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Die besten gl. Schwellenländer Anleihenfonds

Die Fondsmanager der besten globalen Schwellenländer Anleihenfonds haben exklusiv fünf Fragen zu ihrer Markt-Einschätzung, dem aktuellen Niveau der Spreads, sowie den Performances und Gewichtungen beantwortet. Welchen Anteil repräsentierte die Titelauswahl? Funds | 09.04.2012 04:30 Uhr

e-fundresearch: "Which fundamental factors are currently the most important ones when you assess global emerging markets bonds?"

Thomas Brund, Portfoliomanager, "Sydinvest Emerging Mkts Local Currency Bonds" (ISIN: DK0060406833) (03.04.2012): "Currently, the general perception of risk aversion in the markets is important and has been an increasing factor since the crisis in 2008. Global growth and inflation momentum are other important factors. On a country level, public debt and budget developments as well as the political will to reform is of key importance. These factors plus a number of other country specific factors are incorporated in our country score model COSMO which we successfully have used as an important decision making tool in our country selection." Stefan Grünwald, Fondsmanager im Team Global Emerging Markets and Eastern Europe (Fixed Income), "Raiffeisen-EmergingMarkets-Rent R A"  (ISIN: AT0000636733) (04.04.2012): "Aktuell steht das Wachstumsbild im Mittelpunkt der Marktüberlegungen, insbesondere wird auf Industrieproduktions- und Einzelhandelsumsatzdaten in der Markteinschätzung geachtet. Vorübergehend spielen aufgrund steigender Rohstoffpreise natürlich auch das Inflationsbild und die Kerninflation eine Rolle in der Betrachtung. Die Handelsbilanzen sind aktuell weniger wichtig, weil sie bei den meisten Emerging Markets ohnehin positiv ausfallen."

Damien Buchet, Fondsmanager, "AXA WF Global Emerging Markets Bonds A C (EUR)"  (ISIN: LU0251658026) (04.04.2012): "The global macro backdrop remains key to assessing emerging Markets prospects. Key global event risks seem to have taken a vacancy for now (Eurozone imminent collapse and US recession & fiscal crisis). Also, we maintain that markets are not prepared for a likely disappointment regarding China growth and property sector sustainability, this is not the consensus view for now. This has allowed markets to re-focus on EM fundamentals and we are happy with what we see so far. The growth-inflation tradeoff remains sustainable and we maintain that policy credibility remains high on both the fiscal and monetary policy fronts, and fundamental visibility remains very good in many areas. Some Central banks show signs of targeting growth over inflation, which is a concern (in Brazil and Turkey) in which case we like their inflation-linked bond markets. We also have a lot of reservations on select countries whose fiscal and financing dynamics are deteriorating fast (Ukraine, Argentina, Hungary?); However, these remain isolated cases and unlikely to trigger a widespread aversion to EM risk."

Frank Ehrich, Senior Portfoliomanager, "UniEuroRenta EmergingMarkets" & "RenditeSpezial-Invest" (ISIN: LU0149266669)  (04.04.2012): "Solide Staatsfinanzen verschaffen den Regierungen dieser Länder Handlungsspielraum, um auch noch zukünftig antizyklisch auf eine Konjunkturabschwächung zu reagieren. Dies wird von den Ratingagenturen durch einen eher aufwärts gerichtete Ratingpfad honoriert und verbessert – im Gegensatz zu den Industrienationen – die Refinanzierungsbedingungen der Schwellenländer.

