost in a recent speech by President Obama, in which he suggested a greater shift towards domestic natural gas in the US energy mix. Although similar statements from some of Obama’s predecessors regarding America’s dependence on foreign oil have made little long-term impact, this does suggest a more positive backdrop for US natural gas.
Cheap gas, coupled with a weak currency and relatively low inflation are behind what we see as a substantial and widening competitive advantage for US producers of a range of commodities and basic materials. In our view, this is a very significant development that is not yet appreciated by markets. It is already being reflected in the investment decisions of mining and chemical companies.
Certain sectors, such as shipping and steel, continue to face significant over capacity with limited signs of future supply discipline. In European chemicals we see the risk of a squeeze from slowing volume and FX headwinds which do not appear to be factored into above average valuations. We also see risks in Australian building materials where signs are suggesting a peak in certain markets as Government stimulus fades."
e-fundresearch: "Bitte kommentieren Sie die Performance- und Risikokennzahlen Ihres Fonds im laufenden Jahr und in den letzten 3 bzw. 5 Jahren."
Gerald Kichler, Portfoliomanager, "Flossbach von Storch - Aktien Global F" (08.06.2011):
YTD -2,2 % -0,2 %
3 Jahre +9,33% +2,5%
5 Jahre +33,7 % +1,6 %
(Zahlen per 31.05.2011)
-3,1% Selektion: insbesondere Underperformance von Bluechips aus dem Tech-Sektor wie Microsoft, Cisco, Nokia, Google
+1,9% Währung: insbesondere geringere Gewichtung im USD sowie JPY-Hedge
-0,8% Allokation: Zum Anfang des Jahres zu hohe Kassehaltung, erst ab März war das Portfolio voll investiert (Kasse >5%)
3- Jahres bzw. 5-Jahres Performance: Outperformance ggü. Referenzindex im Wesentlichen aufgrund guter Allokation und Selektion defensive Ausrichtung (Kassehaltung), keine Bankaktien (Indexgewicht: ca. 20%)."
Eric Le Coz, Mitglied des Investmentkomitees von Carmignac Gestion, "Carmignac Investissement A" (07.06.2011): "Over the current year Carmignac Investissement performance has disappointed, underperforming its index by -2.75% (up to end April 2011) mainly due to the poor input from the emerging market investments in the start of the year. As the effects of monetary policy tightening started to show an impact in activity equity markets took a breather in Brazil, India and China hurting our portfolio valuations in what was a prolonged period of emerging market equity weakness.
Secondly, given the market sentiment that the European peripheral debt situation had improved ( an opinion we did and do not share) the USD lost ground weakening 8% agaist the Euro in the first few months of this year. We underestimated the Euro strength and our USD related equity investments suffered over the first quarter ,the USD being used as a financing currency in periods of appetite for risky assets such as equities.
Carmignac Investissement has performed +13.8% vs -2.3% benchmark (MSCI World (Eur)) over the last 3 years (29/04/11) and +29.6% vs -10.92% benchmark over the last 5 years (29/04/11).
Key performance drivers have been our emerging market investments in finance and infrastructure, natural resources company investing in oil services, and diversified and precious metal company investments. Currency hedging and equity hedging have generally been an added advantage during periods of market stress although the timing of this discretionary risk management has been difficult over the last 12 months."
Dominik Issler, Regionenleiter Mitteleuropa, "Martin Currie GF Global Ressources USD" (08.06.2011): "The long-term performance of the fund is very compelling, offering outperformance of the sector with below average volatility over a five year period. In the past five years, the fund has returned 58.7% against a sector average of 38.9%. Over a turbulent three year period the fund has dropped 1.6% but has had a strong start to 2011 and has returned 9.9% against a sector average of 7.8%.*
We work with the risk team to try to manage and generally minimise sensitivity to macro variables, preferring to concentrate risk at the stock level. We believe the success of this has been reflected in the performance of the fund against its peers on both an absolute and risk-adjusted basis."
* Source for all performance: Lipper Hindsight. Bid to bid basis with gross income reinvested over periods shown in US dollars. These figures do not include initial charges. If these were included, performance figures would be reduced. On 30 December 2005 the Martin Currie GF - International Growth Fund changed name and mandate to become the Martin Currie GF - Global Resources Fund. The full Global Resources portfolio was in place by 4 January 2006. Past performance is not a guide to future returns.
Alle Daten per 27.05.2011: