e-fundresearch: "How do you assess the current market situation in the European Emerging Markets?"
Aziz Unan, Fondsmanager, "Griffin Ottoman" (02.08.2011): "For the time being the European Emerging Markets are mainly driven by the global events, i.e. the US and the Eurozone debt crisis."
Nick Barnes, Fondsmanager, "Nevsky Eastern European USD Inc" (03.08.2011): "During a volatile month for global markets the MSCI Emerging European Index fell by 6.8% in US$ terms whilst the Fund was down by 6.3%. Central Europe once again outperformed the region with Poland the best performing market, falling by 3.7% over the course of the month. The Fund had increased its Polish exposure to reduce the underweight at the start of the month given selective attractive company valuations although on the whole we still find the market unattractively valued relative to regional peers. Turkey continued to perform poorly (-13.3%) as international investors reduced exposure given the inappropriate monetary policy that is fuelling domestic price pressures. May inflation was sharply higher year-on-year and significantly worse than expectations at 7.2%. We remain significantly underweight the market and indeed further reduced exposure during the month given the worsening earnings outlook for the financial sector. These proceeds are currently being held in cash, which stood at 6.7% at month end and will be re-applied to markets once the current global macro volatility subsides."
Tim McCarthy, Senior Portfolio Manager, "Valartis Funds (Lux) Eastern European Equities" (03.08.2011): "Weak economic growth in the EU has hurt Emerging Europe over the last few years. The EU debt crisis will also limit future EU growth prospects, which will limit exports to the EU from Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic (or the “CE3”).
Quantitative easing has debased reserve currencies, making hard assets and more prudently managed currencies more valuable in reserve currency terms. The Euro, US Dollar, Polish Zloty, Hungarian Forint, Czeck Krona have all fallen vs. the Swiss Franc and given the volumes of household debt and mortgages denominated in Swiss Franc’s I am worried that the extra debt servicing burden will further reduce the outlook for growth in the region.
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, or, the “CIS”, however, are a different story. These economies are somewhat insulated from the European and US debt crisis. While they also export to the EU and Emerging Europe, they also export natural resources, materials on a global basis. So, with China and India growing at rates three to five times higher the than the EU or the US, these countries can still rely on their export sectors. The CIS also has large and rapidly growing domestic economies, growing at rates that are much higher than the export sectors. Their economies are diversifying and deepening, but they have a different set of problems with higher political risk factors that create deeper discounts on stock prices."
Alexandra Richter, Co-Fondsmanager, "Allianz RCM Emerging Europe - A - EUR" (03.08.2011): "Während alle Anleger verstärkt nach Asien schauen, hat Osteuropa als Anlageregion zuletzt an Aufmerksamkeit verloren. Zu Unrecht, wie wir meinen, da sich eine Vielzahl interessanter Chancen bieten – in einem besser als gemeinhin wahrgenommenen Umfeld. Der Konvergenzprozess, d.h. die Angleichung der Lebensverhältnisse, ist weiter in vollem Schwung. Während die EU-Mitgliedsstaaten in Osteuropa zum Teil bereits einen guten Teil des Weges zurückgelegt haben, kommen Länder wie Russland und die Türkei von einem verhältnismäßig niedrigeren Niveau. Im Vergleich zu den Euro-Peripheriestaaten weisen die meisten osteuropäischen Länder eine deutlich stabilere Haushaltssituation auf. Auch die Verschuldungssituation der Privathaushalte ist besser, so dass der Binnenkonsum als Treiber weiter an Bedeutung gewinnen wird. Die aktuellen Aktienmarktbewertungen sind dabei zumeist unter den langfristigen Durchschnitten.
Wir sind derzeit positiver eingestellt auf Russland im Vergleich zu den mitteleuropäischen Ländern wie beispielsweise Polen aber auch im Vergleich zur Türkei. Russland weist langfristig ein hohes Wachstumspotential auf insbesondere getrieben durch einen stärkeren Binnenkonsum. Nachdem das Wachstum im letzten Jahr eher hinter den Erwartungen zurückgeblieben war, sehen wir nun eine Beschleunigung. Zusätzliche Unterstützung für Russland kommt derzeit von höheren Rohstoffpreisen. Wenn nach den im nächsten Jahr bevorstehenden Wahlen weitere Reformen auf den Weg gebracht werden, sollte sich Russland weiter auf einem nachhaltigen Wachstumskurs bewegen. Längerfristig sind wir auch von den Chancen der Türkei überzeugt. Kurzfristig sind wir hier jedoch aufgrund der Überhitzungsgefahr, die mit einem starken Leistungsbilanzdefizit und einer schwächeren Währung einhergeht, eher vorsichtig."
