Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum:
"Die Bedeutung von Gold als Veranlagungsinstrument ist zuletzt gesunken - trotz einer starken Ausweitung der Bilanzsumme der Zentralbanken in den letzten Jahren. Wie beurteilen Sie die Entwicklung des Verhältnisses zwischen Goldmenge und Geldmenge und welche Faktoren sollten Investoren in diesem Zusammenhang in Zukunft beachten?“
" Looking back 50 years we can see 3 key phases for the gold price. The late 1960s to late 1970s saw elevated inflation, meaning that fiat currencies were falling in terms of goods and services, a good environment for gold. Early 1980s to 2000s saw a combination of decent growth and falling inflation, thus negative for gold. Since the early 2000s, major central banks, the Fed in particular, have been seeking to boost demand via exchange rate weakening policies (low interest rates & balance sheet expansion). Although inflation has not materialized, an environment in which central banks have sought to boost growth has also been good for gold.
The last 2 years have seen the gold price fall, but with no meaningful change in the underlying fundamentals: central banks are still seeking to lower their currencies to boost demand. Monitoring the supply of gold is difficult because the supply of paper gold (e.g gold ETFs that borrow not own the metal) is volatile and because central banks lend out their holdings. The key factor to monitor is whether economies return to a healthy state or whether they continue to require support. If the former, the gold price will continue to fall. If the latter, the gold price should perform well.
On the specific question of the relationship between the quantity of gold and changes in money supply we can find no meaningful research. The supply of gold is constrained by its scarcity (new mines are rare) and use as collateral. However, there is research on the relationship between the gold price and money supply which demonstrates the gold price increases 6-9 months after an increase in the money supply."