Darüber hinaus ist der Netto-Neuverschuldungsbedarf der Emerging Markets im laufenden Jahr weiterhin moderat. Ein großer Teil des für 2012 vorgesehenen Neuemissionsvolumens ist zudem bereits in den ersten Monaten am Markt platziert worden. Angesichts der reichlich zur Verfügung stehenden Liquidität werden attraktiven Anlagemöglichkeiten weiterhin gesucht.“

Ralph Gasser, Produktspezialist Fixed Income, "Julius Baer BF Local Emerging-USD B" (ISIN: LU0107852195) (29.03.2012): "For most parts of 2011, the performance of risk assets – including hard and local emerging markets bonds – was dominated by factors which were largely non-emerging markets related, namely the western sovereign debt crisis, liquidity and solvency concerns for European banks, or indeed the natural and nuclear disaster in Japan. This, in turn, led to a “flight-to-liquidity” and a “flight-to-perceived-quality” not seen since the darkest days after the Lehman fallout. As the visibility regarding the future path of global growth remains somewhat reduced in light of western austerity and de-levering measures as well as the re-capitalisation of the banking system, financial markets remain prone to temporary returns of elevated short-term volatility. This forces investors to remain alert – besides fundamental and valuation considerations – to such market technical considerations.

However, with the extreme levels of investor distress seen during the second half of 2011 moderating and normalizing again and market participants increasingly re-focusing on fundamentals again, the following underlying factors will in our view be key to emerging markets bonds and currencies:

1. The relative strength of emerging markets growth versus a recovering US economy and a lingering Eurozone
2. The past of commodity prices
3. The potential return of inflationary pressures across emerging markets after the marked recent cyclical slowdown
4. The relative strength of emerging markets debt dynamics versus a de-leveraging western world
5. The successful management of a soft landing in China
6. Global liquidity and risk conditions

Besides valuation considerations, most of these fundamental factors should continue to play out in favour of emerging markets."

 

 

 

 

 


e-fundresearch: "What is your assessment of the current emerging markets bond spreads?"

Thomas Brund, Portfoliomanager, "Sydinvest Emerging Mkts Local Currency Bonds" (ISIN: DK0060406833) (03.04.2012): "Currently we think that emerging markets bond spreads are very attractive.

The spread between EM hard currency and US Treasury is high given that average credit rating is higher than ever. Credit ratings have improved partly because emerging markets countries are not facing the debt overhang problems like many developed countries face; especially in the Eurozone. Debt levels in emerging markets countries are on average 30-40% of GDP compared to over 100% of GDP in the Eurozone, the US and Japan.

The spread between local currency yields and US Treasuries is close to all time high even though the EM Central bank’s are better equipped and able to control inflation than before the crisis because they act on stronger macro fundamentals compared to their developed counterparts."

Stefan Grünwald, Fondsmanager im Team Global Emerging Markets and Eastern Europe (Fixed Income), "Raiffeisen-EmergingMarkets-Rent R A" (ISIN: AT0000636733) (04.04.2012): "Das aktuelle Niveau der Emerging Markets Anleihen Spreads ist historisch betrachtet attraktiv, aber auch hinsichtlich des aktuellen Zinsniveaus sind Schwellenländer Anleihen derzeit interessant. Die Spreads liegen in etwa bei 330 Basispunkten, das Zinsniveau zwischen 5 % und 5,5 %. Bewertet man das Niveau anhand der fundamentalen Faktoren der Schwellenländer, müssten diese wesentlich tiefer handeln. Im Vergleich zum VIX-Index (Risikoindikator) sind die Spreads recht hoch."

Damien Buchet, Fondsmanager, "AXA WF Global Emerging Markets Bonds A C (EUR)" (ISIN: LU0251658026) (04.04.2012): "Both EM sovereign and corporate bond spreads retain a lot of value, on both a cross-market and historical standpoint. Sovereign Index spreads are currently around 330bp over US Treasuries for a 7 year average duration and a BBB-average rating. At 380bp, EM corporate bonds, which represent 2/3 of the 1800 bn USD EM hard currency credit market, are trading at a 50bp spread premium to sovereign despite a shorter average duration (5.5 years) and a better rating at BBB. These compare very well to  US or European investment grade credits, as EM corporate exhibit lower net debT/EBITDA and more visible cashflow growth prospects than their developed market peers at almost every rating bucket. On a historical basis EM hard currency credits, both sovereign and corporates yield between 2.7 and 3x more than equivalent duration US treasuries, a yield ratio which was only reached during periods of crises in 2001 and 2008, at times where EM ratings were much lower, in the BB range. After the strong spread tightening move in January and February, markets may pause for breath as the primary market remains very active. However, we think that another 50bp of tightening is in the offing, to barely reach the June 2011 spread levels."

