Economics Forum: Wirtschaftswachstum 2014 - Inflation oder Deflation in Europa?

Current question in the Economics Forum:

"What is your estimate for economic growth in the most important regions and sectors of the global economy and do you expect inflationary or deflationary trends in Europe next year? Which macroeconomic factors should investors monitor most in 2014?”

"The consensus arguments that the global business cycle will strengthen next year primarily supported by better American and European economies are quite convincing. Fiscal policy will not be as tight and most economies have taken important steps in the right direction since the global crisis hit five years ago. There is one very strong reason why today’s already low inflation will continue to slowly decline. The expected real growth rates are insufficient to close the output gaps until well into the second half of the decade. Everywhere low capacity utilization rates will slowly pull prices towards deflation.

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Global Multi Strategy – Strategy update

Seien Sie dabei, wenn Alistair Sayer, Client Portfolio Manager im Multi Strategy Team, am Donnerstag, 18. April, sein Quartals-Update zur Global Multi Strategie gibt und seine neuesten Markteinblicke...

18.04.2024 15:00 20 Min. Alistair Sayer

There is one important exception to the reasoning above. Germany’s output gap is the lowest within the Eurozone and will be wiped out in 2015 (according to OECD in November). The German prices may soon be pulled in the other direction. This is the market solution – deflation in the crisis countries and inflation in Germany – in order to keep the Eurozone together."

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