Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum:
„Wie beurteilen Sie die jüngsten Entwicklungen der japanischen Wirtschaft und welche Aspekte sollten Investoren im aktuellen Umfeld besonders genau berücksichtigen?“
Current question in the Economics Forum:
“How do you assess the latest developments in the Japanese economy and which factors should investors monitor closely in the current market environment?”
Anton Brender, Chief Economist, Candriam Investors Group (19.08.2014):
"As expected (and as in 1997 after the previous VAT rate hike), activity contracted sharply in Q2 in Japan: private consumption declined 5%, residential investment 10.3 % and overall GDP fell by 1.7%. In the coming months, it is expected that the economy bounces back as the effects of the VAT rate hike fade away. Beyond that, the key for the Japanese economy to permanently get out of deflation is linked to the proper implementation of the measures decided by the government at the end of June and to the evolution of the total wages. While so far, employment has largely contributed to total wages’ growth, wages per employee have barely grown… while inflation is now back into positive territory."
"Given Japan’s perilous fiscal position, explanations for the nation’s status as a safe haven economy have usually focused on the country’s ample liquidity and long-held current account surplus. The latter of these has come under pressure in the past 18 months with the country posting its first deficit for the January-to-June period for 29 years. These headline figures hint at important shifts underway in the component data, with both the trade and income accounts seeing noticeable volatility in recent months. Export disappointments point to a structural decline in Japan’s export competitiveness, driven in part by capital and labour inflexibilities that have dampened innovation in its export sector. The fact that this is occurring despite a nearly 20% decline in the yen on a real, trade-weighted basis during 2013 shows how deeply these problems are ingrained.
Of course, most observers would point out that despite the troubles related to Japan’s external balance, the nation’s unshakeable income surplus should continue to offset these. Here too though, there have been some noticeable changes of late. In the June breakdown, the primary income balance fell to ¥418.2 billion from ¥1.5 trillion in May. While this was likely caused by Japanese companies’ tendency to pay dividends during June - thereby reducing direct investment income - there are other reasons to question whether expectations for portfolio investment income to grow are achievable. Many of the estimates for the outlook for portfolio investment point to an overseas economic recovery and a normalisation of DM interest rates. The prospect that rate rises may be delayed may force a reassessment of the sustainability of growth within the income account."
„Seit Anfang Juni entwickelte sich der japanische Aktienmarkt erstmals unabhängig von der japanischen Währung. Der Aufwärtstrend des Nikkei 225 etablierte sich ohne eine weitere Abschwächung des Yen. Dies ist ein Anzeichen, dass jüngst andere Faktoren von den Investoren stärker gewichtet wurden. In der Tat hat im ersten Quartal die wirtschaftliche Nachfrage erstmals seit sechs Jahren das potentielle Angebot überschritten - eine Situation, die auf steigende Preise hindeutet. Die Unternehmen müssten zukünftig ihre Investitionen erhöhen oder mehr Arbeitnehmer beschäftigen, um die zusätzliche Nachfrage zu befriedigen. Dies würde darauf hindeuten, dass die japanische Wirtschaft aus der fast zwei Jahrzehnte dauernden Deflation ausbrechen könnte. Bei der aktuell attraktiven Bewertung des japanischen Aktienmarktes würde dies in der Tat für weitere Kursavancen sprechen.“
