Marktrückblick und Ausblick
The Fund returned +2.9% in July, with realized volatility of 11.9%. During the month, the MSCI World index gained +3.1% in EUR, the JP Morgan global government bond index lost -0.9% in EUR and the GSCI commodities total return index actually gained +2.8% in EUR.
We increased the risk of our portfolio during the correction in June and made little or no change to our portfolio in July. A large part of our performance comes from the Eurozone bank equities that had a rebound in July, after being the main culprit behind poor performance in June.
Eurozone bank equities recovered most of their losses of June and were the main driver behind the +2.4% performance of the equity sector strategy. Stabilizing bond markets worked in favor of banks. The valuation of the banking sector is attractive, the yield curve is very steep and the ECB stands ready to help.
German and Italian bond yields steadied in July. We are now fully invested in bonds again and the strategy delivered 0.8% in July.
Japanese equities were slightly negative in July. The BOJ intends to double the money base within two years, after an equity bear market that lasted for more than 20 years. The price to book ratio of equities had reached their lowest level in more than 40 years shortly before QE started. The Nikkei has only rallied 31% in USD since its bottom in November 2012, providing further ample upside.
Our negative stance on German and French equities, as a hedge to our Japanese and Eurozone bank equity exposure cost us -0.6% in July.
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