Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum:
"Wie schätzen Sie das Wirtschaftswachstum in den wichtigsten Regionen und Sektoren der Weltwirtschaft im kommenden Jahr ein und erwarten Sie in Europa inflationäre oder deflationäre Trends? Welche makroökonomischen Faktoren sollten Investoren in Europa im Jahr 2014 am meisten beachten?"
"Global growth will be slightly accelerate in 2014 to 3.5%. The improvement will come mostly from advanced economies. Growth in emerging countries will be similar to that of 2013 (around 5%). The global deleveraging process, which is still underway in the major advanced economies, exert a deflationary pressure.
In the US, the cycle is very atypical: the on-going recovery has remained “jobless” and with low inflation. And the acceleration that we foresee will not change the picture much. In the eurozone, the recovery will be very sluggish and uneven. In France, Italy and Spain, internal demand will remain subdued and growth will not be strong enough to allow for an improvement of the job market. Deflationary pressure may thus intensify further in peripheral countries, while disinflation is on the menu in core eurozone economies. Financial fragmentation will continue to hamper credit in Southern Europe, especially to SMEs. Progress toward the Banking Union may help, but will probably yield substantial results only late in 2014. Against this backdrop, all central banks are trapped in non-conventional policies. There is no normalisation on the cards. The ECB will maintain a very accommodative bias. An increase in deflationary pressure, a major risk, would trigger additional non-conventional measures (LTROs and possibly asset purchases, either private or public)."
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