Mikael Rosenbeck, Portfolio Manager, "Jyske Invest Turkish Equities" (02.08.2011): "Growth prospects for Eastern European countries are generally positive. The Eastern European consumers are in a positive development and are experiencing increased prosperity. The area is affected by the surrounding environment, especially the debt situation in the southern part of Europe and the situation regarding the debt ceiling in USA is effecting the region.
The outlook for Russia is especially promising for the second half of 2011. The companies´ earnings are robust, and the expectation is that companies will increase investments in the latter half of 2011. The increased investment will also strengthen private consumption as a result of an improving labor market. The country does have issues and the government needs to implement reforms before the country can continuing the promising trend. The expectation of higher growth and an attractive valuation means that the market could very likely be a good investment.
Turkey is struggling with a deficit on the current account, with a poor financing structure, and it’s still a question mark if the CBT (The Central bank of Turkey) policy has been too loose or if they will succeed with the unorthodox monetary policy?
For long term investors, the country does seem to be an attractive investment opportunity. The country has a young population with increasing living standard and a relative low private debt. The primary growth driver of the country is domestic demand."
Aivaras Abromavicius, Member of the Portfolio Management team, "East Capital Osteuropafonden" (04.08.2011): "Emerging Europe is not a basket case, yet all economies are showing higher growth rates, far surpassing those of their Western neighbors. Inflation is picking up like elsewhere in the world but does not pose a major risk. Russia and Kazakhstan are the main beneficiaries of higher commodities prices while Turkey is experiencing problems with widening current account deficit when oil prices remain safely above USD 100/bbl. Political situation remains largely stable with investors keenly awaiting parliament election in Russia at the end of the year and presidential one in early 2012. Western investors prefer Medvedev over Putin and his election would be positive for the markets as he promised new reforms, privatizations and modernization in the coming years. Valuations remain low, with Turkish market trading at 10x and Russia 7x 2011 earnings."
Markus Brück, Senior-Portfoliomanager, "Metzler Eastern Europe" (02.08.2011): "Wir sind generell optimistisch für die Region gestimmt. Trotz der vielfachen Krisen in diesem Jahr ist die Entwicklung an der Märkten stabil. Rußland ist einer der Profiteure der Entwickungen in diesem Jahr. Der Öl- und Gaspreisanstieg aufgrund der Entwicklung in Nordafrika sowie dem schnelleren Atomausstieg Deutschlands, lassen die Volkswirtschaft gut aussehen. In Zentralosteuropa sowie im Baltikum sehen wir einen Übergang von einem exportgetriebenen zu einem durch Inlandskonsum gestützten Wachstum. Osteuropa profitiert auch von seinen vergleichsweise soliden Staatsfinanzen."
Question 2
e-fundresearch: "Which are the most important elements in your investment process?"
Aziz Unan, Fondsmanager, "Griffin Ottoman" (02.08.2011): "Griffin Ottoman Fund is a value oriented fund focusing on Turkey with opportunistic investing in Eastern European and MENA region. Fund Manager Aziz Unan utilises an opportunistic bottom-up approach to the markets incorporating both stock and sector views. His stock selection is based on a combination of valuation models, target prices, management quality, stock market capitalisation, stock liquidity as well as stock and sector views and triggers in the market."
Nick Barnes, Fondsmanager, "Nevsky Eastern European USD Inc" (03.08.2011): "Our investment methodology:
Fundamental research is undertaken at both country and company level and used to build our proprietary database.
This database consists of earnings forecasts for the top companies in the region and economic forecasts for the main countries in the region. Company insights are gained by the analysis of company accounts and meetings with company management, while economic insights are gained from meetings with economic policy makers and the analysis of macroeconomic data. The team´s forecasts are then compared with market consensus expectations and it is the differences between the two that generates ideas which build the portfolio.
The relative and absolute value of each company is assessed by evaluating P/E, EV/EBITDA, EV/Sales relative to growth, the cost of capital and sector comparatives. In the financial sector, the P/Book compared to the real return on equity and to the cost of capital is evaluated. Technical indicators such as price momentum, RSI, relative performance and volume analysis is used as part of the investment process.
