Aus seiner Sicht erscheinen Kreditmärkte, insbesondere die Renditen von Unternehmens- und Schwellenländeranleihen, für ‚buy and hold’-Investoren attraktiv. Jedoch bleibt in diesen Anlageklassen die mangelnde Liquidität ein Problem.
Nachfolgend der vollständige Marktkommentar von Quentin Fitzsimmons:
Economic backdrop continues to deteriorate
Recent data has confirmed what we had long suspected, namely that the world’s major economies are well into an intense and synchronised slowdown. The synchronised nature of the downturn makes it difficult for the authorities to address via traditional methods such as cutting interest rates and boosting exports. The underlying core problem is that property prices continue to fall in the US and a number of other western markets. This shows little sign of abating.
Inflation or deflation?
The inflationary pressures that initially prevented central banks in the UK and Europe from cutting interest rates aggressively are now a distant memory and rates have been slashed accordingly. Indeed, although some commentators highlight the long-term threat of a rapid reacceleration in inflation, we see deflation as a more significant shorter-term prospect given the ongoing weakness of labour and asset markets.
Unconventional measures
The threat of deflation and the limited efficacy of monetary policy as rates approach zero has led the UK and US authorities to conclude that more unconventional tools will be required. Chief among these is quantitative easing, whereby central banks purchase government and corporate bonds in a bid to drive yields lower and hence persuade borrowers to re-enter the market. This process has now begun in the UK.
Demand versus supply
At the same time, issuance of government bonds is reaching unprecedented levels as the authorities seek to fund the support packages that they have announced. The ebb and flow created by this high issuance, high repurchase environment is likely to create significant short-term two-way volatility in government bond prices and some auctions might not go as well as others.
Long-term government bond bull market intact
Given the continued falls in headline inflation, we still believe that government bond yields are in a long-term downtrend so we remain biased towards long duration at the moment.
Opportunities in credit
Spreads of corporate and emerging market bond yields over treasuries remain at very extended levels, suggesting higher levels of default than we foresee. As such, we believe that these markets represent good value for investors that are prepared to buy and hold and can bear significant short-term volatility.
Summary
Negative growth and minimal inflation support our continued positive long-term view on government bonds. Having lowered interest rates aggressively, authorities are now turning to less conventional measures such as quantitative easing. The extent and timing of the positive impact of this policy on the economy is not yet known and the short-term effect on markets may be heightened two-way volatility. We are currently positioned cautiously, with funds making modest use of their risk budgets and focusing on high quality, highly liquid investments. While credit markets represent good value for buy and hold investors, liquidity remains a problem.