Frank Ehrich, Senior Portfoliomanager, "UniEuroRenta EmergingMarkets" & "RenditeSpezial-Invest" (ISIN: LU0149266669 (04.04.2012): "Nach einer erfreulichen Wertentwicklung in den ersten beiden Monaten dieses Jahres tendierten die Märkte für in US-Dollar und Euro notierte Hartwährungsanleihen zuletzt weitgehend seitwärts. Dennoch hielt die gute Grundstimmung auch im März weiter an. Das Interesse der Investoren hat sich in den vergangenen Wochen in erster Linie auf Neuemissionen konzentriert. Viele Anleger sind auf der Suche nach attraktiven Anlagegelegenheiten und daher zunehmend bereit, sowohl in länger laufende Titel als auch in Schuldner mit schlechterer Kreditqualität wie Argentinien oder  Venezuela zu investieren.“

Ralph Gasser, Produktspezialist Fixed Income, "Julius Baer BF Local Emerging-USD B" (ISIN: LU0107852195) (29.03.2012): "Prior to the abrupt blow-out in risk premiums in August 2011 to levels of close to 500 basis points in October 2011 (based on the JPMorgan EMBI Global Index), spreads previously traded around the 300 basis points mark for more than one year. At the current level of approximately 340 basis points, we certainly see further room for a first tightening to 275 to 300 basis points, while strategically, underlying debt and credit dynamics would warrant much lower levels in the 200 to 225 basis points region, even more so as the credit matrix of emerging markets continues to outperform the western world."

 

 

 

 

 

  

e-fundresearch: "Is it currently attractive to invest in emerging markets local currency bonds? In which countries do you see opportunities and where are the risks?"

Thomas Brund, Portfoliomanager, "Sydinvest Emerging Mkts Local Currency Bonds" (ISIN: DK0060406833) (03.04.2012): "Structurally we see a shift from low-yielding developed markets to high-yielding emerging markets. There is an increasing interest for these markets and the institutional as well as retail investors are generally low exposed to the asset class. If you combine that with the fact that the spread between local currency yields and US Treasuries is close to all time high, you then have the ingredients for a successful long-term investment.

We see opportunities in Brazil, Mexico and several less researched African countries. Furthermore we see opportunities in Mongolia and Serbia. We are cautious on Indonesian valuations even though the countries fundamentals and development is positive. In addition, we are not comfortable with the economic and political developments in Hungary."

Stefan Grünwald, Fondsmanager im Team Global Emerging Markets and Eastern Europe (Fixed Income), "Raiffeisen-EmergingMarkets-Rent R A" (ISIN: AT0000636733) (04.04.2012): "Ja, aufgrund attraktiver Zinsspeads und langfristig aufwertender Währungen. Auch die guten Verschuldungszahlen spielen eine maßgebliche Rolle sowie die intakte Wachstumsstory und die positiven Leistungsbilanzen vieler Schwellenländer. In Asien sehen wir derzeit ein Aufholpotenzial bei Währungen und sind deshalb dort besonders positiv, speziell für Malaysien und Indonesien. Aber auch die Entwicklungsaussichten des Mexikanischen Peso sind vielversprechend. Kurzfristig würden wir derzeit aus politischen Gründen den Ungarischen Forint meiden."

