Current question in the Economics Forum:
"China is aiming to change its economic growth structure from an export driven model towards a strongly domestically oriented and consumer-based approach. How realistic are these ambitions and which concrete targets could be reached within what time span? Which industry sectors will be able to benefit from China’s modified economic strategy and how should investors assess these developments from a risk perspective."
"Chinese leaders’ and authorities’ have so far been extremely successful in achieving their macro targets. The growth rate has long been remarkably high. A slowdown has occurred over the last couple of years but to a more stable pace. Furthermore, since the inauguration of the euro in 1999, the average inflation rates of China and the Eurozone are identical at 2%. These are very impressive achievements! This record clearly suggests that changing China’s economic growth structure from an export driven model towards a strongly domestically oriented and consumer-based approach can be achieved.
One of the main obstacles regards central and particularly regional and local authorities’ willingness to go along. Are they and the ruling Communist party prepared to actually yield their economic power to the individual consumer? If they are, the relevant time horizon is certainly a development over at least a decade."
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