Natixis IM: Kaum noch Chancen auf Ratifizierung des Brexit Vertrages

„Die Gemeinsamkeiten zwischen dem britischen Parlament und der EU sind aufgebraucht.“ Ein wie auch immer gearteter Ausgang des Brexit sei nicht vorhersehbar. Sowohl die britische Wirtschaft als auch die Privathaushalte müssten daher mit weiter anhaltender Unsicherheit leben.

Hier einige Stichworte:

• The 230 vote loss for May’s deal highlights how weak the UK positioning was from the start – after two and half years of negotiations, it still produced a deal that almost nobody wanted.

• It is unlikely that May’s government will lose the confidence vote tonight if only because Tories don’t want the future of Brexit driven by Labour.

• From here, May will continue to press MPs, but it’s hard to fathom her pulling a new, amenable deal out of her hat in a week or two if she couldn’t produce one after two years.

• The EU remains frustrated that the UK can’t clarify its intentions. This should hardly be a surprise given how split the UK electorate is over the issue. This has been a circular firing squad from day one with Theresa May in the center of it.

• After pulling the first vote in December, and then losing by a huge margin last night, we see how little space May has to operate in. There is virtually no common ground between what parliament will demand versus what Brussels will agree to.

• Our view since the referendum has been that a negotiated or soft Brexit would be difficult to achieve. Today’s vote was just the next step confirming how weak the UK position has been throughout the negotiation. Perhaps at the margin some MPs will now reconsider how dire the situation is staring down the barrel of a March 29^th deadline, but we think the chance of a deal passing in parliament now is less than 20%.

• May’s shrinking set of options include revoking article 50 – which she says she won’t do, calling for a 2^nd referendum – which she won’t support, or crashing out of the EU without a deal – which she views as somewhere between reckless and disastrous.  

• From our view, the most likely outcome is that May acquiesces and either delays or revokes article 50, effectively pushing the ‘pause button’ just before the train flies off the tracks. UK businesses and consumers should expect to live under continued uncertainty for quite a while longer.

• It is important to recognize that the Brexit referendum was about an ideal – a United Kingdom independent of the EU. So far, that ideal has not been matched by a realistic plan or process to deliver it. Until such a plan emerges, the withdrawal process will probably be put on hold.

David Lafferty, Chief Market Strategist, Natixis Investment Managers