Die besten Nord-Amerika Aktienfonds

e-fundresearch: "What is your current outlook for the U.S. economy over the next 12 months?"

Eric McLaughlin, Fund Manager, "BNP Paribas L1 Equity USA Growth C C" (21.07.2011): "We remain constructive on stocks on the belief that earnings will continue to surprise to the upside and M&A activity and share repurchases will support stock values.

While the global economy seems to have hit a soft patch, we think the market will recover as the year continues. We think the global economic slowdown is only temporary, much of it caused by environmental factors disrupting supply chains, such as flooding and tornadoes in the U.S and the Japanese earthquake and subsequent tsunami. As the global economy begins to reaccelerate, it should boost the stock market in the remainder of 2011, in our judgment. In our opinion, the current slowdown in economic growth can be attributed to a number of different factors, some of which will be temporary. First, we believe we are still seeing the lagged effects of the spike in energy prices that occurred earlier in the year as a result of supply disruptions and escalating geopolitical risks. Additionally, production problems caused by the earthquake in Japan have had some negative effects on the global economy. In the United States, a rash of poor weather, including some terrible floods and tornadoes, have contributed to a short-term slowdown in growth levels. All of these factors, however, have not been enough to cause a break in economic growth. For that to occur, we believe we would need to see a material weakening in liquidity, lending rates and the health of the overall credit market, events that do not appear to be on the horizon. An additional item that has been in the news lately has been the ongoing debate over the US deficit and what will happen with the debt ceiling. We believe the discussion over the debt ceiling has to be viewed through the lens of political theatre, and we expect that the debate is likely to go to the 11th (if not the 12th or 13th) hour. We do believe that the debt ceiling will ultimately be raised as part of a broader agreement to cut spending by at least $1 trillion over the next 10 years. We are likely to see some cuts in defence spending, a cap on discretionary spending levels and some sort of budget process reform that would force Congress to reach certain debt targets. We also may see some cuts to second-tier entitlement programs, but we doubt there will be meaningful changes made to Medicare, Medicaid or Social Security.

Looking ahead, the economic forecast will be largely dependent on the state of the jobs market. A significant acceleration or deceleration in the pace of jobs growth has the potential to change almost everything. While we do acknowledge the downside risks, we believe that trends in corporate earnings and profits suggest that the pace of jobs growth should pick up in the second half of 2011, which would help keep economic growth on track."

Felix Wintle, Fondsmanager, "Neptune US Opportunities A Acc GBP" (22.07.2011): "Although the recent slowdown in US economic data (including weak manufacturing and payroll data) is a concern, our research suggests that part of this weakness can be explained by supply chain disruptions resulting from Japan’s earthquake. We therefore expect a rebound in manufacturing activity in the third quarter as Japanese industrial production recovers. This industrial momentum should help to drive business and consumer confidence, which in turn should further drive the economic recovery. Furthermore, the recent pullback in commodity prices has provided some welcome relief to both consumers’ discretionary spend and corporate margins alike. Therefore we remain positive on the outlook for the US economy over the next 12 months.”

Mathew Powers, Investment Specialist, "BNP Paribas L1 Opportunities USA C C" (21.07.2011): "The current macro environment is quite confusing and complicated. We see the US having low growth for a number of years, are prudent on the US economy and US stock market, and believe there is a need for more stimulus. There is a need to print more money. However, there are still many good companies in the US. We choose to focus on those companies with significant exposure to global markets and global growth."

e-fundresearch: "Which are the most important elements in your investment process?

Eric McLaughlin, Fund Manager, "BNP Paribas L1 Equity USA Growth C C" (21.07.2011): "The most important elements of our investment process are what we call our complimentary layers of fundamental analysis. Our approach combines systematic and qualitative fundamental analysis. The systematic review is a proprietary stock screen focused on the characteristics that are desirable to fundamental investors. The next step in our process is to complete a thorough fundamental review. Our fundamental process is based on our belief the stock prices reflect earnings and that our in depth company research is focused on developing a learned view on earnings prospects. Thus, we believe applying a consistent and disciplined approach will provide a sustainable edge for creating added value."

Felix Wintle, Fondsmanager, "Neptune US Opportunities A Acc GBP" (22.07.2011): "Neptune has developed a proprietary investment process based on the philosophy that the world of equities should be viewed at a global industry or sector level, rather than taking the more traditional regional, benchmark-driven approach. We believe this approach better reflects an increasingly globalised world, and it further allows us to seek to identify best in class companies, regardless of the geography of their listing.

This combination of our top-down global sector overview and bottom-up stock selection forms the rigorous and proven investment process that is used across all our funds. Our portfolios are not constrained by benchmarks, allowing us to pursue a high conviction approach to investment management.

With the exception of Robin Geffen, Fund Manager & CEO, and Chris Taylor, Investment Director & Head of Research, each fund manager/analyst is responsible for researching a global industry sector. This disciplined, team-based investment process drives strong in-house sector views combined with each individual manager’s stockpicking skills.”