Stock selection is undertaken by trigger events (such as a company earnings announcement) leading to a rapid fundamental reappraisal of a company and a consequent decision whether to buy/sell/take no action.
This investment process illustrated in the diagram below:
The most important part of the process :
Our proprietary database is our key competitive advantage. This is because comparing our earnings forecasts for the leading stocks to the consensus enables us to identify whether a company’s earnings are likely positively or negatively to surprise the market. Equally our detailed economic forecasts for each of the six key countries in the region are compared to consensus estimates to ascertain whether markets are likely to be positively or negatively surprised by the future direction of interest rates."
Tim McCarthy, Senior Portfolio Manager, "Valartis Funds (Lux) Eastern European Equities" (03.08.2011): "We have analysts on the ground, constantly visiting companies and management. We incorporate all of the data we gather into our own proprietary discounted cash flow valuation models to determine target prices. These models use our own discount factors which are a function of corporate governance risk, liquidity risk, sector risk, etc. We rely more on our own absolute valuation metrics than on relative value multiples. The annualized expected return to our target price is the primary factor we consider for stock selection, but the desired portfolio is optimized for liquidity since our funds are open ended."
Alexandra Richter, Co-Fondsmanager, "Allianz RCM Emerging Europe - A - EUR" (03.08.2011): "Wir betrachten die Region in einem globalen Kontext. Die Osteuropäischen Unternehmen sind mittlerweile eben auch in hohem Masse in weltwirtschaftliche Zusammenhänge eingebunden. Das Emerging Markets-Team wird unterstützt durch 70 auf Sektoren spezialisierte Aktienanalysten, die eine globale Perspektive bieten.
Im Rahmen unseres aktiven Managementansatzes fokussieren wir uns dabei auf Unternehmen, die Marktanteile gewinnen und langfristig nachhaltiges Wachstum erzielen. Für die Unternehmensanalyse ist der direkte Kontakt zu den Märkten und Unternehmen für uns sehr wichtig. Regelmäßige Reisen in die Region ermöglichen es uns, die Unternehmen vor Ort zu treffen. Wenn wir uns mit einem Unternehmen beschäftigen, sind die Entwicklung des Markets, die Marktstellung und das Wettbewerbsumfeld, die Finanzstärke des Unternehmens und insbesondere die Einschätzung des Managements wichtige Elemente. Wir meiden Unternehmen mit unglaubwürdigem Management, überspannter Bilanz oder zweifelhaftem Geschäftsmodell."
Mikael Rosenbeck, Portfolio Manager, "Jyske Invest Turkish Equities" (02.08.2011): "We believe that financial markets are efficient in the long run and that valuation is the key to successful stock-picking. In our mind, however, short-term markets are not efficient due to human behaviour. Academic research shows that the existence of behavioural errors can lead stocks to trade away from their fair value over time.
We see a combination of fundamental valuation and behavioural finance as a key to success. In implementing our philosophy we focus on one type of company to buy: attractively priced quality companies with surprisingly strong earnings momentum. This together with structured teamwork provides us with a strong buy-and-sell discipline.
We choose our holdings using a bottom-up approach by combining quantitative screening, fundamental analysis and risk assessment. We call our philosophy and equity investment process VAMOS. Please find below a description of our process.
Investment Process
VAMOS is our in-house developed and unique investment process for share selection. The name derives from the words VAluation, MOmentum and Strength. Those are the three parameters which determine whether a share is eligible for one of our equity portfolios.
The objective is to identify the shares with the highest potential for return. We examine:
• whether the share is undervalued, that is, whether its market value is lower than its fair value (VAluation);
• whether the company has exceeded market expectations about earnings for a period (MOmentum);
• whether the company reports high and stable earnings (Strength).
Quantitative screening and qualitative selection of shares
Our investment process is a focused bottom-up process which rests on quantitative screening of shares and subsequent qualitative assessment of each of the shares selected. The process, which has been divided into three steps, is run every week to ensure the best possible portfolio mix at all times.
The quantitative screening is based on a combination of factors which in 17 out of 19 years had a positive effect on the return. But investors should note that past performance and results are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
We have developed our own factor model which is a screening tool for quantitative identification of potential additions to our portfolios. The qualitative evaluation is executed by all our portfolio managers in cooperation. Our portfolios are composed of the best shares selected with a view to optimising the risk/return ratio."
