Current question in the Economics Forum:
"What is your estimate for economic growth in the most important regions and sectors of the global economy and do you expect inflationary or deflationary trends in Europe next year? Which macroeconomic factors should investors monitor most in 2014?”
"GDP growth estimates 2014:
US 3.0
EMU 1.1
Japan 2.0
China 7.0
The clear improvement in confidence, which has been apparent in recent months, will translate into increasing economic activity in 2014. Reduced pressure from fiscal tightening (in US and Europe), low inflation and continued supportive monetary policy will add to that. Increasing confidence, favourable financing conditions and an improving profit outlook will result in a clear pickup in capex.
Flat commodity prices and high unemployment suggest inflation will remain in Europe. Some countries in the periphery will see further deflation, but overall inflation should remain positive. An increase in deflation risks will push the central banks into renewed action.
For financial markets, the key issue will be the balance between a strengthening global recovery (and the resulting improvement in the profit outlook) and the very gradual change in the Fed’s policy (which will be negative for markets). In our opinion, the first factor will take the upper hand in 2014."
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