Mathew Powers, Investment Specialist, "BNP Paribas L1 Opportunities USA C C" (21.07.2011): "Our investment process allows for strong sector bets. We believe that sector weights change quickly within indexes and can vary greatly over time. Sector weights at one point in time should not be a constraint for portfolio construction. We also have two layers of flexibility which allows us to fully implement our viewpoint on the US economy. Firstly, we are under no obligation to be fully invested and are able to bring equity exposure down to 75%, increasing cash positions when bearish. Secondly, we are able to hedge the portfolio by selling index futures and decreasing our net equity exposure to 60%. This allows us to maintain positions in our high conviction stocks while still positioning for a down market."

e-fundresearch: "Which over- and underweight positions are currently implemented in your fund?"

Eric McLaughlin, Fund Manager, "BNP Paribas L1 Equity USA Growth C C" (21.07.2011): "We are not able to respond to stock specific inquiries, however, with that said, we are focused on companies that we believe can sustainably grow their revenues. We are finding that market conditions are quite favourable within certain sectors. Companies continue to invest in Technology, particularly in areas that allow for increased efficiency, such as cloud computing or server virtualization. We continue to believe that technology spending will grow faster than GDP as companies that have underinvested in capital improvements over the past few years look to technology. Within the Energy sector, our long term outlook of oil production remains favourable. There is a finite limit to the amount of oil that can ever be produced and utilized. While other unconventional energy sources exist and continue to be developed, it will likely be a long time before the world is ready to substantially reduce its dependence on oil. Meanwhile, demand for oil in emerging countries is widely expected to increase substantially over the next few decades. So while the fundamental supply/demand structure may fluctuate, over the long-term, our outlook for oil prices remains favourable."

Felix Wintle, Fondsmanager, "Neptune US Opportunities A Acc GBP" (22.07.2011): "We are currently overweight in the consumer discretionary sector, a sector that has consistently outperformed since the S&P 500 lows in March 2009. In particular, we are positioned in companies that are growing rapidly in international markets, for example teen retailer Abercrombie & Fitch, which are opening six European flagship stores in the next 2 years. We also like companies which have exposure to the higher income consumers in the US, as this core demographic has not faced the same macro headwinds, such as unemployment and falling house prices, that the lower income groups have faced.**

Another key overweight for the Fund is in the industrials sector, where we find many leading global companies that we believe have attractive fundamentals and compelling valuations.

We are underweight in financials, which has been the worst performing sector year-to-date. With weak loan growth and regulatory risk headwinds, we have remained underweight in the sector, and currently do not hold any banks in the portfolio. We are also underweight in the defensive utilities and telecommunications sectors given our bullish outlook for the remainder of the year.”

Mathew Powers, Investment Specialist, "BNP Paribas L1 Opportunities USA C C" (21.07.2011): "We are currently overweight materials which is largely a play on gold mining. The price of gold has appreciated greatly and, we believe, will continue to appreciate as real rates are currently negative and should remain very low for some time. Gold mining stocks are traditionally priced inline with the gold commodity, but have recently become undervalued, leaving significant upside potential.
 
We are underweight financials as we believe US debt levels are alarmingly high and that the US is still highly levered. The US has a long way to go before recovery and the financial system will be greatly limited."

Question 4

e-fundresearch: "Where do you see potential risks for US equities?"

Eric McLaughlin, Fund Manager, "BNP Paribas L1 Equity USA Growth C C" (21.07.2011): "We touched on some of our concerns in our response to question 1 above and although we continue to have a generally optimistic view of the economic and markets backdrop, there are always risks. One issue that has been prominent in the headlines is the threat higher oil prices pose to the economic recovery. We think the U.S. economy can weather higher prices unless the geopolitical situation in Middle East & North Africa deteriorates dramatically and pushes WTI oil above $120/bbl for an extended period. Despite being the world´s largest importer of oil, oil is less than 40% of US energy consumption. Natural gas and coal together account for more, and their prices are 50% and 20% lower than their 2008-average prices, respectively. Although gasoline prices are back to early 2008 levels, Americans now drive 40 billion less miles per year with a more fuel-efficient fleet. Ten million cars were scrapped in 2009. Thus, households are actually spending a smaller percentage of their disposable income on gasoline than they were in early 2008 (3.5% vs. 4%). However, further rises in gasoline prices would not bode well for the recovery in discretionary consumer spending.

Additionally, we would highlight the potential risk of escalating weakness in the housing market. The recent downtrend in home prices does raise some concerns, and should this slide continue it would threaten the improvements we have seen in consumer confidence and could cause renewed issues for the banking system. As with the rise in oil prices, the housing market remains a key area to watch in terms of potential threats to our cautiously optimistic outlook.

Finally, the focus currently in the U.S. is on the debt ceiling and the budget deal being hammered out by both houses of Congress and the President. We continue to believe a resolution to this debate is forthcoming, probably because the alternative is unthinkable."

Felix Wintle, Fondsmanager, "Neptune US Opportunities A Acc GBP" (22.07.2011): "The biggest risk that we currently see for US equities is a failure by the US government to reach an agreement on the debt reduction plan. Similarly, in Europe, we need to see politicians find a long term sustainable solution to deal with the sovereign debt crisis and help restore confidence to the markets.