Aivaras Abromavicius, Member of the Portfolio Management team, "East Capital Osteuropafonden" (04.08.2011): "5 portfolio managers and 10 analysts visit over 1000 companies per year in more than 20 Eastern European countries. It is very important to visit companies, see everything with own eyes, meet CEOs and CFOs. Sell side research in Emerging Europe is either biased, poor and non-existent, especially when it comes to medium and smaller size companies and less liquid markets like Balkans, Baltics, or Ukraine. We manage very diversified portfolios and hold 157 names in our Eastern European fund. We also invest in 19 countries vs only 5 in the index and believe smaller countries often offer very interesting opportunities. We also are medium and small cap biased as we see greater earnings growth potential outside the blue chip universe."
Markus Brück, Senior-Portfoliomanager, "Metzler Eastern Europe" (02.08.2011): "Neben einer detaillierten Unternehmensanalyse (Bottom-Up) ist auch eine Einschätzungen des makroökonomischen Umfelds (Top-Down) erforderlich.
Unser Ansatz legt einen besonderen Focus auf die Fundamentalanalyse von kleinen und mittelgroßen Unternehmen sowie auf Randmärkte (Rumänien, Baltikum Kaschstan). Hier sieht das Fondsmanagement ein hohes Potential zur Alphagenerierung."
Question 3
e-fundresearch: "Which countries and sectors are currently over- and underweighted?"
Aziz Unan, Fondsmanager, "Griffin Ottoman" (02.08.2011): "The fund is not benchmarked and does not follow any indices. This allows flexible and dynamic asset allocation. In Aziz’ bottom up stock selection investment approach the key is to identify the leading companies in their respective sectors based on both quantitative and qualitative research rather than looking at the region on a sector or country level. Due to the overall growth opportunities in the region the real value added is found by looking at individual companies.
Longer term, Aziz is positive on countries such as Turkey, which has the largest allocation in the fund. This is partly due to demographics and continued political stability following a third term of single party government. In terms of sectors for example Turkish banks are well capitalized and primarily deposit funded, which gives them room for sustained growth without any funding issues and the sound banking system also survived the global financial crisis without government aid. At the same time, there are several industrial companies with strong cash flow generating capabilities and strong dividend yields."
Nick Barnes, Fondsmanager, "Nevsky Eastern European USD Inc" (03.08.2011): See attached Factsheet.
Tim McCarthy, Senior Portfolio Manager, "Valartis Funds (Lux) Eastern European Equities" (03.08.2011): "Currently, we are over-weight Russia and CIS and under-weight the CE3. We are over-weight domestic economy sectors and under-weight exporters. In Russia, Oil and gas makes up more than 60% of the market, but we generally have less than 30%, providing us with more capital to allocate to retail food, consumer goods, banking, telecoms, electrical utilities, etc."
Alexandra Richter, Co-Fondsmanager, "Allianz RCM Emerging Europe - A - EUR" (03.08.2011): "Wir schätzen derzeit Unternehmen, deren Geschäftstätigkeit vom Wachstum in Russland profitiert. Dies beschränkt sich dabei nicht notwendigerweise auf russische Unternehmen."
Mikael Rosenbeck, Portfolio Manager, "Jyske Invest Turkish Equities" (02.08.2011): "Our aim is to be sector neutral. Instead we are focusing on picking the best companies within each sector using our investment process – looking for companies that are cheap, with positive momentum and with strong earnings."
Aivaras Abromavicius, Member of the Portfolio Management team, "East Capital Osteuropafonden" (04.08.2011): "We are index agnostic and do not invest in line with any indices. We are very positive on Russia at the moment because of high commodities prices and also very low valuations. Yet we are 10% underweight because the index is so concentrated and Russia is over 65% of the total in there. We are traditionally underweight Poland by 8% as valuations there are always at a premium to neighboring markets. We have invested a total of almost 25% outside the index countries. Sector wise, we are under weight energy by 11% and overweight financials by 7%. We believe that one can get the best exposure to recovering economies through buying banking shares. Eastern European banks, unlike their Western counterparts, are actually seeing strong balance growth again. We are also under weight materials (mainly steel) by 5% and overweight consumer discretionary by 5% as well which is in line with our long term strategy of focusing of domestic consumption story that includes consumer goods companies, retailers, banks, etc."
