Current question in the Economics Forum:
"China is aiming to change its economic growth structure from an export driven model towards a strongly domestically oriented and consumer-based approach. How realistic are these ambitions and which concrete targets could be reached within what time span? Which industry sectors will be able to benefit from China’s modified economic strategy and how should investors assess these developments from a risk perspective."
Catherine Lebougre, Senior Emerging Market Economist, Strategy & Economic Research von Amundi (13.01.2014):
“The Chinese authorities are both far-sighted and determined. Growth relied on two strengths that are now weakening: an investment surplus responsible for bubbles (of a size that is probably just as enormous as the difficulties involved in deflating them in an orderly fashion) and an abundant, cheap workforce. To promote the new growth model, the government has few resources to take selective and faces contradictions (tensions on the interbank market were so violent that the monetary authorities had to backpedal immediately). Over the short run, the economy cannot do without “life support” of its government as shown by 2013. Over the medium, we are optimistic but the change will be accompanied by “fits and starts”. The strategy will obviously benefit the consumer goods sector and the SME’s.”
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