Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum:
„Inwieweit beeinflusst das QE-Programm der EZB die Entwicklungen an den Kapitalmärkten und welche Auswirkungen erwarten Sie in Verbindung mit einem – sich weiter verbreitenden - Negativ-Zinsumfeld auf die Realwirtschaft und die Asset Management Industrie?“
Current Question in the Economics Forum:
“To what extent will the ECB’s QE programme influence the development and performance of capital markets and how do you assess the impact of QE and an increasingly widespread negative interest rate environment on the real economy and the asset management industry?”
Klicken Sie auf den entsprechenden Experten, um das gesamte Statement angezeigt zu bekommen:
Ibra Wane, Senior Equity Strategist, Amundi (19.02.2015):
"Large QE impact the economy through four main channels: wealth effect, interest rates, bank lending and exchange rate.
For the Eurozone (EZ), the two last ones should be the more effective as 1) differently to the US, Eurozone’s banks play a key role in financing 2)lower interest rates favour lower exchange rate, which is equivalent to a competitive devaluation. The two other channels should have a lessen impact. Regarding wealth effect, EZ’s household financial exposure is less important than in the US and less sensitive to variable rates. Lastly, interest rates channel is less effective in a deleveraging context.
Regarding capital markets, low interest rates for an extended period will continue to favour risky assets and the quest for yield. For EZ’s Equity, as part of the rerating has already been achieved, the most active trigger should be the earnings enhancement prompted by a weak €; As a rule of thumb, we expect a 12.5% EPS boost for a 10% € effective exchange rate decrease.
For the AM industry, the challenge will be to meet customer’s expectation with no more risk free assets at their disposal."