Markus Brück, Senior-Portfoliomanager, "Metzler Eastern Europe" (02.08.2011): "Der russische Markt, der aufgrund unseres Ansatzes ca. ein Drittel ausmacht, wurde übergewichtet - insbesondere die Sektoren Öl, Gas und Stahlwerte. Im polnischen Markt sind wir untergewichtet. Wir sehen zwar die polnische Wirtschaft als sehr solide an, problematisch für den Aktienmarkt ist jedoch der aktuelle Überhang an Aktienplazierungen seitens des Staates. Des weiteren haben die Pensionsfonds durch die Pensionsreform weniger Mittel zur Verfügung und fehlen als wichtiger Käufer am polnischen Aktienmarkt. Wir investieren von daher in Ländern wie Estland und Rumänien, die eine deutlich höhere Wachstumsdynamik, attraktivere Bewertungen sowie ein größeres Überraschungspotential aufweisen. Die Ausrichtung des Fonds ist momentan eher zyklisch. In den Sektoren Energie, Rohstoffe, Banken sowie Konsumtitel sind wir über die gesamte Region übergewichtet."
Question 4
e-fundresearch: "Where do you see opportunities and where do you see risks and which impact could the European sovereign debt crisis have in the medium term?"
Aziz Unan, Fondsmanager, "Griffin Ottoman" (02.08.2011): "In the event of the debt crisis deepening, Central European countries like Hungary or Czech Republic that depend heavily on exports would suffer the most. On the other hand countries like Turkey or Poland which are more domestic driven should fair better relatively speaking.
In the medium term Russia will continue to be driven by commodity and oil prices. In terms of other countries, although Middle East and North Africa are in the investment universe, the fund does not have holdings in Tunisia, Egypt or other North African countries as they continue to struggle with internal issues."
Nick Barnes, Fondsmanager, "Nevsky Eastern European USD Inc" (03.08.2011): "Opportunities result from the strong economic growth that is being enjoyed by Germany (the key trading partner of the CE3 countries) as a result of buoyant Asian demand for its high end manufacturing exports. The impact that a fully blown European sovereign debt crisis would have on confidence (both within the core of Europe and globally) is the key risk over both the short and medium term."
Tim McCarthy, Senior Portfolio Manager, "Valartis Funds (Lux) Eastern European Equities" (03.08.2011): "We are re-focusing the fund on Russia and CIS growth stocks. In our region (including CE3 and the CIS), growth stocks tend to be smaller, less bureaucratic and less dependent on the state. The large cap value stocks are often still partially or even majority owned by the state, which generally reduces efficiency and involves a higher degree of corruption and theft. Furthermore, ETFs which are generally focused on the largest stocks, have pushed stock prices of large caps up, leaving small and mid cap stocks behind with higher expected returns for the future."
Alexandra Richter, Co-Fondsmanager, "Allianz RCM Emerging Europe - A - EUR" (03.08.2011): "Die Chancen liegen in einer Fortsetzung des Wachstums – und Konvergenzprozesses begründet. Die Risiken sind hauptsächlich externer Natur. Dazu gehört auch die Krise in der EU-Peripherie. Mögliche Übertragungsmechanismen auf die osteuropäischen Aktienmärkte sind dabei zum einen wie gesehen eine steigende Risikoaversion der Anleger und eine Eintrübung der allgemeinen Marktstimmung. Zum anderen könnte realwirtschaftlich ein geringeres Wachstum in der EU (oder auf globaler Basis) die exportorientierten Unternehmen treffen. Eine stärkere Abschwächung des globalen Wachstums könnte darüber hinaus über einen nachgebenden Ölpreis einen negativen Einfluss insbesondere auf den russischen Markt haben. Mittel- bis langfristig sehen wir jedoch die wichtigsten Volkswirtschaften als robust genug, um eine vorübergehende Eintrübung überstehen zu können. Die Märkte haben dabei bereits einiges an schlechten Nachrichten eskomptiert."
Mikael Rosenbeck, Portfolio Manager, "Jyske Invest Turkish Equities" (02.08.2011): "Although the crisis seems to be contained in the peripheral Europe for now, the possibility of shocks are still a threat. Although the spillover effect seems less likely after having secured a solution to the Greece debt issue, at least for the time being, vulnerability in other markets such as Italy, Portugal and Spain has not been completely contaminated yet. High debt ratios, deteriorating fiscal balances and austerity measures would lead to less financing and low growth in the region. On the positive side, slight recovery in the labor market in major markets such as Germany together with slight improvement in economic activity.
