Economics Forum: U.S. Anleihenmärkte im Fokus

Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum: 

"Government Shutdown, Debt Ceiling, mögliches Tapering und höhere Renditen auf Staatsanleihen lenkten den Fokus der Investoren auf die US Anleihenmärkte. Wie ist Ihre aktuelle Einschätzung der makroökonomischen Lage in den USA und welche Faktoren sollten Investoren genau beobachten?“

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Anton Brender, Chief Economist, Dexia Asset Management (08.10.2013):

"Looking at the latest available indicators, the US economy was on track to achieve decent growth in 2013 given in particular the significant fiscal tightening that has taken place this year and the modest support the rest of the world has provided. The fact that the Fed did not start to taper in September, as was widely expected, should be viewed as a sign of cautiousness not of doubt in the strength of the recovery. The speed at which mortgage interest rates have moved up since Spring could, if left uncontrolled , have put at risk the rebound in residential investment that has now become an engine of growth. Delaying tapering proved to be an efficient way of bringing down fed funds rate expectations and hence also long term rates. The other risk the Fed had to guard against was fiscal uncertainty: the Congress deadlock could deal a blow to business and household confidence and thus significantly weaken the economy. In this respect, however, the power of the Fed is more limited: by keeping rates low for longer, it can only mitigate some of the impact of the current political paralysis. The behavior of business investment will tell to what extent the Fed has succeeded…"