Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum:
„Inwieweit beeinflusst das QE-Programm der EZB die Entwicklungen an den Kapitalmärkten und welche Auswirkungen erwarten Sie in Verbindung mit einem – sich weiter verbreitenden - Negativ-Zinsumfeld auf die Realwirtschaft und die Asset Management Industrie?“
Current Question in the Economics Forum:
“To what extent will the ECB’s QE programme influence the development and performance of capital markets and how do you assess the impact of QE and an increasingly widespread negative interest rate environment on the real economy and the asset management industry?”
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Paul Brain, Investment Leader Fixed Income, Newton (BNY Mellon) (19.02.2015):
"It seems strange to suggest bond prices will go down when the ECB is buying an extra €45bn a month, but this is certainly what happened in the previous examples of US QE. Apparently the market is prepared to believe the ECB will achieve its aim of stimulating growth along with inflation and as a result is happy to sell bonds to the ECB and invest in risk assets.
Unfortunately, the ECB has joined this party a bit late and the economy’s ability to respond to this printing of money is likely to be less now than it was when the US first began buying government debt following the 2008 global financial crisis.
Getting the new money out into the real economy also remains a problem. The banks are reluctant (owing to regulatory constraints) to expand their balance sheets and there is a lack of demand for the money. Perhaps a new Marshall Plan is required?"