A European debt crisis would have more harm than good on Turkish economy in the first place but with its low debt level at around 40% of GDP and budget deficit expectedly below 2.5% of GDP in 2011, Turkey is likely to emerge as one of the most resilient economies in the region despite its current account vulnerability.
Main risk would be the current account financing in case of a sovereign debt crisis as it mainly depends on portfolio flows and short term borrowing, while CBT reserves are around USD 90bn and CBT’s precautionary stance against a sharp capital outflow with its tools in hand, namely; policy rate and interest rate corridor, would help in reducing the costs of an immediate downturn. CBT today reiterated that they wouldn’t refrain from using all monetary policy tools on the loosening side if unrest in global markets gets severe.
On the positive side, political stability, strong fiscal position, growth potential, still low levels of inflation and interest rates are the main factors that keep Turkey close to an investment grade. Its efforts to differentiate its export markets (e.g. exports to EU declined from some 57% in 2007 to 46% while Iraq rose to 4th in rank in Turkey’s exports as of 2011), government’s strategical efforts to place Turkey as an energy corridor in the region and government’s new industry strategy based on lowering the dependency of exports on imports are the main factors that will secure the country a more sustainable growth path in the forthcoming years."
Aivaras Abromavicius, Member of the Portfolio Management team, "East Capital Osteuropafonden" (04.08.2011): "We believe there is particularly good value in Russian shares at the moment because of low valuations. Turkish market has sold off, economy is doing very well (with some signs of overheating, though) and offers good value as well. Some of the smaller markets in the Balkan region are less liquid but not less interesting as many of them still trade 60-70% off the pre-crisis levels. The risks for Eastern Europe are largely external, very global and are related to Eurozone debt crisis, US debt debate and health of the Chinese economy. Any of these risks materializing is negatively affecting risk appetite and hence demand for emerging market equities."
Markus Brück, Senior-Portfoliomanager, "Metzler Eastern Europe" (02.08.2011): "Wir gehen davon aus, dass die europäische Schuldenkrise an Bedeutung über die nächsten Monate abnehmen wird. Wenn sich der Markt wieder an Wirtschaftsdaten orientiert und der Risikoappetit ansteigt, sollte dies vorteilhaft für Osteuropa sein. Eine deutliche Abschwächung in Westeuropa würde auch Osteuropa treffen."
Question 5
e-fundresearch: "Please comment on the performance and risk parameters of your fund in the current year as well as over the past 3 and 5 years."
Aziz Unan, Fondsmanager, "Griffin Ottoman" (02.08.2011): "During the volatile market environment in the current year the Turkey-centric fund has outperformed the ISE National 100 Total Return Index by over 10 percentage points in Euro terms (as at 27 July 2011). While the index was down 19.8% the fund was able to limit its loss to 9.1% (all in EUR terms). Over the current year the fund has employed active currency and index hedging strategy to reduce volatility and to limit downside and the fund’s volatility has been significantly lower than for example that of the Turkish index. This together with successful stock selection has contributed to the fund’s performance.
Over three years the fund has returned 19.0% and over five years 25.3%. The fund’s historical volatility over the periods compared to the ISE National 100 Total Return Index has been consistently lower. Since inception on 3 January 2006 the fund has outperformed both the MSCI Emerging Markets Index as well as the Turkish ISE National 100 Total Return Index. (all in EUR terms as at 27 July 2011)
The fund has won the €uro Fund Award two consecutive years (2010 and 2011) and holds the top five star “Overall”, “3-year” and “5-year” Morningstar ratings. Aziz Unan was also recently awarded Citywire A rating for long-term risk-adjusted performance."
Nick Barnes, Fondsmanager, "Nevsky Eastern European USD Inc" (03.08.2011): "The fund has performed well this year relative to it´s peer group. This is because we have been significantly underweight in Turkey (the largest current source of risk in the fund relative to the benchmark) due to its high external deficit and unattractive company valuations."
