Anna Stupnytska, Global Economist bei Fidelity, sieht den gestrigen Wahlausgang als Marktauftrieb. Der Euro verbucht Kursgewinne gegenüber dem US-Dollar und der japanische Yen sowie französische Anleihen performen gut. Le Pen könnte die zweite Wahlrunde potenziell noch immer gewinnen. Zudem ist es noch zu früh, Markterleichterungen zu erkennen.
Victorie de Trofoff, Portfolio Manager, FF - European Fund, sagt, dass die Wahlprognosen durchwegs einen Gewinn für den Zentristen Emmanuel Macron vorausgesagt haben und dies die Anleger beruhigen sollte. Trogoff sieht eine doppelte Herausforderung für die Märkte: Macron befürwortet steuerliche Orthodoxie während Le Pen die Defizite im Konjunkturprogramm durch Haushaltsdefizite und verschärften Protektionismus erhöhen würde. Obwohl die Mehrheit der Franzosen den Euro behalten will, würde ein Wahlsieg von Marine Le Pen bewirken, dass der Forex-Markt das Risiko eines Euro-Austritts einpreisen würde. Das Ergebnis der ersten Wahlrunde wirkte sich, wie erwartet, positiv auf das Risikovermögen aus. Die Märkte werden sich nun auf Unternehmensergebnisse konzentrieren und Fundamentaldaten werden wieder die treibende Kraft werden.
Auch Vincent Durel, Portfolio Manger, FF - France Fund, bezeichnet den Ausgang der ersten Wahlrunde als erwartet. Weiters beschreibt er dies als exzellente Nachrichten für die Märkte und Emmanuel Macron als Beruhigung für Investoren. Seine Wirtschaftsplattform fokussiert auf permanente Kürzungen von Lohnsteuern, Reduktionen öffentlicher Defizite sowie Wachstumsmaßnahmen und Förderungen der Unternehmerschaft durch eine begünstigte Steuerpolitik. Bezugnehmend auf die bisherigen Wahlumfragen sieht Durel den Sieg Emmanuel Macrons in der zweiten Runde als sehr wahrscheinlich und somit einen positiven Einfluss auf alle europäischen Aktienmärkte.
Die ungekürzten Originalzitate der Experten:
Anna Stupnytska - Global Economist
„Markets will be buoyed by the positive outcome of the French election last night, with the centrist Emmanuel Macron going on to face the far right Marine Le Pen. This is not just because Macron is likely to win. Concerns over polling reliability and the turnout rate have been allayed after Sunday’s strong figures and markets reacted positively to the result in Asian trading this morning, with the euro up against the US dollar and Japanese yen and French bonds performing well.“
„However, Le Pen could still potentially win the second round. It is probably too early for markets to see a big relief rally just yet or indeed, for the ECB to send any signals on tapering its bond purchase programme this week. The focus now will be on whether Le Pen changes her anti-EU messages in the next few days, with the Le Pen-Macron debate scheduled for 3 May.“
Victoire de Trogoff - Portfolio Manager, FF - European Fund
„As the polls predicted, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will face off in the second round. This should reassure investors, as the polls have consistently predicted a win for the centrist Macron under this scenario. The markets (equities, fixed-income and forex) will now point to who they believe the winner will be in the second round, scheduled for 7 May.“
„The challenge to the markets is two-pronged: Macron advocates fiscal orthodoxy, while his opponent would widen deficits through fiscal stimulus and exacerbated protectionism. The direct impact will be priced into the OAT-Bund spread, which would widen sharply if Le Pen were to win, continuing the trend begun late last year. Meanwhile, Macron is pro-European, while the sovereignty-minded Le Pen has cast doubt on keeping France in the EU. While the vast majority of the French (70%) want to keep the euro, the forex market would begin to price in the risk of the euro’s demise, bidding the single currency down if Le Pen wins, something that had not occurred during the campaign.“
„The outcome of the first round, which was closely followed by the financial world, is good news for risk assets (equities vs. bond, banks vs. consumer goods, domestic companies vs. international groups, cyclicals vs. defensives, EUR vs. USD, etc.), but was as expected. In a survey of investors just prior to this first round, 82% of respondents predicted a Macron victory. Only 48% of respondents had reduced their exposure pending the vote. And most of them believed that the ECB was waiting for the worst-case scenario (with Le Pen or Jean-Luc Mélenchon within striking distance of a win) to recede before getting back on track with phasing out their ultra-accommodative policy.“
„What the markets will now be focusing on, and if Macron wins the second round, are corporate results. With this in mind, initial first quarter 2017 releases are encouraging and likely to lead to further upgrades in forecasts. Fundamentals will now be able to reassume their driving force.“
Vincent Durel - Portfolio Manager, FF - France Fund
„As expected, Emmanuel Macron has got through to the second round of the French presidential election. This is excellent news for the markets, even though it had already been priced in.“
„Emmanuel Macron is a pro-European, centrist reformer, which will provide considerable reassurance to international investors. His economic platform aims to make the economy more productive through permanent cuts in payroll taxes, reductions in public deficits, growth measures and encouragement of entrepreneurship via accommodating tax policy. These measures are likely to contribute positively to France’s economic outlook, as well as business and consumer confidence. However, this positive scenario is conditional on a Macron victory in the second round and a stable majority in the legislative elections.“
„In the second round of the presidential election, Macron is highly likely to win the day against Marine Le Pen, judging by all polls taken since the start of the presidential election.“
„So we can look forward to an outperformance of the financial sector in France and Europe in the coming days, as political risk recedes, something that will benefit all European equity markets.“
