Current question in the Economics Forum:
"China is aiming to change its economic growth structure from an export driven model towards a strongly domestically oriented and consumer-based approach. How realistic are these ambitions and which concrete targets could be reached within what time span? Which industry sectors will be able to benefit from China’s modified economic strategy and how should investors assess these developments from a risk perspective."
"Since 2008 , the Chinese growth model has already been significantly altered : reliance on net exports as a growth engine has significantly decreased and domestic demand has picked up part of the slack. The problem is that this has been achieved not by a faster increase in consumption but in investment and this increase has been largely fueled by a borrowing boom. Today the share of investment in GDP is close to 50%, one of the highest ratio ever seen , even in an emerging economy. So the challenge is now to move from investment -- and credit -- supported growth to consumption driven growth. This implies many social and political reforms and in particular faster wage increases and the building of a social safety net. How quickly this can be done will very much depend on the will and the skill of the new Chinese government. In any case, it will take many years… "
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