Tim McCarthy, Senior Portfolio Manager, "Valartis Funds (Lux) Eastern European Equities" (03.08.2011): "The Valartis Eastern European Equity Fund, (which is being re-named the Valartis Russia & CIS Growth Fund), has gone through several changes over the last few years and will continue adapting to market conditions. It has gone from being virtually passively managed, to active asset allocation on a geographic basis and now we are focusing on a growth bias. With these changes, it is hard to pick a single benchmark for relative performance metrics. As of 01.08.2011, the Fund’s 3 year performance was 14.83%, beating the Bloomberg Active Index of Funds in the peer group by 20.45%. Over the last five years the Fund’s return was 22.41%, beating the Bloomberg Active Index for Funds peer group by 22.41%. The Fund beta to the MSCI Emerging Europe Index is 0.715 and the Fund’s annualized volatility (30d) is 9.98%, while the MSCI Emerging Europe Index annualized volatility (30d) is 14.43%. So, I am pleased to say that on both absolute and relative metrics, the Fund has out-performed."
Alexandra Richter, Co-Fondsmanager, "Allianz RCM Emerging Europe - A - EUR" (03.08.2011): "Die osteuropäischen Aktienmärkte unterlagen starken Schwankungen in den letzten Jahren. Nach dem Rückschlag in 2008, hat der Fonds hat eine ausgesprochen starke positive Entwicklung in 2009 gezeigt. Der Anteilswert verzeichnete mehr als eine Verdopplung. Wir hatten dabei aus der Krise heraus eine deutlich offensivere Positionierung eingenommen, von der der Fonds anschließend profitierte. Auch in 2010 zeigten die osteuropäischen Schwellenländer noch eine starke Entwicklung (+25%). Seit Jahresanfang 2011 kam es jedoch zu einer Verlangsamung. Die bisherige Entwicklung ist leicht negativ. Die Krise in Nordafrika/dem mittleren Osten, globale Inflations- und Wachstumssorgen und die Krise des Euro belasteten die Märkte weithin. Nichtsdestotrotz war die Entwicklung auf Unternehmensebene durchaus positiv, so dass sich aus Bewertungssicht aus unserer Sicht eine attraktive Konstellation ergeben hat."
Mikael Rosenbeck, Portfolio Manager, "Jyske Invest Turkish Equities" (02.08.2011): "The YTD performance has not been impressive. The primary reasons behind the lagging performance is the unorthodox monetary policy introduced in late 2010, turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa, and the debt issues in Europe and USA.
Performance past 3 years: The Turkish equity market has outperformed the Global EM and European EM. The primary reason behind the impressive performance is that the country has been in a positive development driven by increasing domestic demand. Furthermore the ruling party, AK-party, brought economic stability to the country.
The ISE100 has advanced by 57% (EUR) in the last five years and 33% (EUR) in the last three year period despite the chain of events which took place globally thus pulling down the performances of developed and emerging markets. The robust performance of the 2006-2007 period was literally wiped out with the global crisis of 2008."
Aivaras Abromavicius, Member of the Portfolio Management team, "East Capital Osteuropafonden" (04.08.2011): "Due to a rally in oil stocks this year and a large share of Russia in the index, it has proven rather difficult to match index gains. Our fund is up 1.25% YTD, while the benchmark index is up 8.1%. We are considerably ahead of the index, however, for 3, 5 year periods and since the inception. The fund is up 574.84% since the inception vs 277.86% for the index. For 5 years we are up 29.22% vs 2.76% for the index. We have achieved this with similar volatility as index in the past 3 years and considerably lower one in the first 3 years of the fund."
Markus Brück, Senior-Portfoliomanager, "Metzler Eastern Europe" (02.08.2011): "Im aktuellen Jahr profitierte der Metzler Eastern Europe von seiner defensiven Positionierung und zeitweise hohen Kassequote. Dadurch konnten größere Verluste im Zuge der sich zuspitzenden europäischen Staatsschuldenkrise sowie der weltweiten wirtschaftlichen Abschwächung im Frühjahr 2011 vermieden werden. Betrachtet man die Wertentwicklung über die vergangenen 3 Jahre, so hat ein frühzeitiges Umschichten des Portfolios in konjunktursensitive Länder und Sektoren im Frühjahr 2009 zu einer signifikanten Outperformance im Vergleich zur Benchmark geführt.
Auf längere Sicht (3-5 Jahre) hat sich ausgezahlt, dass der Metzler Eastern Europe Fonds bezüglich des Universums eine sehr breite Anlagepolitik fährt (Frontier-Markets) und nicht im Wesentlichen von der Situation am Russischen Aktienmarkt abhängig ist."
All performance data per 25.07.2011
