Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum:„Wie beurteilen Sie die überraschende Aufhebung des Euro-Mindestkurses durch die Schweizerische Nationalbank und auf welche Implikationen sollten sich Investoren nun besonders genau fokussieren?“
Current Question in the Economics Forum:
“How do you assess the Swiss national bank’s surprising decision to abandon its currency cap with immediate effect and on which implications should investors especially focus going forward?”
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“Last Thursday the Swiss National Bank (SNB) abandoned its exchange rate cap against the euro, which had been set at EURCHF 1.20. Instead, the SNB announced a new lower overnight deposit rate, -0.75% from -0.25%, and a managed float. The SNB hoped that these changes would be neutral in relation to monetary conditions but the 15% appreciation in the CHF trade weighted index has tightened policy dramatically. As a result, at least in the very near term, the SNB decisions have failed to achieve their desired effect.
The implications of these developments are widespread. Firstly, liquidity in foreign exchange has fallen dramatically and is causing an acute increase in volatility. Secondly, it is likely that other pegs will come under a little pressure. The Danes have had to intervene and cut interest rates to try to resist DKK currency appreciation. Similar pressure on the USDHKD peg is not expected to change HKMA policy. Thirdly, the market now expects the ECB to deliver a significant QE programme and the EUR is therefore likely to remain on a weaker trend. Finally, the currency induced tighter monetary conditions will intensify deflationary pressures in the Swiss economy and further hurt Swiss exporters.
The cost of holding reserves to the tune of 88% of GDP was seen as too much for the SNB when flows out of the Euro (post QE announcement) could accelerate. Nevertheless, the costs of currency appreciation and subsequent deflation may prove even more painful to the Swiss economy if left unchecked.”