Damien Buchet, Fondsmanager, "AXA WF Global Emerging Markets Bonds A C (EUR)" (ISIN: LU0251658026) (04.04.2012): "The long term argument to be invested in local currencies remains extremely powerful. From a global standpoint, emerging countries are the place where growth potential is the most visible and productivity gains are most easily extracted. This, coupled with a more responsible policy framework, and lower macroeconomic volatility sanctioned by better credit ratings. This potential has not been reflected enough in the real exchange rates appreciation of many EM currencies, which remain in a 0 to +10% appreciation range since 2005 in real terms, with few exceptions. The negative global risk environment has delayed this revaluation process over the past 5 years.
In the short term however, after the strong January rally in EM currencies, we are now in a range bound environment, as the US appears to be leading the more positive global growth prospects, while China appears to be slowing.  As long as this repricing of expectations lasts, it may be difficult for EM currencies to make much headway , but we believe that this could clear up in the 2Q12, to provide an extra 4-5% average nominal appreciation of EM currencies.
We continue to like commodity currencies like the RUB, or Latin american currencies generally (BRL, COP, PEN). In the short term, we are also comfortable with Asian currencies which are at the forefront of a pick-up in US activity, in Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and Korea.
Regarding local interest rates we think that,  with an improved global backdrop, yields have the potential to rise somewhat, although we differentiate between local curves behaving like "rates" markets, and others more "credit-like". The two "rates" markets where we are long duration remain Mexico and South Africa, while we are paying rates in Korea and India. within "credit-like" local curves, we still like Russian local bonds and are reducing exposure to Indonesian local bonds, for lack of any risk premium."

Frank Ehrich, Senior Portfoliomanager, "UniEuroRenta EmergingMarkets" & "RenditeSpezial-Invest" (ISIN: LU0149266669) (04.04.2012): "An den lokalen Anleihemärkten bewegen sich die Renditen in einer engen Spanne um die 6,5 Prozent. Der für kurz laufende Lokalwährungsanleihen repräsentative JP Morgen ELMI+ verlor im vergangenen Monat rund ein Prozent. Grund hierfür war die insgesamt schwächere Währungsentwicklung der Emerging Markets gegenüber dem US-Dollar und Euro. Vor allem der brasilianische Real litt unter der Leitzinssenkung von 75 Basispunkten und wertete im März mit rund 6,5 Prozent deutlich ab. Die Zentralbank möchte damit den vergleichsweise hohen Zins von 9,75 Prozent senken, der bisher viele Investoren nach Brasilien lockte, was den brasilianischen Real unter Aufwertungsdruck brachte und sich damit negativ auf die Exportchancen auswirkte. Dieser Trend sollte noch etwas anhalten, bis der wirtschaftliche Aufschwung wieder stärker an Fahrt gewinnt. Dann sollten gerade Lokalwährungsanleihen wieder deutlichere Kursgewinne ausweisen können.“

Ralph Gasser, Produktspezialist Fixed Income, "Julius Baer BF Local Emerging-USD B" (ISIN: LU0107852195) (29.03.2012): "We maintain our constructive view on the asset class, i.e. being fully invested in the emerging market FX space with a structural bias towards Latin America and Asian FX. At the same time we run comparatively mild strategic emerging market credit longs as well as moderate emerging market rates sensitivity across the majority of markets – outside the LatAm region.

At the same time, and notwithstanding the combined boost to risk assets coming from a more dovish US Fed, the ECB’s LTRO activities, a lighter news flow from the European political front as well as a string of upside surprises on the economic front (both in the US and emerging markets), we remain alert to the tactical  “risk-off”/“risk-on” trade in light of still latent event risks hanging over Europe. Consequently we stay u/w Eurozone-proxy risks (i.e. Central Europe & Turkey).

In the FX space, we continue to run our pronounced o/w of LatAm/Asian FX vs. CEEMEA FX theme, albeit at tactically somewhat reduced levels. During February, we namely added to RUB and BRL at the expense of Asian FX (HKD, MYR, IDR, SGD) in light of potential further upside risks to oil prices, softer growth prospects for the Chinese economy, and relative valuations.

Key FX overweights are BRL, MXN, RUB, ZAR, PHP, UYU, CLP, PEN and KRW vs. underweights in CZK, ILS, TRY, INR, TWD and ARS.

The fund’s modified duration profile stands at 4.9 years. The portfolio’s weighted average credit rating (ex cash & cash equivalents), currently remains broadly range bound at a split A-/BBB+. 97% of all cash bonds are held in EM-domiciled issuers, made up in turn predominantly of sovereigns."

