Economics Forum: U.S. Anleihenmärkte im Fokus

Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum: 

"Government Shutdown, Debt Ceiling, mögliches Tapering und höhere Renditen auf Staatsanleihen lenkten den Fokus der Investoren auf die US Anleihenmärkte. Wie ist Ihre aktuelle Einschätzung der makroökonomischen Lage in den USA und welche Faktoren sollten Investoren genau beobachten?“

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Dag Lindskog,Chief Economist, DNB AM (08.10.2013):

"Certainly, the American economy faces a number of hard problems including the rapid buildup of government debt and sensationally skewed income distribution. Nevertheless, the economic outlook is fairly bright both in absolute terms and particularly in relation to the Eurozone and Japan. Inflation is if anything too low and it will very likely remain so at least over the next couple of years. Hence, investors shall focus on the growth prospects.
 
The US growth prospects are clearly positive over the medium to long run propelled by four important secular forces. First, the healing of the housing market has a long way to go before it’s over. Second, the surging production of shale gas and shale oil has already meant that the US has overtaken Russia as the world’s biggest energy producer. And you ain’t seen nothing yet! Third, the cheap dollar rate makes American companies very competitive. Fourth, the Fed is more than other central banks focused on both inflation and unemployment, i.e. on growth.
 
The short run is trickier. The reason is politics. The pessimists should expect disaster. The optimist should go for a solution."