Archiv-Beitrag: Dieser Artikel ist älter als ein Jahr.
What lessons have you learned from 2015?
2015 has provided a vivid reminder that volatility is inherent in credit as an asset class. Credit markets have had a more challenging year than expected primarily due to two factors:
First, weaker government bond markets in Europe. Given that much of the year was given over to discussing potential rate rises in the US, one might have expected weak US government bond markets, yet rates in the US have largely been rangebound. Meanwhile, in Europe, a sharp rise in yields in April and early May only served to reiterate that government bonds are not a risk-free asset class as 10-year Bund yields moved from 0.07% to almost 1.00%*. Total returns in credit markets have been hampered by these unexpected moves in government bonds.
Second, the impact of the late stage of the credit cycle in the US. This year has been characterised by rising merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, much of which has been debt-financed and has resulted in heavy new issuance in the US. In fact, at US$170 billion, May was the largest month on record for USD investment grade new issuance. We have also seen a rise in idiosyncratic risk away from the M&A market over the course of the year: The fallout at scandal-hit auto manufacturer VW is the most obvious example, but there are also a number of oil & gas and commodity related credits that have suffered, such as Glencore, where the strength of its business model has been called into question.
*Source: Bloomberg.
Are you more or less positive than you were this time last year, and why?
We are less positive but continue to see interesting opportunities. Loose central bank monetary policy has not been as supportive for credit this year as in recent years. Low commodity prices are also likely to hurt borrowers and the pain is being felt outside the energy complex in mining conglomerates, emerging market debt and companies that service commodity sectors.
We are less positive but continue to see interesting opportunities. Loose central bank monetary policy has not been as supportive for credit this year as in recent years. Low commodity prices are also likely to hurt borrowers and the pain is being felt outside the energy complex in mining conglomerates, emerging market debt and companies that service commodity sectors.
The deterioration in credit quality in the US is also worrying. The combination of higher borrowing and less bondholder-friendly activity means we have to be even more discriminatory entering 2016 than we were when entering 2015. This appears to be manifesting itself in a more jittery market, with volatility significantly higher this year than in previous years.
What are the key themes likely to shape your asset class going forward and how are you likely to position your portfolios as a result?
The themes that have dominated 2015 are likely to be our travelling companions in 2016, i.e. global central bank policy direction, commodity prices, emerging market conditions and rising idiosyncratic risk.
The themes that have dominated 2015 are likely to be our travelling companions in 2016, i.e. global central bank policy direction, commodity prices, emerging market conditions and rising idiosyncratic risk.
In terms of what this means for the portfolio, we will continue to set great store in our bottom-up security selection and are likely to make greater use of shorts via credit default swaps. After a period of mixed messages from the Fed, we would hope to see more consistent language on rate direction, otherwise interest rate volatility is likely to increase. Since volatility is likely to be a feature of 2016, we would seek to exploit this by taking smaller, more nimble positions than in 2015.
We are set to enter 2016 with yields and spreads higher in aggregate than at the same stage at the end of 2014. In part, this is to be expected, given our view that we are in the latter stages of the credit cycle, particularly in the US, hence our ongoing underweight position to the US market. Spread widening has created pockets of value, however, and, from our perspective, the increase in idiosyncratic risk has a useful side effect as it allows for greater alpha generation from good security selection, something that is more challenging when credit markets move in unison. Prospects for identifying value are stronger lower down the credit spectrum, so we would expect to maintain our preference for BBB rated bonds over AA/A.
Thank you!
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