 

 

 

 

 

  

e-fundresearch: "Please comment on the performance and risk parameters of your fund in the current year as well as over the past 3 and 5 years."

Thomas Brund, Portfoliomanager, "Sydinvest Emerging Mkts Local Currency Bonds" (ISIN: DK0060406833) (03.04.2012): "In the current year we are 0.3% behind benchmark, primarily because we underweight high beta benchmark countries. Over the past 3 years we have a large outperformance of 5.7 %, which to most part comes from our successful country and securities selection. Over 5 a year period we have a slight underperformance because the 2008 crisis hit performance hard. The dominating factor driving the underperformance in 2008 was the mark-to-market of the fund’s Credit Linked Note (CLN) positions held with counterparty banks. Even though the fund’s holdings of CLN’s  were reduced from about 50 % to about 35 % from September 2007 to mid 2008, the fund suffered mark-to-market loss due to the freezing up of the CLN market, with subsequent aggressive marking down of CLN valuations by banks in November and December 2008."

Stefan Grünwald, Fondsmanager im Team Global Emerging Markets and Eastern Europe (Fixed Income), "Raiffeisen-EmergingMarkets-Rent R A" (ISIN: AT0000636733) (04.04.2012): "Der Emerging-Markets-Rent konnte in den letzten Jahren mit einer hohen Performance von knapp 13% p.a. und einer sehr geringen Volatilität aufwarten. Insbesondere seit der Krise zeigt die Assetklasse ein ausgezeichnetes Risikoertragsverhältnis und man sieht, dass Emerging Markets nur kurzfristig aufgrund von Liquiditäts- und nicht aus fundamentalen Gründen 2008 unter Druck standen. Als Overlay-Veranlagungen werden Währungspositionen gegen den USD und EUR umgesetzt, zudem wird die Spreadduration des Fonds in letzter Zeit leicht unter der der Benchmark gehalten."

Damien Buchet, Fondsmanager, "AXA WF Global Emerging Markets Bonds A C (EUR)" (ISIN: LU0251658026) (04.04.2012): "The 5Y gross performance of the fund (A C EUR Hedged share class) is very satisfactory, delivering +50.23% from March 31st 2007 till march 31st 2012, outperforming its benchmark by 10% over the period. The annualized volatility was also lower at 10.0% versus 11.4% for its benchmark. The Fund was very conservatively positioned at the onset of the 2008 crisis, which allowed for a lower drawdown than the market during the critical september-october period. It remained however conservativelymanaged during the first phase of the 2009 recovery, which explains a somewhat less positive gross performance over the 3 year period, at +54.7% versus +56.5% for the benchmark. However, the past two years have seen performance improve drastically (+12.75% vs +10.8% for the benchmark over 1 year, as at March 31st). This was achieved during a turbulent period in 2010 and 2011, dominated by global event risks in Europe and the US. The key for our success over the past two years was an ability to understand the top-down drivers of our markets and to timely adjust the risk and liquidity profile of the portfolio. We used all the leeways provided by our investment process, including allocations to EM corporate credits and local currency bonds, switches from high to low beta countries in the early summer 2011, before becoming more aggressive again in January 2012.
We retain a positive view of the drivers of EM risk appetite for now."

Frank Ehrich, Senior Portfoliomanager, "UniEuroRenta EmergingMarkets" & "RenditeSpezial-Invest" (ISIN: LU0149266669) (04.04.2012): "Im Rahmen der allgemeinen Erholungsbewegung an den Rentenmärkten der aufstrebenden Länder erzielte der UniEuroRenta Emerging Markets im laufenden Jahr einen Wertzuwachs von rund 3,5 Prozent, über 3 Jahre von 49 Prozent und über 5 Jahre von knapp 35 Prozent.