The other principal risk for US equities is that the recent weakness we have seen in economic data is not just a ‘soft patch’, but is something more persistent. Therefore, if there is not a bounce back in economic momentum in the third quarter – as we currently anticipate – the S&P 500 is likely to come under pressure.”

Mathew Powers, Investment Specialist, "BNP Paribas L1 Opportunities USA C C" (21.07.2011): "A good earnings season may not be enough to drive the US stock market higher. Corporate America is doing well, but may not be sustainable from a healthcare and pensions perspective. The US needs a consumer that is spending to drive the market forward."

Question 5

e-fundresearch: "Please comment on the performance and risk parameters of your fund in the past year as well as over the past 3 and 5 years."

Eric McLaughlin, Fund Manager, "BNP Paribas L1 Equity USA Growth C C" (21.07.2011): "Over the past twelve months, large cap growth stocks have rallied helped by healthy growth of revenues and earnings. By design, stock selection drives our relative results and over the past year, our Technology and Consumer Discretionary holdings have outperformed.  In particular, among our Technology holdings, our software and service stocks were the key contributor, followed by strong relative results in the hardware and equipment holdings. In the Consumer Discretionary sector, our media holdings outperformed.

The past three to five years cover a wide range of market conditions, starting with the financial crises and recession and followed by the quick market recovery and gradual economic growth. In this market environment, our strategy performed roughly in-line with its benchmark. The stocks that have performed best for us have been those that have proven their ability to sustainably grow not only earnings, but revenues as well. These have been primarily focused in the Technology and Energy sectors. Strong results here have been partially offset by disappointing results among our Materials and Consumer Staples holdings.

We manage risk in a number of different ways. We focus on high quality companies as we are searching for opportunities and our sector and industry group neutrality also controls risk within the portfolio. In addition, we monitor ex ante risk, marginal contribution to risk of each holding, and the product’s overall risk profile (i.e., portfolio characteristics, style, size, etc.) relative to the benchmark. Risk indicators are controlled prior to implementation of the final portfolio as well as on an ongoing basis as part of the daily management of the portfolio."

Felix Wintle, Fondsmanager, "Neptune US Opportunities A Acc GBP" (22.07.2011): "Over the past year, the performance on the Neptune US Opportunities Fund has been disappointing, returning 1.3% against the Index return of 10.4%.* We attribute much of this underperformance to a number of stock specific issues in the first quarter; the Fund’s bottom five contributors on a stock level, of which four had company-related issues, accounted for the majority of the fund’s overall underperformance. Furthermore, our underweight positions in the more defensive sectors, such as utilities and healthcare, has negatively impacted performance as these sectors have worked well in the recent weak market.

However, our long term track record remains very strong: the Fund has outperformed the Index by 15.5% on a 5 year basis (17.5% versus 2.0%), whilst since inception in December 2002 it has risen 52.8% versus the S&P 500 Index return of 28.6.*

With regards to risk parameters, the Neptune US Opportunities Fund is relatively unconstrained with regards to sector weightings.*** Principally, however, no more than 30% of the portfolio’s market value would be invested in any one sector, whilst we can also zero weight 3 out of the 10 MSCI global sectors. Although we are always aware of the Fund’s weightings against the Index, we are not constrained by it, allowing us to significantly deviate away from it when we believe it is appropriate. Individual stock weightings will typically be between 2% – 4%. There is also no typical holding period and each stock is held with a long-term view. However, we regularly appraise and re-evaluate the Fund’s holdings to maintain a focused high-conviction portfolio of stocks. We have a maximum cash position of 20% on the fund.”

Mathew Powers, Investment Specialist, "BNP Paribas L1 Opportunities USA C C" (21.07.2011): "In 2008 the fund outperformed the S&P 500 by over 1100bp. In 2009, by over 500bp and in 2010, by over 700bp. In 2011, the fund has trailed its benchmark YTD by roughly 1000bp, this is largely due to a disconnect between gold mining stock prices and gold commodity prices. Traditionally gold mines are priced by the expected value of the commodity, but have recently trailed the price of gold. We expect this is a short term decoupling and should correct itself in the coming periods as investors begin to realize that the high price of gold is sustainable. Since inception the fund has outperformed by over 800bp."

All Data per 11.07.2011:

 

 

 

 

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*Source: Lipper, A Accumulation share class performance, in euros with no initial charges, net income reinvested to 30.06.11. The performance of other share classes may differ. This Fund may have a high historic volatility rating and past performance should not be a guide for future performance.  The value of an investment and any income from it can fall as well as rise as a result of market and currency fluctuations and your clients may not get back the original amount invested.

** References to specific securities are for illustrative purposes only and should not be regarded as recommendations to buy or sell these securities. The content of this document is formed of the fund manager’s personal analysis/views and we do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

***Subject to prescribe regulatory limits

This Fund may invest more than 35% in government and public securities in a number of jurisdictions.

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