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JOBS CONUNDRUM CLOUDS IMPROVING US ECONOMY:
“The US economy’s one major question mark concerns the state of the labour market. Nonfarm payroll figures for December were well below consensus expectations, while a drop in the unemployment rate to 6.7% from 7.0% in November was seen as reflecting a further decline in the participation rate rather than any inherent improvement in the jobs picture.”
Chart 1: US Job Creation
Change in US Nonfarm Payrolls
January 2011-December 2013
“We think there is a relatively sound basis for believing that bond yields are unlikely to rise as much in 2014 as they did in 2013. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose to over 3% at the very end of 2013, compared to a low point of 1.63% set in May, as the market sought progressively to adjust to changes in the Fed’s quantitative easing programme. But the adjustments have largely been made at this stage—so the thesis goes—meaning the scope for further large increases in interest rates could be limited, especially as much of the improvement in the domestic, consumer-led economy is being driven by the wealth effect caused by financial market and home-price gains, while fundamental wage growth has remained soft.”
Chart 2: Interest Rates (%)
10-Year US Treasury Yield-Daily Yields
January 2012-December 2013
A DIFFERENTIATED PICTURE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY:
“…The question is whether the generally positive trends established in the last couple months of 2013 will remain in place. We think there are plenty of reasons to believe they can.Low base interest rates in the developed world, forward indicators showing that global economic growth has been gaining momentum, and generally healthy corporate fundamentals all provide a positive backdrop. Changes in banking regulations mean that it is hard for us to imagine a rerun of the financial crisis of 2007–2008, at least in the developed world.”
Chart 3: Global GDP Growth (%)
Quarter-Over-Quarter Annualised
2012-2015 Estimate
*World Bank members.
EUROPEAN OUTLOOK
“The European economy started 2014 on a bright note, with indications of a strong rebound in business activity, while eurozone retail sales made the biggest monthly jump in 12 years in November. According to the composite PMI compiled by Markit, activity in Europe’s manufacturing sector rose in December at its fastest pace since mid-2011, while services activity also rose, albeit at a slower pace."
Table 1: Unemployment rates in selected Eurozone countries
“In essence, however, it may turn out that Europe is not the master of its own destiny this year. Apart from the uncertainty that hovers over some large emerging markets that have been helping drive European export growth, there is the question of rising market interest rates. We believe one of the most negative scenarios for Europe would be a rise in market rates that dashes hope for growth in southern Europe, potentially sparking another spike in government bond yields and renewed political instability.”
Chart 4: 10 Year Government Bond Yield Spreads over German Bonds
1 Year Period Ended 31 December 2013
