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Fund Update: Allianz Energy - A - EUR

Das folgende Fund Update bietet einen Rückblick auf die Performance des Fonds über die letzten sechs Kalenderjahre sowie über die aktuelle Entwicklung. Der Fondsmanager Chris Wheaton zeigt die wichtigsten Punkte des Investmentprozesses und seiner Strategie auf. Funds | 29.05.2012 04:30 Uhr

Investment Universe, Process, Strategy and Benchmark – How does the Fund Manager invest? (ISIN: DE0008481854)

Chris Wheaton: "The Allianz Energy Fund invests on a fundamental basis to gain access to the themes within the energy space which we find attractive. We have both long and short term themes that we establish and by way of fundamental research, we choose the best single stocks to gain the desired exposure. We have a global energy research resource with specialist energy investors based in the US, Asia and London. Our in house economists provide up to date analysis of the macro economic backdrop globally, which allows our investment themes to be better informed by this context.

The energy team invests dynamically, but has a scheduled weekly meeting in which to discuss the investment performance drivers, potential investments, validity of themes and the macro environment. This meeting also incorporates risk reviews and the compliance with investment controls.

Benchmark is MSCI World Energy, which represents a global cross-section of the global energy industry."

Performance Review 2005

Ute Speidel: "In 2005 the fund performed well, and would have performed even better than benchmark if not for the significant depreciation in value of the US dollar during that time. This performance was driven by the fund’s positions in medium size oil producing companies and the oil service industry, both of which benefited substantially as oil prices rose from $0 per barrel to $60 per barrel during the year."

Performance Review 2006

Ute Speidel: "The fund underperformed benchmark as oil prices did not continue their expected rise in value despite much higher than forecast levels of oil consumption in the developing world. Oil prices actually ended the year slightly below the $61 per barrel they had started the year at. A number of companies also started to experience the effects of inflation in the supply chain, both in oil producers but also service companies but also the oil service companies, whose margin expansion was not as fast as expected."

Performance Review 2007

Chris Wheaton: "The fund benefited from its holdings in the oil services industry particularly this year, as oil prices rose consistently from $60 per barrel at the start of the year to $95 per barrel by year end. Companies exposed to the US natural gas market, where prices rose almost as much as in the oil market, also did well. Large oil companies, by contrast, continued to underperform the energy index and the fund reduced its exposure to them during the year."

Performance Review 2008

Chris Wheaton: "In 2008, the world and particularly the energy industry experienced extraordinary volatility. The oil price continued its rise from $95 at year end to its peak of $147 per barrel on 3rd July 2008, despite clear signs of reductions in economic activity from April onwards. AS these signs became clear, the fund became increasingly more conservative, increasing its weightings in major oil companies and reducing its holdings in oil service sand small and medium sized oil companies. The second half of 2008 saw the “credit crunch” and oil prices collapsing from levels that were clearly too high to just $34 per barrel in December 2008, a price which was clearly too low. Exxon was the biggest single contributor to the underperformance in 2008, because even holding 10% of the fund (the legal maximum) in Exxon still meant the fund was underweight a stock which outperformed by 40% in that time."

Performance Review 2009

Chris Wheaton: "As oil prices reached levels which were clearly too low at the end of 2008 and early 2009, the fund became much less defensive and increased its holdings in both oil service and oil exploration companies. These outperformed significantly as economies recovered from their “near-death” situation and the oil price nearly doubled in the year, from nearly $40 per barrel to $77 per barrel by year end."

Performance Review 2010

Chris Wheaton: "2010 saw oil prices decline in the first three-quarters of the year then rise sharply from September, reaching $95 by year end and $100 per barrel just after year end, the highest oil price since September 2008. The fund positioning was aggressively long of oil service companies, which were seeing the first signs of revenue recovery and margin improvement, hence the underperformance in the first half of the year but strong outperformance from September onwards."

Performance Review 2011

Chris Wheaton: "Equity markets were driven by economic fears throughout 2011 and this mean that the fund’s natural underweight in big oil companies- which outperformed the market in this period- caused underperformance for the fund. Those big oil companies that the fund did own were the cheaper Eurozone oil companies, which performed worse than their US competitors due to fears over Eurozone breakup, especially in 3Q11. There were also disappointing exploration results from some small size exploration companies in Poland and West Africa."

Performance 2012 - Year-to-Date

Die frühere Entwicklung ist kein verlässlicher Indikator für künftige Ergebnisse. Der Ausgabeaufschlag zur Abgeltung der Ausgabekosten für die A EUR beträgt zzt. 5,00 % (bis zu max. 6,00%) des Wertes eines Anteiles. Die Verwaltungsgebühr für die A EUR beträgt zzt. 1,50% (bis zu max. 2,00%) des Fondsvermögens jährlich. Die Administrationsgebühr für die A EUR beträgt zzt. 0,30% (bis zu max. 0,50%) des Fondsvermögens jährlich.

Chris Wheaton: "The main influence on the good performance in the past six months are two-fold:
Equity markets seemed to be no longer just driven by macro-economic fears, so the long-term positive drivers of energy equities- increasing demand for energy from the developing nations as populations grow larger and richer- are more obvious. These long-term investment drivers shouldn’t go away.
Stockmarkets have been in panic and are creating great buying opportunities in energy equities. This factor, combined with the stockpicking skill behind the fund, should generate significant profits for fund shareholders. For example,  Saipem- a world-leading oil services business- has risen over 40% in value since purchase in September last year against a rise in the Eurostoxx600 of just 15%.
This potential for the fund to perform well was always there, but equity markets did not allow that to happen thanks to the macroeconomic fears. Now, with markets acting in a more rational mode, stockpicking is delivering profits and significant index-beating returns for the Energy fund."

Performance since 2007

Die frühere Entwicklung ist kein verlässlicher Indikator für künftige Ergebnisse. Der Ausgabeaufschlag zur Abgeltung der Ausgabekosten für die A EUR beträgt zzt. 5,00 % (bis zu max. 6,00%) des Wertes eines Anteiles. Die Verwaltungsgebühr für die A EUR beträgt zzt. 1,50% (bis zu max. 2,00%) des Fondsvermögens jährlich. Die Administrationsgebühr für die A EUR beträgt zzt. 0,30% (bis zu max. 0,50%) des Fondsvermögens jährlich.

Outlook

  • Energy is one of the essential components of modern life, and yet there is only a small gap between supply and demand for oil
  • Demand for oil and gas is still rising fast:
  • 2011 still saw growth in oil demand despite reductions in economic growth forecasts, and the same seems to be happen in 2012
  • BRIC economies are increased oil consumption by 1Mb/d this year, China is only half of this
  • Other non-OECD economies grew their oil demand substantially again- concentrated in the Middle East (due to chronic power shortages), Latin America ex-Brazil and Central Asia
  • This growth in oil demand is despite OECD demand declining- so there really is a tight market in oil, growth in demand in the emerging economies is under-appreciated by the market
  • Future growth is likely to be split along similar lines as 2010:
  • BRICs should account for 50% of oil demand growth, of which China should be just over half
  • Other non-OECD should be the other 50% of demand growth
  • OECD oil demand should stay flat or possibly decline
  • This pattern of 1~1.5Mb/d of annual demand growth, and all outside the OECD, should last beyond 2015
  • The long-term drivers of oil demand remain strong: urbanisation, consumerisation, population growth
  • The world has enough oil reserves, the issue remains the rate of production growth versus the rate of demand growth
  • This enables very profitable investments to be made not just in new oil and gas exploration and development, but in the companies that deliver services into this industry too.
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