Ebenso konnte der RenditeSpezial-Invest mit 3,6 Prozent Wertzuwachs seit Jahresanfang, 46 Prozent in 3 Jahren und knapp 33 Prozent in 5 Jahren (Stand 29.03.2012) eine Wertentwicklung in einer angemessenen Schwankungsbreite erzielen.“

Ralph Gasser, Produktspezialist Fixed Income, "Julius Baer BF Local Emerging-USD B" (ISIN: LU0107852195) (29.03.2012): "The fund ranks in 1st quartile over virtually any time horizon since launch 12 years ago, be it year-to-date, over 3 years, 5 years, 7 or 10 years. This is ultimately also reflected in a long series of fund and manager awards received over the years, as well as the substantial and sustainable growth of assets under management in the strategy."

 

 

 

 

 

  

e-fundresearch: "Did your fund outperform or underperform vs. benchmark over the past 5 years and which part could be linked to securities selection (Performance Attribution)?"

Thomas Brund, Portfoliomanager, "Sydinvest Emerging Mkts Local Currency Bonds" (ISIN: DK0060406833) (03.04.2012): "In the period 2007-2011 the fund outperformed on a gross of fee level and underperformed net of fee. The dominant factor was due to securities selection related to the 2008 crisis. Since then the performance have been steadily building up with attribution coming from both country and securities selection."

Stefan Grünwald, Fondsmanager im Team Global Emerging Markets and Eastern Europe (Fixed Income), "Raiffeisen-EmergingMarkets-Rent R A" (ISIN: AT0000636733) (04.04.2012): "In den letzten 3 bis 5 Jahren gab es einen sehr starken Aufwärtsmarkt für Spread-Produkte. Die Finanzkrise von 2008/2009 hat in den Emerging Markets nur kurzfristig  negative Spuren hinterlassen, letztlich haben sich die positiven Fundamentaldaten durchgesetzt, was zu einem extrem guten Ertrag-Volatilitätsverhältnis geführt hat, also hohe Returns bei niedriger Volatilität zur Folge hatte. Die Outperformance gegenüber der Benchmark beträgt seit 2009 in Summe knapp 220 Basispunkte. Der größte Beitrag davon kommt aus der Länderallokation und den Währungs- Über- und Untergewichtungen. Die Titelselektion ist in diesem Fonds nicht so wichtig."

Damien Buchet, Fondsmanager, "AXA WF Global Emerging Markets Bonds A C (EUR)" (ISIN: LU0251658026) (04.04.2012): "The 5Y gross performance of the fund (A C EUR Hedged share class) is very satisfactory, delivering +50.23% from March 31st 2007 till march 31st 2012, outperforming its benchmark by 10% over the period. The annualized volatility was also lower at 10.0% versus 11.4% for its benchmark. The key drivers of performance are Market timing, ie the timely adjustment of the portfolio risk and liquidity profile across the whole cycle, allocating to EM sovereign, corporate credits in hard currencies, or to local currency assets. An important factor is also our ability to separately and tactically manage the main risk parameters of the Fund through the use of derivatives (UST futures for US Treasury duration, CDS for EM credit spreads, FX forwards for timely currency exposure).
Given the correlated nature of most sovereign credit curves in our benchmark, security selection plays a lesser role compared to country selection or asset class selection (gaining exposure to a country through corporate credit or local currency bonds)."

Frank Ehrich, Senior Portfoliomanager, "UniEuroRenta EmergingMarkets" & "RenditeSpezial-Invest" (ISIN: LU0149266669) (04.04.2012): "In einem insgesamt sehr anspruchsvollen Kapitalmarktumfeld konnten sich beide Fonds gut behaupten. So belegten die Sondervermögen über 5 Jahre Plätze in der oberen Hälfte ihrer Peergroup. Das aktive Management und die gezielte Titelselektion leisteten hierzu einen wichtigen Beitrag.“

Ralph Gasser, Produktspezialist Fixed Income, "Julius Baer BF Local Emerging-USD B" (ISIN: LU0107852195) (29.03.2012): "The fund has materially outperformed market returns over virtually all time series, including the 5-year period. Given that this is an asset class driven mainly by top-down themes and country selection, bond selection typically plays a subordinated role, at least in terms of aggregate returns."

 

 

 

 

 

Performance Daten in Charts per 26.03.2012:

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