Die obige Tabelle ist eine Darstellung der besten zehn globalen Schwellenländer Aktienfonds - gereiht nach Sharpe Ratio 5 Jahre (insgesamt 260 Fonds in der gesamten Assetklasse - Lipper Global Equity Emerging Markets Global). Die Fondsmanager von Vontobel und Threadneedle haben die Fragen von e-fundresearch.com beantwortet. Keine Antworten wurden von den restlichen Top-10 Gereihten zugesandt. Die durchschnittliche Performance der Top-10 Fonds seit Beginn des Jahres liegt bei +15,48 Prozent.
e-fundresearch: "Welche Faktoren sind für die Beurteilung von Aktien in Schwellenländern derzeit am wichtigsten?"
e-fundresearch: "Welche Regionen und Branchen sind derzeit über- und untergewichtet?"
Rajiv Jain, Portfoliomanager, "Vontobel Fund Emerging Markets Eq B USD" (ISIN: LU0040507039) (13.09.2012): "Die Sektor- und Ländergewichtung ist lediglich ein Nebenprodukt unserer Aktienauswahl. Natürlich sind gewisse Länder oder Sektoren stärker vertreten als andere. So machen indische Aktien derzeit rund 24 Prozent, brasilianische 15 Prozent und britische 14 Prozent des Portfolios aus. Hinsichtlich der Sektoraufteilung sind rund 42 Prozent dem Basiskonsumgütersektor zuzuordnen. Mit rund 19 Prozent folgen Finanzwerte."
Irina Miklavchich, Fund Manager, "Threadneedle Global EM Eq Net Acc GBP" (ISIN: GB00B10SJD63) (06.09.2012): "Global economic growth remains sub-trend and risk appetite is likely to be fragile over the coming months. However, these factors are increasingly reflected in stock prices – indeed, Brazilian valuations are now discounting an ongoing slowdown in the local economy and, as a result, we have started to become less cautious on this market. Elsewhere, we continue to like structural growth stories in the ASEAN area as well as the Turkish and Mexican markets. Turkey is benefiting from a strong demographic profile with good opportunities in the consumer discretionary sector. Overweight: Thailand, Singapore, Russia, Turkey. Underweight: Chile, Taiwan, China, South Africa."
e-fundresearch: "Wie schätzen Sie das zukünftige Potenzial der BRIC-Staaten ein?"
Rajiv Jain, Portfoliomanager, "Vontobel Fund Emerging Markets Eq B USD" (ISIN: LU0040507039) (13.09.2012): "Indien und Brasilien gehören zu unseren Favoriten. Bei unseren Anlageentscheidungen lassen wir uns jedoch nicht von Zins- oder BIP-Schätzungen, sondern von dem Leistungsausweis und den Aussichten der einzelnen Unternehmen leiten. Unsere Kandidaten sollten sich generell in wechselnden Marktsituationen bewähren. Wir finden beispielsweise Nahrungsmittelverarbeiter wie Nestlé India attraktiv. Solche Unternehmen sind meist in der Lage, Konjunkturdellen schadlos zu überstehen. Zudem verfügen sie zumeist über gute Wachstumsaussichten in Schwellenländern und über sehr loyale Kunden."
Irina Miklavchich, Fund Manager, "Threadneedle Global EM Eq Net Acc GBP" (ISIN: GB00B10SJD63) (06.09.2012): "Over the last decade emerging markets have delivered stellar economic growth as their more competitive labour force has allowed countries, particularly in Asia, to take market share in areas such as manufacturing and services. Meanwhile the resource-rich economies of Russia, Brazil and South Africa have benefited from significant investment in the modernisation of Chinese infrastructure and real estate developments, which has led to a surge in demand for commodities. The wealth generated by these trends has created an emerging middle class in the developing countries. This, in turn, has become a growth driver as an army of emerging markets consumers have joined the global consumer force. The collapse of the socialist bloc has also unleashed further pent-up demand.
