Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum:
"Wie schätzen Sie das Wirtschaftswachstum in den wichtigsten Regionen und Sektoren der Weltwirtschaft im kommenden Jahr ein und erwarten Sie in Europa inflationäre oder deflationäre Trends? Welche makroökonomischen Faktoren sollten Investoren in Europa im Jahr 2014 am meisten beachten?"
"Strong UK growth will continue into 2014, with the economy recording more than 3% annual growth as pent up replacement demand is satisfied. The US, one of the best performing markets in the world during 2013, is expected to experience a similar growth rate of around 3% as the fiscal headwinds abate and businesses respond to the improving credit availability.
The US and UK will provide the main source of growth for the global economy next year - the main source of disinflation provided by Europe and the emerging economies. To compensate, they are expected to export their disinflation through currency weakness. The deflationary threat of further currency appreciation will force the ECB into further unconventional monetary policies to weaken the euro. This is likely to be through a combination of another LTRO in combination with a negative deposit rate or QE purchases of government bonds in proportion to the share of the central bank’s capital."
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