e-fundresearch: "Which factors had most impact on the Russian stock market in the last few months and which will be the most important for the coming 12 months?"
Aivaras Abromavicius, Partner and Member of the Portfolio management team, "East Capital Rysslandsfonden" (07.12.2011): "Since this spring the Euro crisis and the global gloomy sentiment which resulted from this has affected Russian markets negatively and we have seen the RTS index pretty correlated to the VIX (index that measures the global volatility) during the same period.
For the coming 12 months we think that the economic situation in Europe and also in the US will remain the main focus among investors and hence impact most other markets including Russia. However, macro fundamentals in Russia are sound, and we expect that the market could rebound when the VIX index comes down and investors start focusing on fundamentals. We believe that oil price will stay high for the coming at least 6 months, which will also support the market in general. Presidential elections should be a non-event, but the international community will pay more attention this time due to the parliamentary elections issues that occurred in December."
Petr Zajic, Fund Manager, "Pioneer Funds Austria - Russia Stock T" (06.12.2011): "In the last couple of months key factors were increasing worries about global economy growth (slowdown in Emerging Markets and increasing risk of recession mainly in Europe) , deepening sovereign debt crisis in Eurozone and earnings revisions on company levels. The same things will play an important role in the coming months as well. Of course oil price and other commodities will also be very important for the Russian market."
Matthias Siller, Fondsmanager, "Baring Russia A USD Acc" (07.12.2011): "In den letzten Monaten waren globale Wachstumsaussichten, Rohstoffpreise und die Budgetpolitik die treibenden Faktoren. Zukünftig werden dies Innenpolitik, Reformagenda, Privatisierungsagenda und die Rohstoffpreise sein."
e-fundresearch: "Which are the most important elements in your investment process and which benchmark is used?"
Aivaras Abromavicius, Partner and Member of the Portfolio management team, "East Capital Rysslandsfonden" (07.12.2011): "We believe in active portfolio management and combine stock picking with a thematic top-down approach. The Russia investment team spend a significant portion of their time in Russia, meeting with companies and their management. This informational edge provides them with the ability to access companies and to invest in companies that are only to a limited extent covered by external research and benchmark indices. Our fundamental approach focuses on stocks with low P/E ratios and high dividend yields or otherwise robust values in assets. When selecting securities, we look for triggers that can lead to stock price revaluation.
Our benchmark: MSCI Russia total return (net)."
Petr Zajic, Fund Manager, "Pioneer Funds Austria - Russia Stock T" (06.12.2011): "We are using MSCI Russia 10/40 as a benchmark."
Matthias Siller, Fondsmanager, "Baring Russia A USD Acc" (07.12.2011): "Wir glauben, dass bei Aktien eine Anlagestrategie, die auch auf dem Ansatz des "Wachstum zu einem vernünftigen Preis" (Growth at a Reasonable Price/GARP) beruht, langfristig zu sehr guten Ergebnissen führt. Im Rahmen unseres Ansatzes konzentrieren wir uns auf das Herausfiltern positiver Gewinnüberraschungen und Bewertungskennzahlen mittels des Fundamentalresearch.
Wir suchen nach Unternehmen und Märkten, deren attraktive Wachstumsaussichten in ihrem Kursniveau noch nicht vollständig eingepreist sind. Unsere Aktien-Portfolios sind breit diversifizierte und auf Large Caps ausgerichtete Portfolios, die üblicherweise über dem Marktdurchschnitt liegende Wachstumskennzahlen haben und zu Marktpreisen bzw. mit einer vernünftigen Prämie bewertet sind.
Unsere Wachstumskriterien treffen auf Unternehmen zu, bei denen das Wachstum des Gewinns pro Aktie zu den Top-60% ihres Anlagesegments gehört. Beim Kauf von Aktien, die zu den teuersten 20% ihres Anlagespektrums zählen, gehen wir sehr selektiv vor. Für unsere GARP-Aktienportfolios wird das Bewertungsniveau des Portfolios im allgemeinen zwischen 90% und 120% des Bewertungsniveaus des Referenzindex liegen.
Unser systematischer Investmentprozess bei Aktien umfasst
• Fundamentales Aktien-Research und -Analyse vor Ort, um hausintern Gewinnvorhersagen treffen zu können und relative Zielvorgaben für das Bewertungsniveau aufzustellen;
• Quantitative Analyse und Screening, um unser Research zu fokussieren und Kauf- und Verkaufsmöglichkeiten zu erkennen;
• disziplinierte und risikobewusste Portfoliostrukturierung, um unsere Anlageüberzeugungen an die Anlageziele unserer Kunden anzupassen; und
• hervorragende Ausführung mit geringen Streuverlusten sowie automatisierte Compliance-Überprüfung sowie eine Prozess-Steuerung sowohl vor als auch nach Transaktionen.
Die Vergleichsindex des Baring Russia Fund ist MSCI Russia 10/40."
e-fundresearch: "Which over- and underweights are currently held in the fund?"
Aivaras Abromavicius, Partner and Member of the Portfolio management team, "East Capital Rysslandsfonden" (07.12.2011): "We are underweight Energy (44,7% vs 59,2% in the index) and Materials (6,9% vs 13,4%). We are overweight Consumer discretionary (7% vs 0%), Industrials (6,4% vs 0%) and Financials (16,3% vs 14,2%). These are quite structural differences compared to the index, as we have a long term view of Russias economy and market, we tend to be more exposed to domestic themes than the index (numbers as of 31-10-2011)."