Today the balance sheets in emerging markets are much healthier than those in the developed world. This should lead to a lower discount rate for emerging markets and an expansion in financial multiples, yet emerging market equities trade on a lower multiple than the average over the last ten years. The key concern around emerging markets is whether the recent rapid pace of economic growth can be sustained. One of the risks is the retrenchment of consumers in the developed world. Emerging markets, particularly China, have to replace weakening export growth with stronger domestic demand. Rising real incomes in emerging markets are helping to stimulate domestic consumption; however, given the overall size of Chinese exports, the market is questioning the ability of the government to deliver a smooth transition. Fears of a ‘hard landing’ have resulted in a de-rating of Chinese equities. The Chinese government and the central bank have introduced or proposed a number of policies that should help to facilitate stronger consumption growth. Elsewhere in emerging markets consumption has become a key growth driver and, as the monetary tightening measures moderate, the market should feel increasingly comfortable about the sustainability of double-digit consumption growth rates in EM.
The growth of the emerging market consumer has been a prominent theme in our portfolios for some time, played principally through EM retailers, auto makers and branded goods manufacturers. Meanwhile, as standards of living improve across the emerging world, demand for healthcare is also witnessing secular growth."
e-fundresearch: "Werden globale Schwellenländer Aktienmärkte in den kommenden 12 Monaten den MSCI World outperformen?"
Rajiv Jain, Portfoliomanager, "Vontobel Fund Emerging Markets Eq B USD" (ISIN: LU0040507039) (13.09.2012): "Unser Hauptaugenmerk gilt auch hier den unternehmensspezifischen Faktoren. Ob Schwellen- oder andere Märkte outperformen, steht für uns nicht im Zentrum."
Irina Miklavchich, Fund Manager, "Threadneedle Global EM Eq Net Acc GBP" (ISIN: GB00B10SJD63) (06.09.2012): "Looking forward, there is a risk that emerging markets equities will experience further volatility, given the continuing uncertainty over the Global economic outlook and the Eurozone problems. However, any correction will provide a buying opportunity, given relatively attractive valuations and the positive long-term outlook for the asset class. Strong consumer demand and infrastructure spending should underpin economic growth in emerging markets, given the relatively low levels of consumer and government debt, and the healthy state of financial sectors compared with those in the developed world. Most emerging countries have been building up large cushions against external shocks, which makes them much more resilient in the current environment than they used to be during past crises. Importantly, EM policymakers also benefit from a lot more room to ease fiscal and monetary policies than their counterparts in advanced economies."
e-fundresearch: "Wo liegen aktuell die größten Risiken und Herausforderungen für Investoren in Schwellenländern?"
Rajiv Jain, Portfoliomanager, "Vontobel Fund Emerging Markets Eq B USD" (ISIN: LU0040507039) (13.09.2012): "Die Aussichten für die Finanzmärkte sind weltweit unklar. Dies geht auch an den Schwellenländern nicht spurlos vorbei. Wir sind aber überzeugt, dass wir dank unserem bewährten Investmentansatz die langfristigen Performance-Ziele erreichen werden."
Irina Miklavchich, Fund Manager, "Threadneedle Global EM Eq Net Acc GBP" (ISIN: GB00B10SJD63) (06.09.2012): "Chinese economic growth continues to slow. However, year-on-year comparisons are likely to improve towards the end of the year, and when key political changeover takes place in November we may see stronger stimulus measures being implemented should growth remain under pressure. Within the MSCI Asia ex Japan Index the Chinese stock market has been the weakest performer since July 2009 when credit tightening (after strong fiscal-led growth) was introduced by the authorities, leading to a de-rating of shares. Consequently valuations are attractive at this time. Key stocks likely to benefit from a recovery scenario are likely to be infrastructure and consumer discretionary stocks."
Alle Performance Daten der Top-10 Auswertung per 31.08.2012:
