Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum:
„Wie beurteilen Sie die Entwicklung der wichtigsten Schwellenländer-Märkte im bisherigen Jahresverlauf und welche Länder sollten Investoren im aktuellen Umfeld besonders berücksichtigen oder meiden?“
Current question in the Economics Forum:
“How do you assess the market development of the most important emerging markets year-to-date and which emerging countries should investors focus on or avoid in the prevailing market environment?”
"We see the most value in Latin American markets such as Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, as well as in South Africa. We view other local currency bond markets of the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region as less fundamentally attractive and feel the Asian markets are expensive. In US dollar debt we favour some EMEA countries, including Kazakhstan where we see very good value in some quasi sovereigns backed up by high oil prices. We also favour Lithuania, due to its strong credit quality. Colombian external bonds are also favoured. Across US dollar denominated debt we see more value in quasi-sovereigns and corporates than in sovereigns, particularly for the larger, highly rated countries."
"We pursue a diversified, but very selective strategy in emerging markets. We are particularly encouraged by opportunities on offer in India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Turkey, Peru and Mexico.
For all the gnashing of teeth about India in 2013, its economy has grown at a real rate of 5% p.a. over the past two years. The country has a young population, low but growing GDP per capita and tremendous upcoming growth in the labour force. Together with rising urbanisation and an expanding middle class, this provides a backdrop for dynamic growth areas within the economy. Its significantly underdeveloped infrastructure poses both a challenge and opportunity.
Turkey was labelled as one of the ‘Fragile Five’ in 2013, but the policy steps the country implemented last year have been handsomely rewarded this year. The country has a robust long-term economic outlook, with very favourable demographics.
While there is near-term political uncertainty, valuations should normalise over time. Turkey’s flexible economy, strong government balance sheet, growing population, and labour participation suggest its growth potential should remain favourable, to the benefit of many domestic companies."
"Until now emerging markets have performed better than was expected at the beginning of the year(+8%). Countries that had been penalized last year by huge outflows when US rates started increasing (the fragile 5, with the biggest current account deficit) have retraced their underperformance. From a fundamental perspective, surprises on economic publications and earnings’ revisions are less negative than last year and this improving trend supports market performance. But the most spectacular outperformances are before all linked to political events and the promises of reforms in the wake of important elections (India, Brazil) while China is still struggling to deliver promised 7.5% growth. Betting on reform and structural changes is still a good choice. Markets affected by US rates increase should be more volatile in the coming months but less impacted than in 2013 since we expect a more controlled rates’ increase this time."
"Insgesamt sind wir mit dem bisherigen Jahresverlauf der wichtigsten Emerging Markets mit Ausnahme von Russland zufrieden. Sehr zuversichtlich sind wir derzeit für den indischen Aktienmarkt. Die Oppositionspartei BJP unter dem Spitzenkandidaten Modi konnte bei der Wahl im Mai überraschend die absolute Mehrheit erzielen. Dies gelang keiner Partei in den letzten 30 Jahren. Wir gehen davon aus, dass Modi mit den angekündigten und bereits umgesetzten Reformen in Indien einen positiven Investitionszyklus entfachen wird. Positiv sind wir weiterhin für Philippinen, das sich in der Mitte eines Investitionszyklus befindet und wo die getätigten Infrastrukturprojekte zu einem stabilen Wirtschaftswachstum und steigenden Konsum geführt haben. Vorsichtig sind wir derzeit in Russland, wo die Auswirkungen der Sanktionen aufgrund der Ukrainekrise noch nicht abschätzbar sind."
Zu den weiteren Experten-Beiträgen im aktuellen ECONOMICS FORUM:
