Lesen Sie den gesamten Original Kommentar von Lucy O'Carroll:
"Alexis Tsipras’ resignation marks the beginning of another chapter in the Greek crisis. It is ironic that it has come in the same week as the German Parliament approved the rescue package. But the prospect of autumn elections in Greece does not come as much of a surprise, given the divisions seen within the governing Syriza party in recent weeks and months. The manner in which Prime Minister Tsipras made his move was somewhat unexpected, though. The consensus had been that he would call a confidence vote after the summer break, which would lead eventually to elections later in the autumn. By moving early and avoiding any confidence vote, Mr Tsipras has given the hard left within his own party less time potentially to create a new party, or to organise within the existing Syriza framework. He has also avoided any damage to his credibility that might have come from the loss of a confidence vote.
If elections in September therefore result in a Tsipras-led coalition government based on support from other, pro-bailout parties and with the hard-left element of Syriza and the current Eurosceptic Independent Greek coalition party left out in the cold, the country’s creditors will not shed any tears. In simple terms, they are willing to trade some short-term delay to reform implementation in the run-up to the elections for a more stable and reform-minded coalition beyond September. Of course the risk remains that the Greek electorate will not produce a creditor-friendly result. Were the outcome to strengthen the position of hard-left or hard-right parties, leaving Mr Tsipras and the centrist, pro-bailout parties weakened, this would call the credibility of the bailout agreement into immediate doubt. So polling in the run-up to the elections is likely to be closely watched by all concerned.”
Lucy O’Carroll, chief economist, Aberdeen Asset Management
