The situation with Greece remains very fluid and the decision by S&P to downgrade long-term debt to BB+ from BBB+ is a negative event for investors. This means that Greece is now rated at the sub-investment grade level by S&P (although not by Moody’s or Fitch yet).
Currently markets are in a panic mode with mounting fears of a contagion effect to other countries in the Eurozone. Accordingly, there is very little liquidity in the European government debt markets. A number of investors are forced sellers at this stage because of the downgrade and current market prices are reflecting the lack of liquidity and these distressed sales.
Greece’s fiscal position is very weak and recent market developments mean that the country would find it very difficult to finance itself in the international capital markets. As such it is extremely important that the EU/IMF deal to prove assistance to Greece is mobilised. At this stage, investors seem to be concerned about the German government’s stance towards providing Greece with aid (perhaps as a result of the upcoming German regional elections) and also the precise details of the conditions of the aid to Greece.
What we know is that the aid agreed (estimated at EUR45 billion) is sufficient to finance the bulk of the Greek government’s financing needs for the next 1-2 years. Secondly, we know that EU members have a greed in principle to providing the aid. Third, we know that the Greek government is attempting to put in place a fiscal program that will deliver a primary budget surplus over the next few years. This is in the face of substantial political opposition to the planned cuts in public spending and employment.
A barrier to the disbursement of the aid and to more explicitly supportive commentary for Greece is the German political situation and the requirement of IMF conditionality to get a detailed plan in place. We think that these two obstacles will be overcome in the next couple of weeks. Market commentary suggests that further details of the aid package – including an indication of when the first tranche of funds from the EU and IMF will be disbursed – will be forthcoming in the next few days. A restructuring or a default of Greek government debt remains a low probability event for this year in our view, although admittedly the odds have increased.
Associated to our view that a financial resolution of the current Greek woes should be expected, the risk of further contagion to other countries in the Eurozone is seen as low. Nevertheless, the downgrade of Portugal´s public debt by S&P (to A-) and the subsequent widening of spreads do call for caution at this stage.
Our core view is that Greece will not default or be forced to restructure its debt. Financial aid from the IMF and EU will be forthcoming in the coming weeks and this will be sufficient to fund Greece’s borrowing for the next year. Beyond that investors will need to be reassured that Greece will be making progress on dealing with its financial problems.