Petr Zajic, Fund Manager, "Pioneer Funds Austria - Russia Stock T" (06.12.2011): "Currently our main long term overweight is in Consumer names, but also Energy and Financials are overweight. Telecoms and Materials we are underweight."
Matthias Siller, Fondsmanager, "Baring Russia A USD Acc" (07.12.2011): "Wir halten derzeit Übergewichtung in heimischer Konsumnachfrage, Financials, Industrie-Infrastruktur und Materials/Mining.
Neutral sind wir in Öl/Gas positioniert. Untergewichtet halten wir die Sektoren Versorger und Telecom."
Frage 4
e-fundresearch: "Please comment on the performance and risk parameters of your fund in the past year as well as over the past 3 and 4 years."
Aivaras Abromavicius, Partner and Member of the Portfolio management team, "East Capital Rysslandsfonden" (07.12.2011): "Thanks to our long term approach and active management, the East Capital Russian fund has strongly out-performed the index since its inception in 1998: 1223% vs index: 567%, making it the best performing Russia fund for that period.
The performance of Russian Fund over 1 year rolling in USD -10,9%, over 3 years: 142,2% and over 4 years: -31,88% (as of 30-11-2011).
The volatility as of 30-11-2011: 32% (based on monthly data over 3 years)."
Petr Zajic, Fund Manager, "Pioneer Funds Austria - Russia Stock T" (06.12.2011): "In 2011 fund is underperforming benchmark mainly because of our exposure to Consumers, stock selection in Materials and also because of some technical reasons (for example good relative performace of largest benchmark holdings which technically need to be underweight because of 10% issuer limit etc.). But the same things were behind very good relative performance in the previous years. From long term perspective we still see our main idea in the portfolio - bet on consumer growth - intact."
Matthias Siller, Fondsmanager, "Baring Russia A USD Acc" (07.12.2011): "Über die letzten 3-4 Jahre erwirtschaftete der Barings Russia Fonds ein besseres Ergebnis als der Durchschnitt des Marktes (hiermit ist eine representative Peergroup an Russlandfonds gemeint). Der Fonds wieß in den letzten 4 Jahren einen ex-ante tracking error von 6-10% gegenüber der Benchmark aus."
Frage 5
e-fundresearch: "What are currently the most important opportunities and risks for investors in the Russian equity market?"
Aivaras Abromavicius, Partner and Member of the Portfolio management team, "East Capital Rysslandsfonden" (07.12.2011): "Opportunities:
- Russia’s macro fundamentals are solid which will matter when investor sentiments will turn around. Inflation is close to all time low in Russia and we believe it will continue to fall next year, which should give room for interest rate cuts. Russia has one of the lowest public debt levels in the world at 10% of GDP and the mortgage per capita in Russia is EUR 130 (in Germany it is EUR 14 000 and in Sweden EUR 25 000).
- We think commodity prices will stay high enough to give support to the Russian economy and market next year.
- The recent announcement that Russia is expected to join the WTO in 2012 after 18 years of negotiations will be a positive shock for the economy, it is expected to add roughly 1pp GDP growth per year, and will improve investor perception.
- The valuations in Russia are historically low (4,8 P/E 2011) both in absolute terms and relative other emerging markets
Risks:
- There are obvious external downside risks. Reduced growth prospects in US and Eurozone, resulting in lower oil prices will hit Russian exports but the RUB is more flexible now and should absorb more. The financial turmoil in the Eurozone can continue to put pressure on emerging economies like Russia even though there are few direct linkages between Russia and Eurozone. Eurozone exports and FDI are less than 10% of Russian GDP and there is very limited Eurozone external debt and bank ownership."
Petr Zajic, Fund Manager, "Pioneer Funds Austria - Russia Stock T" (06.12.2011): "We think that Russian market is offering similar growth as other Emerging Markets (maybe slightly lower GDP growth but Russian companies achieved highest earnings CAGR among all markets worldwide in last 10 years) with much cheaper valuation (traded at 5,4 times earnings, with P/B below 1, ROE above 23%, dividend yield over 3,5% vs. PE 10,9, P/BV 1,6, ROE 20,6 and dividend yield 3,1% for MSCI Emergign Markets). But investors still see Russian market as high beta market currently also affected by Eurozone crisis."
Matthias Siller, Fondsmanager, "Baring Russia A USD Acc" (07.12.2011): "Der russische Aktienmarkt ist derzeit der am attraktivsten bewertete Aktienmarkt. Neben diesem relativen Argument sticht weiters hervor dass der russische Markt auch verglichen zu historischen Bewertungsniveaus sehr billig erscheint. Daher scheint das bei weitem größte Potential in einer Normalisierung der Bewertungsniveaus in Russland zu liegen. Diese wiederum werden durch die Risikoprämie des Marktes definiert. Was den russichen Markt deutlich von anderen Märkten unterscheidet ist, dass es letztendlich in der Hand der russ. Regierung und Unternehmen liegt zu demonstrieren, dass diese enorm hohe Risikoprämie nicht gerechtfertigt ist. Wir erwarten, dass die unmittelbare Zukunft in Russland beweisen wird, dass erfolgreiche corporate governance und eine investitionsfreundliche Politik im Interesse des russ. Staates liegen. Es liegt also eine win – win Situation vor, ein Umstand der uns sehr positiv in Bezug auf die zu erwartenden Entwicklungen macht."
Alle Performance Daten per 28.11.2011:
