Current question in the Economics Forum:
"China is aiming to change its economic growth structure from an export driven model towards a strongly domestically oriented and consumer-based approach. How realistic are these ambitions and which concrete targets could be reached within what time span? Which industry sectors will be able to benefit from China’s modified economic strategy and how should investors assess these developments from a risk perspective."
"The transition from export oriented toward domestic demand driven economy has already happened in China. If we look at the contribution of export to the overall real GDP growth in China in 1Q-3Q 2013, it was a negative 0.1 ppts. The greater challenge for China is to rebalance the economy from investment based to consumption driven (4.3 ppt and 3.5 ppts contribution to the real GDP growth in 1Q-3Q 2013 respectively). The transition will be gradual and may take up to a decade. The new leadership, however, seems to be committed to the rebalancing reform. The abolishment of a one-child policy confirms this view. Obvious beneficiaries of this transition will be all consumer goods companies, tourism, leisure and entertainment, media, insurance, brokerage, healthcare, internet, etc. Potential risks primarily relate to execution. As the economy moves away from investments to consumption, the real GDP growth rate will slow down, which may reduce employment and cause social tensions."
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