Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum:
"Die Bedeutung von Gold als Veranlagungsinstrument ist zuletzt gesunken - trotz einer starken Ausweitung der Bilanzsumme der Zentralbanken in den letzten Jahren. Wie beurteilen Sie die Entwicklung des Verhältnisses zwischen Goldmenge und Geldmenge und welche Faktoren sollten Investoren in diesem Zusammenhang in Zukunft beachten?“
Current question in the Economics Forum:
"The importance of gold as an investment instrument decreased recently despite strong expansion of central bank balance sheets in the past few years. How do you assess the development of the ratio between gold quantity and money supply and which factors should investors monitor in this context?”
"There is no reason to expect any stable relationship between central bank balance sheets and the price of gold. Of course one could argue that a central bank balance sheet measures the supply of money in circulation. If this supply increases faster than production, prices will have to rise. Gold being seen as a hedge against an inflation risk, its price should hence rise with the increase in the size of CB’s balance sheets in relation to potential GDP. But, applied to what happened during the last five years, this reasoning is flawed: the “money” supplied by the recent expansion of central banks’ balance sheets has not been circulating in the economy but helped stabilize the financial system and prevent the economy from falling in a deflationary spiral .Instead of increasing, as many predicted five years ago, inflation is now falling in many developed economies. Obviously investors are now acknowledging the result of this reality check!"