Warum dies einen günstigen Einstiegszeitpunkt für langfristig orientierte Anleger darstellen kann, erfahren Sie im aktuellen Perspectives bzw. in der folgenden Zusammenfassung:
Factors influencing a favourable outlook
An improving trade account – the reduction in imports as the recession took hold was significant, but the shale energy revolution has already dramatically cut US energy imports.
A better fiscal position – helped by US economic growth and a reduction in military expenditure. The IMF forecasts that the US government’s net borrowing will decline to a manageable 4.1% of GDP by 2015.
A return to normal monetary policy – irrespective of its precise timing, ‘tapering’ will happen, which should be dollar-positive. The on-going recovery means that the US is likely to be the first major region to effectively begin tightening monetary policy. An extended period of global monetary policy divergence should boost the relative attractiveness of the US dollar.
Investment implications
Positive for US equities - a strong currency should make US investors more favourably disposed to their home market. The recent experience of weakening emerging market currencies should re-enforce this trend.
Positive for Japanese equities - the yen/dollar exchange rate matters the most to Japan. The determination of the Bank of Japan’s QE-type actions makes a compelling case for further yen depreciation versus the dollar, which in turn strongly supports the case for Japanese equities.
Less favourable in the short term for emerging markets – those with large external account deficits, such as India and Turkey, have seen sharp falls as their currencies have come under pressure. These developments have largely been driven by the prospect of monetary and interest rate normalisation in the US. Dollar strength is also a concern for commodity-reliant countries as it means lower receipts.
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