Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum:
"Wie schätzen Sie das Wirtschaftswachstum in den wichtigsten Regionen und Sektoren der Weltwirtschaft im kommenden Jahr ein und erwarten Sie in Europa inflationäre oder deflationäre Trends? Welche makroökonomischen Faktoren sollten Investoren in Europa im Jahr 2014 am meisten beachten?"
„A year ago, global real money supply growth was rising and exceeded output expansion. This signalled that economic prospects were improving and there was “excess” liquidity available to boost financial markets. 2013 duly proved a better year for the global economy than 2012 – annual industrial production growth in the G7 and emerging E7 economies rose from 2% in the fourth quarter of 2012 to an estimated 4% a year later. Most risk assets, of course, performed well. Current monetary signals are less favourable. Real money growth is still respectable but has declined from a peak reached in spring 2013. With economies strengthening, it no longer exceeds output expansion. The suggestion is that solid economic momentum will carry over into early 2014 but will fade as the year progresses, while markets no longer enjoy a liquidity tailwind. Central banks are unlikely to deliver additional stimulus against a backdrop of improving labour markets and stable or firmer inflation – monetary trends do not support “deflation” fears. Investors, in summary, should prepare for a more difficult year.”